Over the last few days, I have had a number of discussions with readers, Twitter users, and media members about what the Yankees’ starting rotation will look like in October. One thing that came up repeatedly that I found to be quite surprising is that many fans do not see Freddy Garcia getting a start in the postseason. Despite the fact that his results point to him being the second best starter on the team to this point, many see his low-80′s stuff coming up short in the playoffs, as the perception is that power stuff is what wins in October. While there is some merit to that argument generally, I think it misses the point when it comes to Garcia. Let’s take a look at Freddy’s statistical place among his fellow Yankee starters, and then examine the possible reasons for keeping Garcia out of the postseason rotation.
Here is where Freddy ranks among Yankee starters in 2011 in the following statistical categories:
ERA: 2nd
FIP: 2nd
K/9: 4th
BB/9: 3rd
WHIP: 3rd
WAR: 2nd
I am pretty comfortable concluding that Garcia has been one of the Yankees top 4 starters this season, and an argument can be made that he has been their best pitcher after CC Sabathia. So why do people think he should be the odd man out when October rolls around?
1) He cannot beat good offenses: This belief likely stems from his struggles in his first two starts against Boston, but Garcia has actually been quite good against top offenses:
Most fans and analysts have contended that Colon has the stuff to defeat good teams while Freddy Garcia is a soft-tosser who will get beaten up by better offenses. However, to this point in 2011, the opposite has occurred, as Colon has struggled to defeat stronger hitting clubs while Garcia has been very solid against them. After looking over these numbers and Garcia’s gamelog, I would feel fine starting him against a top offense in October. He throws slop, but it seems to work, no matter the quality of the competition.
The numbers in the linked post are fairly clear: Freddy Garcia has actually been quite good against top hitting teams, to the extent that his numbers against them are actually better than his overall statistics. The claim that he cannot handle strong competition does not hold up to any sort of close examination.
2) His stuff is wrong for October: I do not want to get into a huge examination of whether the idea that power arms win in October is true, so let us just take it as a given. Even if it is true, the idea behind it is not that velocity wins in October, but that those who miss bats succeed in the postseason. While Garcia’s K-rate is not fantastic, it is still 4th on the club, and one of the guys ahead of him is non-contender A.J. Burnett. Garcia gets more swinging strikes than Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, and Bartolo Colon, and only the latter of the three has a better K-rate than him. While the Yankees have other options who throw harder than Garcia, they do not have many who actually use their power arms to miss bats. As friend of the blog Steve H. pointed out:
The new and “improved” Hughes 5.49 k/9 and 3.07 bb/9 (SSS). Garcia 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 for the year.
It seems hard to exclude Garcia from the postseason rotation for not beating good offenses and not missing bats when he does both better than his competition and has pitched better overall for most of the season. While plenty can change between now and October, Freddy Garcia currently belongs in the Yankees’ playoff rotation, probably with CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova.
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9 Responses to Dismissing Freddy Garcia
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I think the decision about who starts in October should be based on the work of all the non-CC pitchers over the second half of the season (with added weight given to who seems “hot” in August-September). It is really premature to worry about it so soon. We’ve seen some pitchers who throw “junk” succeed in the post-season. Indeed, sometimes the sharpt contrast between starters’ styles works to their mutual advantage.
Garcia will start Game 2 or 3 of the ALDS.
I doubt Burnett will be on the postseason roster and the Yanks will go with a Sabathia/Nova/Hughes/Colon ALDS rotation.
My prediction is Sabathia/Nova/Garcia/Hughes with Colon on standby, Burnett off the postseason roster the entire postseason.
Whatever starting pitcher the Yanks claim off waivers will get the Game 4 ALDS start if he shows he’s good enough to get it.
This has nothing to do with Freddy Garcia, but can someone please compare the tandem of Kimbrel-Venters 2011, to the Rivera-Wetteland tandem of 1996.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/stark_jayson/id/6885526/braves-bullpen-tag-team-untouchable
With advanced statistics I think there could be a case made that the 1996 duo is better than what the Braves currently have right now based on advanced statistics factoring in leagues and the offenses that each one had to face.
I have seen people dismiss Garcia as a Game 2 starter but I haven’t seen anyone suggest that he wouldn’t be in the rotation as long as he’s healthy. I don’t think we can guess how they’d line up after CC yet but I can’t see Garcia not being a frontrunner for one of the spots if he’s healthy.
My guess at the rotation is CC, Garcia, Hughes, Nova with Colon in the bullpen available for short or long relief. I’d be surprised if Burnett doesn’t make the roster but I could see him not getting used at all other than in a mop up role.
While I agree that if the season were to end today Burnett would be a non-contender for a playoff start, I don’t expect him to lose his regular season rotation spot and I think he’s probably only a couple of good starts away from being a contender for a playoff start.
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Moshe, a pitchers’s stats are interesting, sometimes predictive but it’s hardly the story. Velocity, in and of itself is only important to the guys that can’t pitch. Check out Tommy John’s 1979-80 seasons. He won 21 and 22 games with a staggering 3.6K/9 and 2.6K/9 respectively! And he did this throwing over 250 innings in both years at ages 36-37. It looked as though he was just playing catch and the batters were drunk. The point is, IF a pitcher can repeat his delivery and IF he can read the hitter’s swings then he can compete, and this “power pitcher” = post-season success is quite overblown, and has only become a mantra in the last 10 years or so. Giardi will pick the right guys, the guys that can “pitch” v “throw” because he’s seen it. First hand…
Assuming all 6 are physically able to go in the playoffs, the starting rotation would be Sabathia, Garcia, Colon and Nova, with the last 3 in some order. If Garcia doesn’t recover from his kitchen mishap or Colon shows continued signs of wearing down, Hughes would be inserted assuming he continues to pitch well, otherwise, he is likely to be in the bullpen.
Exactly how I see it.
Every time I hear Freddy mentioned for the postseason I think of junkballer Jeff Suppan – he did pretty well in the postseason despite the lack of a power fastball, and I don’t think he had any offering that was better than Freddy’s splitter.
I would throw CC, Nova, Freddy in ALDS, CC, Nova, Freddy, Hughes in ALCS/WS with Bartolo in the pen and AJ watching from home. Throwing Nova 2 and Freddy 3 would, I think, put less pressure on the rookie should the Yanks be down 2 games to none in any series.