- The big news today revolved around the signing of ex-Mariner closer, David Aardsma. Though Aardsma won’t return to playing until midyear, the major league contract guarantees him a spot on the roster for a $500k base salary plus incentives, as well as a team option in 2013. He’ll be equivalent to a trade deadline addition, without having to trade a prospect.
- LoHud gathered a quote from Joe Girardi today, talking about how Phil Hughes looks in camp. He believes this year’s conditioning has allowed Hughes to throw the ball with more arm speed, with more ease, and with a crisper curveball.
- Larry Koestler at River Ave Blues described the changes that Brooks Baseball is making to their Pitchf/x data. While Brooks is always the most current source of data, it fails at classifying many pitches, and makes it very hard to trust research that I’ve done. As someone that’s attempted to look at Ivan Nova‘s slider data, this update will finally fix this misclassified pitch, and Koestler attacked this right away.
- While Derek Jeter is keeping secrets about Mariano Rivera‘s possible retirement, Bronx Baseball Daily picked up a quote from Mark Teixeira that may shed doubt on what appears to be Mo’s last year.
- On Monday, Michael P over at Yankees Fans Unite discussed Alex Rodriguez‘ tenure with the Yankees, and how his recent struggles have changed our perspective on where he should hit in the order.
- And of course, for inquiring minds, Chad Jennings has today’s practices in Tampa.
Before this offseason was dominated by big name pitchers, the Yankee fan base was most excited about the upgrade at DH. Jorge Posada and his negative WAR were about to be replaced by the future allstar, Jesus Montero. Indeed, the change would have been immense based on ZiPS’ .271/.333/.486 triple slash and an a 112 OPS+. With Andruw Jones and now Raul Ibanez signed, it looks like the team has found its replacement for Montero in 2012. The DH position might take up two roster spots, but the Ibanez/Jones platoon may perform better in 2012 than Montero would have.
Can Ibanez stop his decline at 40 years old?
The plan, of course, is to play Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers, and Raul Ibanez against right-handed pitchers. In 2011, facing lefties, Jones hit .286/.384/.540, 144 OPS+ with eight homeruns. Facing righties, Ibanez hit .256/.307/.440, 100 OPS+ with 16 homeruns. Combined, the duo would have spotted .263/.326/.464 with 24 homeruns. While this is slightly worse than the projections for Montero, I suspect that Ibanez will have more luck hitting righties with the short leftfield porch. Yesterday, Matt wrote about a possible park factor affecting Ibanez and he found a spike of five more homeruns. In this case, we’re talking about expecting nearly 30 homeruns from this position, something that would be hard to pin on Montero in his first full season.
From the other perspective, Jones and Ibanez are aging players, with little value on the field, and declining numbers. On Monday, William talked about Ibanez’s numbers against righties, which were the lowest of his career in 2011. Such a drop in numbers is typical for a player turning 40, an age where numbers don’t typically rebound. Neither player adds much value on the field either, both are below average in the corner outfield spots.
Going into the future, Montero certainly has higher potential, but there is still reason to be excited about an Ibanez/Jones DH, especially when you compare to last year. Assuming there is a problem, Cashman has invited a plethora of backups and saved enough money to ensure that the position won’t be occupied with a negative WAR player like last year. Though it’s hard to replace a player like Montero, Ibanez and Jones could end up with better numbers in 2012 and that’s something to be excited about.
(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
A St. Louis Cardinals’ All Star is entering the final year of his contract and has given the team until the end of the spring to negotiate an extension. Talk about déjà vu all over again. Granted, Yadier Molina doesn’t come close to the stature of Albert Pujols, but during his seven years with the Cardinals, he has developed into one of the best backstops in the game, not to mention one of the most valuable players on his team. So, if Molina’s pending free agency has the St. Louis front office feeling a little uneasy, you really can’t blame them.
The ball is in the Cardinals’ court as to whether catcher Yadier Molina remains with the team past 2012. (Photo: AP)
Once thought of a defensive specialist, Molina’s offense has gradually improved over the years. However, his 2011 performance with the bat exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. Entering the year, it seemed as if the catcher had plateaued around league average, but instead, he turned in a breakout season. With an OPS+ and wRC+ of 126 and 123, respectively, Molina ranked among the top offensive catchers in the game. It remains to be seen whether he can repeat that performance in 2012, but if Molina has permanently established himself as an above average hitter, his value will skyrocket. Ironically, that’s probably bad news for the Cardinals.
As much as the Cardinals would benefit from Molina’s improved offense in 2012, if the catcher continues to hit, he could price himself out of St. Louis. Even though he’ll be 30 this year, catchers who can both hit and play top defense are uncommon on the open market, so if the Cardinals let him get that far, Molina is sure to attract considerable interest. What’s more, almost every high revenue team would likely be in the mix. In addition to the Yankees and Red Sox, who do not have a long-term commitment behind the plate, the Mets and Dodgers might also be in the market for a catcher by next offseason. Even teams like the Angels, Rangers, and Cubs could be looking to upgrade at the position, so unless Molina is willing to reverse course and offer the Cardinals a home team discount, it’s hard imagine him remaining in St. Louis beyond the up coming season.
Obviously our hope is to try to find a way to keep Yadi. If that means it’s something we can accomplish in the next six weeks, that’s great. If it means he has to go to free agency, our goal would still be to retain him. But we also realize once a player gets to free agency, odds do change.” – Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, quoted by STLtoday.com, February 21, 2012
One way the Cardinals could retain Molina would be to offer him an extension before the start of the season. However, doing so comes with risk. Although Molina’s pre-2011 profile still makes him a valuable player, last year’s breakout offensive season has taken him to another level. If the Cardinals make an offer based on that expectation, they’ll assume the risk of an offensive regression. On the other hand, if they wait to see if Molina can duplicate his 2011 results, and he does, the price tag will only get higher on the open market.
In a perfect world, the Cardinals would probably be better off if Molina was just a league average offensive player, especially when you consider his strong defensive reputation is bolstered by relatively under-monetized skills like pitch blocking and framing. That kind of a player has been a key member of the Cardinals for several seasons…one the team would likely still be eager to keep. However, because of his improved offense, Molina’s days in St. Louis could be numbered.
The Cardinals clearly want to retain their catcher, but the team’s ability to negotiate a palatable extension could come down to the level of confidence Molina has in his ability to maintain his improvement at the plate. GM John Mozeliak’s job is to see if he can leverage any uncertainty, along with emotions like the desire for security and loyalty, into a discount for his team. Otherwise, he’ll be just another in a long line of bidders next winter, regardless of how well Molina hits in 2012.
Last night, news we all knew would probably break broke. Eric Chavez re-signed with the Yankees for the 2012 season, agreeing to a small, incentive-laden deal to backup Alex Rodriguez and DH on occasion. In doing so, he unofficially closed the book on an exciting 2012 off-season. Per MLB Trade Rumors:
The Yankees have agreed to terms with third baseman Eric Chavez on a one-year, Major League contract, pending a physical, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links). The deal is worth $900K and also includes incentives, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.
The deal isn’t bad. A number of us here at TYA, myself included, have expressed varying degrees of contempt towards Eric Chavez’s future with the team. Chavez is an injury prone, weak hitting, average fielding corner infielder on a team with Eduardo Nunez. His presence is somewhat redundant, even at his present best. Fortunately, like another recent signee in Raul Ibanez, Chavez was signed to a small contract for next season. After making $1.5 million last season, his base salary will be cut nearly in half. At $900,000, Eric Chavez merely needs to produce at slightly above replacement level to justify his contract.
Still, the question must be asked. What does Eric Chavez bring to the table at this point in his career? Why bring him back at all? From Chavez’s perspective, this deal makes some sense. He’s made nearly $80 million over his career and at 33-years-old is rich well beyond his needs. He can afford to take a pay cut to stay with a winner. If he wants to resurrect his career, Yankee stadium, especially with a fragile Alex Rodriguez manning third base, isn’t a bad place to try.
But from the Yankees perspective? Chavez is depth. Particularly mediocre depth. What worries me is the potential for an expanded role. If the Yankees – Cashman, Girardi, and Co. – see Chavez as more than a Nunez’s big brother, could that cost the 2012 team games? Could the depth provided by an Eric Chavez allow for a false sense of security?
Maybe. Chavez isn’t a bad backup at this point in his career. He’s fragile, but playing once a week he should stay healthy. He’s no longer a Gold Glove defender, but statistically he’s performed reasonably at the position of late. He OPS’d .676 last season, well below league average but at or above replacement level. But the Yankees already have, or had, that kind of player. Eduardo Nunez OPS’d a more robust .698 last season, stole 22 bases, and while his defense was far below average he was able to fill in at short, third, and in the outfield. Given another year to adjust to the big league level there’s almost no question Nunez would be a more capable short to mid term fill in.
There’s also some additional depth here. Ramiro Pena should be nowhere near the starting lineup, what with his career .554 OPS, but he’s a more than capable defender at third and short, a good baserunner, and a young, cost controlled talent. Brandon Laird is, like Pena, far from perfect as a long term option. After a strong 2010 season AA, Laird struggled at Scranton last season and hit under .200 during a cup of coffee in the big leagues. But he’s got some power, plays third, first, and left field, and he’s 24. Can Pena or Laird measure up to Chavez? The answer is likely no, and the upgrade might be worth $900K plus incentives. The question is whether another option was needed with Nunez, Pena, and Laird already in the fold.
Again, though, the greatest risk with Chavez is that the Yankees give him an expanded role. Chavez played in 58 games last season. This was out of necessity, with Alex Rodriguez missing 40% of the season. Chavez is a better option than Pena or Laird in the short term and hopefully Rodriguez can stay relatively healthy going forward. But if Rodriguez is to miss significant time next season, and this is possible, the Yankees need to make a move. To me, this move signifies a lack of confidence in Nunez as a short term third base option. If Chavez is expected to fill in for any extended period of time, the results could be disastrous.
One of the biggest narratives during the first few weeks of camp is what kind of shape the players are in. Last year, CC Sabathia lost 25 pounds, while Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain were shipped off to the fat farm. I don’t believe that a direct connection between performance and weight exists, but Sabathia ended up having one of his best seasons, while Hughes and Joba ended up on the DL. This year is no different from last, so I’ve compiled a list of who appears to be in shape and who is out of shape.
Hughes at camp.
In the best shape of their lives…
- Phil Hughes- Anyone that has followed Hughes on twitter, knows that he spent a huge chunk of his offseason at Athlete’s Performance. The steps he took paid off according to Kevin Kernan, who called him the “new buffed up Phil Hughes.” Hughes is probably the player I’m most excited for, his struggles in 2011 and prior were largely due to health, and with 2012 being a make-or-break season, there is a lot to expect out of the 25 year old.
- Russell Martin- According to Russell Martin himself, he vows to be the “fittest Yankee.” After spending the last few months following an intense Mixed Martial Arts program at Adrenaline Performance, Martin believes he’s in best shape of his life, as does his trainer. With a competitive free agency year approaching for the catcher, there are a number of reasons for him to be in such shape.
- Andruw Jones- Ok, so no one is claiming that Jones is in the best shape of his life, those years are long gone unfortunately, but he appears to have approached the offseason in the right way. After undergoing knee surgery, he has fully recovered and looks to provide the team with more speed and better defense if necessary. Of last year, Jones said, “It was bad. I’m not going to lie to you.” This year seems to be a different story, expressing, “I’ve been running a lot. My goal was to get back in great playing shape and be a little lighter on my legs so I can go out there and play any time they call my name.”
- CC Sabathia- Sabathia appeared to have regained any weight that he lost last offseason during last year, and with the contract extension handed out by the Yankees, maintaining a healthy weight was clearly an issue discussed by the team. He returned to camp this year at the same low weight as last year, 290 pounds, and the Yankees plan for him to maintain that during the season. Though I don’t expect Sabathia to pitch any better, the goal is to keep him healthy for the next six years.
Been eating too much Cap’n Crunch…
REUTERS/Steve Nesius
- Joba Chamberlain- Most of the talk about weight gain last year came from Joba Chamberlain, and though I haven’t read anything about it this year, the pictures I’ve seen aren’t too flattering. While it might have been a big concern in camp last year, Joba showed no ill effects and was clearly in better shape than Phil Hughes. It would be hard to blame his DL stint, Tommy John surgery, on weight gain.
- Michael Pineda- It would be hard to tell that Pineda gained weight without him telling the media. The Yankees’ new pitcher committed to returning to 270 pounds during his first few days at camp, and should have no problem reaching that by the beginning of the season. He can keep the 10 pounds, as long as has a good changeup in April.
- Freddy Garcia- Well, look for yourself.
REUTERS/Steve Nesius
If anyone on the Yankees had a tale of two seasons, it was Derek Jeter. In April, May, and June, he had the following wOBA/wRC+ splits: .261/56; .321/97; .923/77. Once the summer got into full swing, though, so did Jeter: .352/118; .398/149; .344/113 for the months of July, August, and September. I’ll admit that for most of the last two seasons, I’ve been one of Jeter’s biggest detractors. I was, however, especially happy when Jeter righted the ship in the second half of this season. I’m hoping he can ride that second half success into 2012 and keep up his production. What should we watch in 2012? Like I said for Brett Gardner, what we’ve got to watch is more approached based.
By both the BIS and Pitch F/x data, Jeter has dropped off significantly against the fastball. This is disconcerting because he had usually been pretty strong against the old number one. When you think about it for more than a second, though, it makes sense. After all, Jeter is an older player and older players’ bats tend to slow down. It is worth noting that Jeter did very well against curveballs in 2010 and 2011, so he is compensating somewhere. We’ll have to see if pitchers change up their approaches against Jeter and just start throwing him exclusively hard stuff.
One of the biggest problems for Jeter at the start of 2011 was his propensity to hit the ball on the ground. In April, nearly three-quarters of his batted balls ended up on the ground. Since ground balls usually end up as outs, Jeter’s production plummeted. Let’s keep an eye on Derek’s groundball rate and see how it affects his production in the early going of 2012.
- Eric Chavez was officially resigned tonight. The major league deal is worth $900,000, but in order to make room on the 25-man roster, the team will likely move Pedro Feliciano to the 60-day DL.
- News from camp has Russell Martin talking about his offseason training. He vowed to be the “fittest Yankee” and was quoted saying,
“If there’s any guys in more shape than me, I’d be surprised. If there are, I’d be happy, because I’m coming ready this year.”
- Mike Axisa wrote about the upcoming free agent market and how the Yankees can avoid some very high priced contracts if they extend Martin now.
- Mike Mazzeo of ESPN New York collected a few quotes from A.J. Burnett following his trade to Pittsburgh. Burnett appears far from bitter, and astonishingly understanding about the situation. His pitching might not have stood up to take the New York market, but his personality did.
- Finally, for more information on today’s workouts in Tampa, Chad Jennings again summarizes the schedule from camp.
We have already seen a number of analyses of the Yankee farm this offseason (from Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein, among others), and this otherwise quiet Tuesday has blessed us with two more takes on the system. Baseball America released its annual top 100 prospects list today, and as a bonus Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus released a writeup on the top 5 prospects in the Yankee system. Both provide interesting (and different) takes on the Yankees’ top prospects, which gives some insight as to the high risk/high reward nature of the current Yankee farm.
4 Yankee prospects cracked the venerable BA list, and the names will not surprise anybody. Manny Banuelos was the top Yankee prospect according to BA, checking in at #29. This more or less represents the consensus ranking of Banuelos by other sources, and the lower variability makes sense because Banuelos has already pitched at higher levels. Dellin Betances, the second Yankee on the list, checks in at #63, though there has been substantial variation in his ranking by other sources (likely because there is some doubt about whether Betances can develop the consistent command and mechanics to stick as a starter).
Gary Sanchez checks in as the #3 Yankee prospect on the BA list, and #81 overall. BA justified the low ranking by citing Sanchez’s well-documented defensive and makeup concerns, and while I agree that these are both potentially serious problems, this is still lower than I have seen him ranked anywhere else. I wonder if this is perhaps BA compensating for ranking Sanchez as the #30 prospect last year despite playing almost the entire season in rookie ball. While Sanchez’s defense and makeup issues were serious this year, a 50+ place drop seems a little excessive for a guy who despite his early struggles put together an OPS above .800 as an 18 year-old catcher in full season ball. Mason Williams is close behind Sanchez at #85, which is probably about where I would place him (Keith Law was much higher on him, and Kevin Goldstein was a little lower).
While the BA list represents the aggregated opinions of several writers and the scouts they speak with, Jason Parks’ list of the Yankees’ top 5 (which EJ posted on earlier), displays a very different viewpoint. Perhaps because it is the work of a person who is a scout by trade, the list is much heavier on scouting than numbers, and probably more focused on ceiling than your typical industry list. Honestly, it could very well be a “highest ceilings” list rather than a top prospects list, with Sanchez on top, followed by Banuelos, Betances, Williams, and Angelo Gumbs. Parks does put an 80 speed grade on Williams (the highest possible grade), which illustrated the exciting potential he has.
As EJ mentioned earlier, Gumbs at #5 is a huge surprise. I am fairly high on him relative to most other sources, but wouldn’t even consider putting him at #5 at this point (he may not even be the #5 prospect on the Charleston Riverdogs this year, depending on who you ask). Even though I am not as aggressive as Parks is on Gumbs, I think Parks explains well what there is to like about Gumbs: he has great athleticism, the ability to profile at an up-the-middle position (2b or CF), and excellent bat speed that allows power projection down the road. Even though his 2011 production was not that impressive, the combination of loud tools and youth gives Gumbs star potential if everything works out.
As I have discussed previously, a lot of the strength of the Yankee farm system is at the lower levels. This gives the farm a ton of variability in terms of possible outcomes, with huge boom/bust potential. While somebody like Banuelos or Betances seems to project as a major league reliever at worst, the downside for the lower-level guys is never making it to the majors. Nonetheless, there is some serious upside among guys like Sanchez, Williams and Gumbs, as well as others like Dante Bichette and Jose Campos, that should make this crop of prospects fun to watch in 2012.
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Jason Parks has a great take on his top-5 Yankee prospects. Usually, we tend to evaluate prospects from an optimistic perspective. This is probably a natural way to think, but doesn’t take into account the fact that most prospects fail. Park instead frames his discussion of those prospects by looking at what could go wrong with each one of them.
I would like to add my two cents to this discussion. Here are Park’s top five prospects, with commentary:
- Gary Sanchez. Parks offers the best quote ever on Sanchez’s power: “The skies will turn red with the blood of his enemies.” He clearly loves Sanchez as a prospect, and is one of the few experts out there to rate him above Banuelos. I like Sanchez too, but I think that even Parks understates the downside Sanchez can bring to the table. Sanchez does in fact have a hitch in his swing that needs to be corrected. Sanchez struck out 93 times in 82 games last season, and 44 times in 47 games while mashing through the 2010 short season. Those kinds of strikeout rates are correctable, but could also linger. Sanchez was good enough to slug .485 and OPS .820 despite the high rate, but the problem could get worse. We don’t want Sanchez to become an empty power threat who is going to hit .230 every season. That’s difficult to sustain.
- Manuel Banuelos. Parks offers an interesting diagnosis of Banuelos that I’ve never heard before: he comes off as underwhelming. Hitters don’t see to be fooled as much as they should by his fastball, his curveball doesn’t seem to have the bite it should, etc. I’m not particularly concerned by any of this. For all the hype about his poise and mental abilities, Banuelos was still a 20 year-old playing above his head in Double-A. These are the types of complaints we should expect to see. The stuff is still there, as is the poise. I expect some real fireworks out of Banuelos coming up soon. Parks only briefly mentions size with Banuelos, but I think that’s where we should focus when talking about what could go wrong. Banuelos is a slight 5’10″, and will need to hold up to big workloads. I think he’ll do that, but the downside could involve either a shift to the bullpen or an injury-prone existence for Banuelos.
- Dellin Betances. Parks again mentions the bullpen conversion, which I think is overblown. Parks emphasizes Betanaces’ control issues. He’s right on, and I have nothing to add. What is missing, however, are Betances’ health problems. He has missed time for a number of ailments, and took a full 6 seasons in the minor leagues to hit his career high of 126 1/3 innings in 2011. Unlike Banuelos, Betances has missed lots of time for very baseball related injuries, ranging from the shoulder to the back to his Tommy John-repaired elbow. Staying healthy is tough for Betances.
- Mason Williams. Parks is afraid that he is too small and slight to produce any real power against MLB fastballs. This is definitely a concern, but I think Brett Gardner demonstrates that a player with his speed and defensive abilities can succeed at the MLB level with a light bat. Williams has a lot more potential with the bat than does Gardner, even if we’re talking about a slender guy with a sweet swing. A consistent .420 Slg% would go wonders given Williams’ speed. The downside that I would emphasize would be about how little we’ve actually seen of his abilities. Williams has completely changed expectations for his prospect status in one short season performance, and we should regard that change with skepticism.
- Angelo Gumbs. Parks rates Gumbs in this spot. No one else does, but that’s his opinion. Parks generally regards Gumbs has a high-ceiling, super-athletic project that needs a lot of seasoning. I think we in the Yankee sphere tend to understate how high his ceiling is. He’s an up-the-middle prospect with a bat with middle of the order type potential. Parks labels him a future center fielder, which is generally how I feel about Gumbs as well. Parks and I agree on the downside though: he’s just so raw and green that Gumbs has a long way to go. He’s even unlike a guy like Bichette or Williams who may be green, but puts their fully-functioning skillset on display at a young age. Gumbs is still about projection more than the here and now.
Courtesy of The AP
(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
A little over a year ago things were looking sunny for Brandon Laird. He was fresh off an MVP season in the Double-A Eastern League thanks to a .291/.355/.523 line (.383 wOBA), 47 XBH, 23 HR, 90 RBI in 454 PA, and got a late-season bump to Triple-A (.270 wOBA in 127 PA). He had elevated himself to the top half of most Yankee top prospects lists, and heading into 2011 Spring Training he had an outside shot at nudging his way into the discussion for the utility infielder role with a good performance. Since then, however, things have taken a downturn for Laird and he finds himself heading into Spring Training this year dangerously close to falling off the prospect radar and the Yankees’ radar as a legit 25-man roster candidate. How did this happen so quickly and should it even be happening?
The simple explanation for Laird’s prospect status decline is his poor 2011 showing. Laird went into his first full Triple-A season with high expectations after his 2010 breakout for Trenton, but failed to live up to those expectations, posting a disappointing .260/.288/.422 line in 489 PA, good for just a .310 wOBA. That, combined with the emergence of Eduardo Nunez at the Major League level and the presence (limited as it was) of Eric Chavez on the roster, resulted in Laird only getting a 25-plate appearance cameo in September once rosters expanded. 25 plate appearances is hardly enough time for anyone to make a big impression on the Yankee decision makers, and in Laird’s case it’s hardly enough time to diffuse any negative impressions that could have been made by his Triple-A performance. In any case, Laird comes into 2012 in an almost identical position to the one he found himself in last season and with a lot less luster.
On paper, Laird is an ideal candidate to fill a utility bench spot for the Yankees in 2012. He’s young, cheap, can play three defensive positions (third base, first base, left field in a pinch), and has enough raw power and plate discipline to hold his own at the dish and contribute in what would be limited at-bats. His problem in getting a chance to show his worth is two-fold right now; Laird is a low-ceiling prospect who doesn’t do anything amazingly well to begin with, and he’s coming off a down year at the highest Minor League level. His greatest asset, power, hasn’t really been tested at the Major League level, and his 3.5% BB rate in 2011 doesn’t exactly jive with his reputation as a hitter with good plate discipline or the Yankees’ organizational philosophies when it comes to hitting. And since the Yankees are likely working off his 25 September plate appearances and his less-than-sparkling numbers from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, it’s understandable to a degree why Laird would be passed over again for other options.
The Yankees’ actions this offseason indicated that they were not only pursuing those other options when it came to filling that last utility bench spot, but also that they don’t seem to have any confidence in Laird’s ability to do the job at all. How else do you explain the Yanks pursuing guys like Bill Hall and Eric Chavez in free agency? Hall is coming off a horrific 2011 campaign with the Giants and Astros (.211/.261/.314, .252 wOBA, -1.6 WAR in 199 PA) and isn’t likely to have a major bounce back at age 32. And even though the latest reports still make it sound like he’s not a lock to be signed, the Yankees have been linked to Chavez for a one-year reunion since almost the minute the offseason started despite the fact that he’s a walking DL stint with little to no power left and turned 34 in December. The most recent 2012 CAIRO projections for these guys doesn’t exactly paint a rosy picture:
- Hall- 302 PA, .221/.281/.369 slash, .285 wOBA, 0.4 WAR
- Chavez- 149 PA, .240/.296/.356 slash, .288 wOBA, 0.2 WAR
Told ya. That’s bottom-of-the-barrel production no matter who you are and it doesn’t add up to winning baseball, even from the last guy on the bench. This is what makes Laird’s situation so strange. It would be one thing if the Yankees were bringing in guys who they could definitively say were an upgrade over Laird, but that just isn’t the case with Hall and Chavez. For the sake of comparison, here’s Laird’s CAIRO projection for 2012:
- Laird- 392 PA, .247/.292/.407 slash, .304 wOBA, 0.8 WAR
That line is also nothing to write home about, but it’s still better than Hall or Chavez, and it comes with the added bonus of Laird being more likely to exceed the projections because of his youth and lack of Major League experience. Hall and Chavez are known commodities at this point in their respective careers, and they are commodities on the downward trend. Laird should be the exact opposite because of his youth and lack of MLB track record. His ceiling as a general Major League player might not be very high, but as a backup utility player his ceiling should be much higher than what the Yankees could expect from Hall or Chavez. Despite that, the Yankees haven’t given any indication that he’s in the mix for that spot.
Maybe this point is overblown and we just haven’t heard a lot of about Laird heading into Spring Training because he’s already on the 40-man roster, but it certainly seems like Laird has become a victim of his own low ceiling and his poor 2011 showing. In Laird, the Yankees have a player who can play multiple defensive positions and swing the bat with some power. His age, the cheap cost to the team that comes with it, and extra options should make him an even more attractive bench option than guys like Bill Hall and Eric Chavez, low-risk as they are, and yet Laird comes into camp seemingly already penciled into the 3B spot for Triple-A again. There isn’t much Laird can do there that’s going to help his career more than getting playing time and at-bats at the Major League level will, and at 24 his window of opportunity is already starting to close. If the Yankees have plans for Laird, be it as a future piece of the bench or a trade chip, it would behoove them to give Laird a longer look this spring.
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