Yankee Starters Against Top Offenses (Updated)
A number of people have asked me how the Yankees starters have performed against better offenses, so I compiled the relevant numbers for the 5 Yankees’ starters with the most innings pitched. I used wRC+ to determine the 7 best offenses in the AL (Bos, NY, Tex, Det, Tor, TB, KC) and the top 6 in the NL (STL, NY, MIL, CIN, PHI, ARI). I did not include appearances out of the bullpen. Remember, the statistics against good teams are almost certainly going to be much worse than the pitcher’s numbers overall for most players (Note that the worst of the included AL clubs averages 4.27 runs per game, and that 3 of them score more than 5 runs per game. Adjust your expectations accordingly).
| Teams | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 101 | 106 | 49 | 32 | 96 |
| Det | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Bos | 5.2 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Tex | 6.1 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Det | 7 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Tex | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Bos | 6.2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Tor | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Bos | 6.2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Tex | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| Mil | 7.2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| TB | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| Tor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| TB | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| BOS | 6 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| TB | 8 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
Total: 15 GS, 101 IP, 106 H, 49 ER, 32 BB, 96 K, WHIP: 1.36, ERA: 4.37
AJ Burnett:
| Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 65.2 | 60 | 36 | 31 | 54 |
| Det | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Tor | 5.1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Tor | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Det | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| KC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| TB | 5.2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| NY | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Bos | 5.2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Mil | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| TB | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| TB | 5.1 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Total: 11 GS, 65.2 IP, 60 H, 36 ER, 31 BB, 54 K, WHIP: 1.39, ERA: 4.94
| Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 81 | 85 | 30 | 25 | 48 |
| Tex | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tor | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Det | 7 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| KC | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Bos | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| NY | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tor | 6.1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Bos | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Cin | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Mil | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| NY | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tor | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| TB | 6.2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Bos | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Total, 14 GS, 81 IP, 85 H, 30 ER, 25 BB, 48 K, WHIP: 1.36, ERA: 3.33
| Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 53.1 | 65 | 29 | 19 | 48 |
| Tor | 6.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Det | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Tex | 4.1 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Bos | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Tor | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| NY | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| TB | 5.2 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Tor | .2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| TB | 6.1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| Bos | 4.2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Total: 10 GS 53.1 IP, 65 H, 29 ER, 19 BB, 48 K, WHIP: 1.58, ERA: 4.89
| Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 56 | 62 | 25 | 23 | 32 |
| Bos | 4.1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Tex | 4.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Tor | 6.1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Tex | 7.1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| KC | 3 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| TB | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| NY | 6.2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Tex | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Cin | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| NY | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Total, 10 GS, 56 IP, 62 H, 25 ER, 23 BB, 32 K, WHIP: 1.52, ERA: 4.02
Takeaways: While CC Sabathia‘s numbers are not spectacular, he maintains a strong K/BB rate against good offenses and his FIP is actually 3.32 against them. Basically, while his results have been good but unspectacular, his peripherals suggest that he is actually well above average even when facing the best competition. AJ Burnett is only a bit worse against good teams, as is Ivan Nova, who seems to have gotten lucky in these situations but looks to be a reasonably adequate option for a postseason start.
Most interesting to me are the results for Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. Most fans and analysts have contended that Colon has the stuff to defeat good teams while Freddy Garcia is a soft-tosser who will get beaten up by better offenses. However, to this point in 2011, the opposite has occurred, as Colon has struggled to defeat stronger hitting clubs while Garcia has been very solid against them. After looking over these numbers and Garcia’s gamelog, I would feel fine starting him against a top offense in October. He throws slop, but it seems to work, no matter the quality of the competition.
Update: A reader asked for the FIP’s on all 5 starters, so here they are:
CC Sabathia: 3.32
A.J. Burnett: 4.95
Freddy Garcia: 4.10
Bartolo Colon: 4.95
Ivan Nova: 4.41
Just for comparison:
Justin Verlander: 2.82 in 89.1 IP
Jered Weaver: 3.46 in 74.2 IP
Josh Beckett: 3.12 in 76 IP
Jon Lester: 4.60 in 74 IP
Using FIP, CC becomes the clear leader of the pack, while Garcia and Nova continue to look solid against top competition. Once again, Colon and Burnett bring up the rear.
Tagged with: A.J. Burnett • Bartolo Colon • CC Sabathia • Freddy Garcia • Ivan Nova • New York Yankees • Rotation • Starters
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You have just shown why the Yanks should not give Sabathia seven or eight years after he opts out and should let him go if he insists on either.
He’s a #4 starter against teams who can hit because a 4.37 ERA certainly isn’t ace, #2, or #3 like.
He is a 4.37 ERA pitcher against the better offenses. That is unacceptable for an ace in a potential walk year. That’s not cutting it when he has to face other aces like Beckett, Verlander, Halladay etc. in the postseason. I’m alarmed by that ERA. I hate to say it but he’s a fraud this year. 0-4 vs. the Red Sox, this ERA. He can dominate the weaker teams but he’s total #4 against the stronger ones.
An ace is supposed to post an ERA as closer to 0 than 5 against all teams, Sabathia’s 0.63 runs from a 5 ERA vs. some of the postseason-contending teams. I would be furious with Sabathia if he pitched a complete game 4-3 loss cuz the Yanks gave him 3 runs and he should’ve at least sent it to extra innings i.e. allowed just 3 runs through nine so Mo could pitch the next three innings if need be if the game was at home, two innings away (Robertson the 12th and 13th, Soriano the 14th and 15th, and so on.)
His FIP is 3.32 against them and his peripherals are solid, which suggests he’s just been a bit unlucky. Also, you need to see how those pitchers do against good teams. I bet CCs numbers are pretty comparable. Id give him pretty much anything he asked for.
You really want him at age 37, 38, and possibly 39?
It’s all skill with varying degrees of success or in the case of Sabathia vs. Boston this year SUCKcess haha, not luck. You can’t be unlucky against the good-hitting teams and skillful against everyone else.
Contrary to what some people on here think, I adore Sabathia, but not so much I would give him, an already heavy 31 year old, more than five years and a blank check, and I would not let Boston or the Angels scare me into overpaying for him in years and money.
‘Say he opted out and wanted seven years at $25M per for $175M. I’d counter with 5 years and $131M ($26.2M a year) and tell him that’s $69M for 2009-11 + $131M for 2012-16 for $200M total across 8 years, still a record amount of total money for a pitcher and a record average annual salary for a pitcher. Being paid $200M across 8 years, an average of $25M per year, is more than generous. If that’s not enough, thanks for the memories.
If he takes 5 years at $26.2M per as just $3.2M a year more for the next four years plus an extra year tacked on for $26.2M, that’s his hangup. I’d even say if he thinks he’s so good, he won’t opt out, he’ll play out the rest of his contract, and he’ll be so good 2012-15, he’ll get a new 3 or 4 year deal at the end of it. Would he really get just a year if he had a good walk year (2015)? No, he’d probably get two for nice money.
That opt-out was (stupidly) given in the event that Sabathia didn’t want to pitch in New York anymore, not so he could get more money/a new, better contract. That was the unwritten reason (opting out to escape from NY.) If he wants to turn it into his opportunity to hold up the Yanks, then he should be told five years and that’s it.
Nice post.
Can you post the FIP for each of these pitchers against the 7 best offenses?
Yeah, Ill do it when I get home.
Could you guys put together CC’s numbers against top offenses for the past 2 years please? I just think it would prove some posters wrong that he can’t beat good teams. I seem to remember CC getting the best of Boston a number of times in 2009 & 2010. True he’s struggled this year, but I’d bet on that being more of a fluke than a trend.
Joe G,
Please see my post on CC vs. Boston from last week.
Thanks Larry.
Why? Because CC’s a good pitcher? :wink:
If CC’s been a bit unlucky this year, then I can’t wait for the correction. That of course, is why you don’t give up on good players who are stuggling. If you do, you’ll miss out on those hot streaks. That’s also why smart fans are patient.
Post is updated.
Thanks for posting the FIPs, Moshe
My pleasure.
Why do you want him at ages 37, 38, and possibly 39?
Only Randy Johnson was great at all those ages as far as recent times Hall Of Fame starting pitchers go. Sabathia is not Randy Johnson, not even close.
Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux had nice 37-39s, but those two at 37-39 wouldn’t be worth what Sabathia’s making now unless a team was really stupid and desperate.
Tom Glavine had a bad 37-39.
Pedro Martinez hasn’t pitched since age 37 and he barely pitched at that age.
These guys, the first four 300+ game winners, are all future Hall Of Famers (yes Clemens, too, cuz he won three Cys way before the accusations spurred by a rat which Brian McNamee is.)
Mike Mussina had a great final year but was good or so-so in the two years before that.
Curt Schilling was the reverse Mussina: great third to last year, good or so-so in the final two years.
Petttite had a nice final few years.
Bartolo Colon and Tim Wakefield are the only current AL starting pitchers who are 37 or older. The only 37 or older current NL starter I can think of still kicking it is Derek Lowe. Jamie Moyer took off this year and will pitch next year, or so he says.
Recent history shows Sabathia won’t be productive or ace/#2 like productive at age 37-39 if he even keeps pitching at 37 or older.
Also, if Sabathia is worth 7 or 8 years after this year, why didn’t the Yanks just give him a 10 or 11 year contract (2009-18/19)? What’s the difference between 3 years then 7 or 8 and 10-11? Or why not give him 8 or 9 years after 2008?
Sometimes you have to pay for the 3 adequate years at the end to get the 4 great ones at the start. I want those great ones.
[...] more: Yankee Starters Against Top Offenses | New York Yankees blog … AKPC_IDS += "30170,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
Terrific and timely piece Mo. Just more ammo for my “you don’t need to throw 95 to pitch in the AL East” arguement.
[...] stems from his struggles in his first two starts against Boston, but Garcia has actually been quite good against top offenses: Most fans and analysts have contended that Colon has the stuff to defeat good [...]
[...] Freddy Garcia can’t pitch against good offenses, but as Moshe Mandel of The Yankee Analysts recently pointed out, that is simply not the case. In fact, he’s arguably been their [...]