Yesterday, Mark Teixeira went 1-4 with a walk. His season line now reads as .239/.348/.500. Objectively, that’s not all that bad. The IsoD (.109) and IsoP (.261) are actually pretty damn fantastic. If we were to apply those numbers to a .300 hitter, his line would be .300/.409/.561, which would be MVP caliber, even if the guy played first base or a corner outfield spot.
Going into yesterday, Mark Teixeira’s season obviously didn’t look like we wanted it to, given the lower average that’s dragging down his raw OBP and raw SLG, even if the peripherals match up. But if we were to take a closer look at Tex and his numbers this year, we see a bit of a different picture.
Before yesterday’s win over the Jays, Tex was sporting a .369 wOBA. That’s a fine mark for anyone, but when your career wOBA is .386, it’s a little different. .369 would be just the sixth highest in Teixeira’s career. But in this relatively depressed offensive climate, a .369 wOBA buys you a lot more than it used to. His wRC+ was 132 during yesterday’s game. Just two seasons ago in 2009, a .369 wOBA meant a wRC+ of “only” 120. On the surface it appears that Tex isn’t having all that great of a season, but compared to the rest of the league, he’s doing alright.
Other things worth noting are that Tex has improved on his power from last year (via IsoP) and has also dropped his strikeout rate quite a bit. We would assume that increased power and lowered strikeouts would lead to a big-time season in terms of production, but there just seems to be something missing when we watch him play. Think of it like that Dali painting: up close, it looks like a bunch of cubes (and a naked woman), but when you pull back, it’s freakin’ Abe Lincoln. Oh the micro level, it just looks odd; on the macro level, though, it looks like it’s doing alright.
So what is that’s giving us agita about Tex? Look no further than his batted ball profile. Here we can see that Tex’s line drive percentage is on pace to be the lowest in his career while his fly ball percentage (steadily increasing since joining the Yankees) will also be the highest it’s ever been. His infield fly ball percentage would be lower than only one mark which occurred in his first season. On the bright side, though, his HR/FB% is right around his career average. All of this has led to a BABIP–going into yesterday–of .218. That…is not good. Punching his numbers into the simple xBABIP calculator shows us that Tex should have a BABIP of .292. If we assume a .292 BABIP for Tex, that would mean about 76 non-home run hits instead of the total of 56 (81 H – 25 HR) that Teixeira has now. Add the HRs and strikeouts back, while subtracting the sac flies, would give us a .299 average for Tex which would look MUCH, much better. There’s about a 20 hit difference in there.
First, let’s assume all those hits are singles. That gives us 20 extra total bases for Tex and puts him on base 20 more times. His line would be .299/.400/.562. If we distribute those 20 hits more evenly, considering what Tex does in terms of doubles, triples, and homers, his numbers could look even better.
Since I don’t want to let this year influence the following calculations, I’m going to use Tex’s career rates, which are more reliable than this year’s sample. In his career, Tex has 1402 hits. 316 have been doubles, 16 have been triples, 300 have been home runs and the rest (770), have been singles. As percentages, they break down like this:
Home Runs: 21%
If we distribute those to the extra 20 hits that Tex’s xBABIP give him, we would have 11 more singles (11 more TB), 5 more doubles (10 more TB), 0 triples (.2 to be exact), and 4 homers (20 extra TB). That would push his line to .299/.400/.624. If we add these “expected numbers” into the wOBA formula from The Book, Tex’s already strong .369 wOBA would be even better. In fact, it would be a ridiculous .426, which would be the second best wOBA in the American League behind Jose Bautista.
EDIT: So, while driving to work, I realized that I included home runs in Tex’s 20 extra hits, which I can’t do. We’re talking about BABIP and xBABIP, which obviously don’t include home runs. Instead, we’ll keep the 55% singles and 23% doubles. The triples will probably still remain at zero. So, we have 11 more singles and 5 (4.6) more doubles. I’ll be generous to Tex and split the remaining hits evenly, so we’ll get 13 more singles (13 more TB) and seven more doubles (14 more TB). Then our line would be .299/.400/.582. If we plug those numbers into the wOBA calculation, we would end up with a wOBA of .4176, which would still tie him for second with Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez for second to Jose Bautista and his ridiculous .478 wOBA.
The moral of the story is that Tex’s batted ball profile is all out of whack for whatever reason. Given what he’s done, though, he should be doing a lot better than he is. Even with all these calculations of what SHOULD be happening, Mark Teixeira is still having a pretty damn good season, especially given the “new” offensive climate. Still, wouldn’t it be nice for things to start trending towards where they should be?
LIKE TYA ON FACEBOOK
- TYA To Merge With It’s About The Money, Stupid
- What about Kevin Youkilis?
- Teix Now Front And Center On The “Needs To Produce” Radar
- Cashman: Heathcott A Dark Horse Candidate
- A Dog Chasing Cars
- Outfield Trade Targets
- The Problem With Brett Gardner
- A Look At Relief Prospect Branden Pinder
- The Yankees Should Be Realistic, Put Team on Short Leash in 2013
- Briefly discussing the internal options to replace Curtis Granderson
- lululemon factory outlet on Contact Us
- Cary on Will R.A. Dickey’s Knuckleball Succeed In A Domed Stadium?
- Brenna on Links: Prospects, Support for A-Rod, Mariano is Love and Who’s in Center?
- Louis Vuitton Outlet Sale Singapore on The Monthly Prospector: April Edition
- Authentic Louis Vuitton Outlet Store on The Monthly Prospector: June Edition
- Louis Vuitton Outlet San Diego on Banuelos to Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Yankees Prospectors to Undergo Grief Counseling
- related web site on The Great Subway Race
- get your lover back on Contact Us
- Dorothy Silvan on Pineda’s Torn Labrum, or Does the lemon law apply to baseball?
- tao of badass on Open Thread | Game 3 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees | Sunday, April 3, 2011
TagsA.J. Burnett Alex Rodriguez Andy Pettitte Austin Romine Baltimore Orioles Bartolo Colon Boston Red Sox Brett Gardner Brian Cashman Bullpen CC Sabathia Chien-Ming Wang Cliff Lee Curtis Granderson David Robertson Dellin Betances Derek Jeter Francisco Cervelli Freddy Garcia Game Recap Hiroki Kuroda Ivan Nova Javier Vazquez Jesus Montero Joba Chamberlain Joe Girardi Johnny Damon Jorge Posada Manny Banuelos Mariano Rivera Mark Teixeira Melky Cabrera Michael Pineda New York New York Yankees Nick Johnson Nick Swisher Phil Hughes Prospects Rafael Soriano Red Sox Robinson Cano Russell Martin Tampa Bay Rays Yankees