(Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Last month I took a look at how the members of the Yankee starting lineup were performing compared to their preseason projections, and so it seemed appropriate to finally review how the pitching staff has fared in relation to their projections.
Prior to the season I averaged the projections of the six major systems — Bill James, CAIRO, Oliver, Marcel, PECOTA and ZiPS — for each Yankee, so we’ll be using that average line when referring to “2011 projection.”
In addition to seeing who on the Yankees has over- or under-performed their projection, I also wanted to take a look at what kind of production we might reasonably expect from each player for the remainder of the season, also known as ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS). Note: Blue highlights denote exceeded projections; red highlights denote where the player fell short.
CC Sabathia
2011 Projection: 3.36 ERA/3.50 FIP; 1.19 WHIP, 7.65 K/9, 2.51 BB/9
2011 Actual: 2.64 ERA/2.48 FIP; 1.14 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 2.23 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 3.20/2.84; 1.17 WHIP, 8.13 K/9, 2.42 BB/9
Phil Hughes
2011 Projection: 3.85/3.96; 1.25 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.97 BB/9
2011 Actual: 8.44/5.87; 2.02 WHIP, 4.22 K/9, 3.38 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.32/3.81; 1.34 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
A.J. Burnett
2011 Projection: 4.50/4.28; 1.41 WHIP, 7.81 K/9, 3.67 BB/9
2011 Actual: 4.15/4.54; 1.25 WHIP, 7.54 K/9, 3.92 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.71/4.14; 1.47 WHIP, 7.95 K/9, 3.87 BB/9
Bartolo Colon
2011 Projection: 4.81/4.60; 1.38 WHIP, 5.47 K/9, 2.95 BB/9
2011 Actual: 3.09/3.70; 1.13 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 2.17 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.91/4.33; 1.36 WHIP, 6.82 K/9, 2.73 BB/9
Freddy Garcia
2011 Projection: 4.61/4.61; 1.36 WHIP, 5.77 K/9, 2.74 BB/9
2011 Actual: 3.43/3.94; 1.26 WHIP, 5.75 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.89/4.31; 1.41 WHIP, 5.67 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
Ivan Nova
2011 Projection: 4.78/4.44; 1.47 WHIP, 6.16 K/9, 4.03 BB/9
2011 Actual: 4.05/4.44; 1.46 WHIP, 5.04 K/9, 3.66 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 5.27/4.60; 1.60 WHIP, 5.27 K/9, 3.99 BB/9
It’s no secret that Sabathia’s been out-of-his-mind good, and he handily beat all of his pre-season projections. Particularly impressive is that he’s bettered his average projected FIP by a full run, due in no small part to his microscopic walk rate. ZiPS RoS appears to be underprojecting Sabathia, though it does see an even better K rate. Yes, please.
It’s also no secret that Phil Hughes’ 2011 has been an unmitigated disaster until yesterday’s step in the right direction. His average projected line heading into the season was considerably optimistic, and he of course hasn’t come close to meeting any of those numbers. ZiPS RoS still likes him to perform pretty well going forward (4.32 ERA/3.81 FIP; 1.34 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 2.88 BB/9), although it doesn’t know he was out of game action for two-and-a-half months. Still, I think we’d all take that line from Phil over the remainder of the season in a heartbeat.
Though Burnett’s been better this season primarily due to the fact that he hasn’t really imploded the way he did so frequently in 2010, he really hasn’t been all that good, either. He’s bettered his ERA and WHIP projections, but fallen short of his FIP and BB and K projected rates. ZiPS RoS is not much of a Burnett fan going forward, projecting a 4.71 ERA and unsightly 1.47 WHIP, though those figures are likely due to the system expecting a regression on his .242 BABIP.
Colon and Garcia have of course wildly exceeded expectations, though ZiPS doesn’t appear to be much of a believer in either being able to maintain anything close to the low ERAs they’re currently sporting. Given what both Colon and Garcia did this past weekend, it’s difficult to believe that they’ll continue to outperform expectations going forward.
Nova’s an interesting case, as he’s pretty significantly outperformed his average preseason projected ERA, but the projections nailed his FIP and WHIP perfectly. He’s also struck out a batter fewer an inning than the projection systems expected, all of which would indicate that Nova’s success has been considerably luck-fueled. ZiPS sees an incredibly ineffective pitcher going forward, projecting Nova with the worst ERA, FIP, WHIP, BB/9 and K/9 of any of these six pitchers.
It’s safe to say that if Nova does return to the big league rotation at some point and pitches the way ZiPS expects him to, he won’t stick around very long, but thus far Nova’s managed to mostly outperform the modest expectations many held for him, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him pitch better than ZiPS would indicate going forward.
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7 Responses to The 2011 Yankee pitching staff compared to their preseason projections and how ZiPS sees them performing going forward
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TIQ IQ
what a joke zips is. and lets cut through all the bull for a second and speak the truth. every yankee starter has pitched well this year except for hughes who has an excuse. (hes been hurt all year). people hoping and wishing and praying for cc, burnett, colon, and garcia to fold down the stretch keep holding your breath. (you’ll be dead before long)
I think there is very legit concerns about Colon. He has been more than worth the signing, and even if he doesn’t have another good start all year he was well worth his contributions to the team. But at this point with his reliance on 1 pitch, his decreasing velocity, his fragility from his size, and the fact that he has really been awful in two consecutive starts there is reason to worry he won’t hold up the rest of the way.
Right now despite how good the staff has been thus far, I don’t think we have more than 2 starters I would trust in the playoffs.
Well put. The question remains, can any Yankee starter give Boston problems? Not even CC has fared well. Until at least two Yankee pitchers can, we aren’t making the WS. I can’t remember a time when we were good enough against so many teams, but all of our holes (esp. starting pitching) are exploited easily by one team. Also, don’t the Sox seem more familiar and comfortable against Mo than ever before?
Nice post, Lar.
I forgot how bearish ZIPS was on AJ. Granted, he had a horrible season last year, but man, are those low expecations going forward.
ZIPS might be the dumbest thing I have ever seen. Anyone who has watched Ivan Nova pitched has seen a pitcher mature into a fairly reliable starter. Granted the numbers game pushed him out of the rotation, but you can certainly argue he was pitching better than at least one other starter, Burnett, and possibly two. He was 8-4 with a low 4 ERA in the American League East. How does that project to a 5.27 ERA the rest of the season. Just plain irresponsible. So he doesn’t strike a lot of hitters out means he is going to get lit up? Last time I checked, most sinker ball pitchers don’t strike a ton of hitters out but get a great deal of groundballs. Look at Nova’s ground ball rate and you can project that.
If Hughes does a 4.32/3.81 the rest of the way out, I’ll be absolutely thrilled.
I don’t mind the projections for Colon and Garcia. Burnett, I get it, he’s inconsistent. But that does not mean he is CONSISTENTLY BAD, which I feel people really are saying about him. Hughes is a bit of an unknown, but if he can average a quality start (6IP 3ER) from here on out, I’d be happy. As for Nova, I really don’t care what the ‘experts’ have to say about him. He’s a better pitcher than what people say about him and he’s proven it. He can get better with better control, which will come as he matures. He’s great insurance for Garcia or Colon falling apart.