Last month I took a look at how the members of the Yankee starting lineup were performing compared to their preseason projections, and so it seemed appropriate to finally review how the pitching staff has fared in relation to their projections.
Prior to the season I averaged the projections of the six major systems — Bill James, CAIRO, Oliver, Marcel, PECOTA and ZiPS — for each Yankee, so we’ll be using that average line when referring to “2011 projection.”
In addition to seeing who on the Yankees has over- or under-performed their projection, I also wanted to take a look at what kind of production we might reasonably expect from each player for the remainder of the season, also known as ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS). Note: Blue highlights denote exceeded projections; red highlights denote where the player fell short.
2011 Projection: 3.36 ERA/3.50 FIP; 1.19 WHIP, 7.65 K/9, 2.51 BB/9
2011 Actual: 2.64 ERA/2.48 FIP; 1.14 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 2.23 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 3.20/2.84; 1.17 WHIP, 8.13 K/9, 2.42 BB/9
2011 Projection: 3.85/3.96; 1.25 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.97 BB/9
2011 Actual: 8.44/5.87; 2.02 WHIP, 4.22 K/9, 3.38 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.32/3.81; 1.34 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
2011 Projection: 4.50/4.28; 1.41 WHIP, 7.81 K/9, 3.67 BB/9
2011 Actual: 4.15/4.54; 1.25 WHIP, 7.54 K/9, 3.92 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.71/4.14; 1.47 WHIP, 7.95 K/9, 3.87 BB/9
2011 Projection: 4.81/4.60; 1.38 WHIP, 5.47 K/9, 2.95 BB/9
2011 Actual: 3.09/3.70; 1.13 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 2.17 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.91/4.33; 1.36 WHIP, 6.82 K/9, 2.73 BB/9
2011 Projection: 4.61/4.61; 1.36 WHIP, 5.77 K/9, 2.74 BB/9
2011 Actual: 3.43/3.94; 1.26 WHIP, 5.75 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 4.89/4.31; 1.41 WHIP, 5.67 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
2011 Projection: 4.78/4.44; 1.47 WHIP, 6.16 K/9, 4.03 BB/9
2011 Actual: 4.05/4.44; 1.46 WHIP, 5.04 K/9, 3.66 BB/9
ZiPS RoS: 5.27/4.60; 1.60 WHIP, 5.27 K/9, 3.99 BB/9
It’s no secret that Sabathia’s been out-of-his-mind good, and he handily beat all of his pre-season projections. Particularly impressive is that he’s bettered his average projected FIP by a full run, due in no small part to his microscopic walk rate. ZiPS RoS appears to be underprojecting Sabathia, though it does see an even better K rate. Yes, please.
It’s also no secret that Phil Hughes’ 2011 has been an unmitigated disaster until yesterday’s step in the right direction. His average projected line heading into the season was considerably optimistic, and he of course hasn’t come close to meeting any of those numbers. ZiPS RoS still likes him to perform pretty well going forward (4.32 ERA/3.81 FIP; 1.34 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 2.88 BB/9), although it doesn’t know he was out of game action for two-and-a-half months. Still, I think we’d all take that line from Phil over the remainder of the season in a heartbeat.
Though Burnett’s been better this season primarily due to the fact that he hasn’t really imploded the way he did so frequently in 2010, he really hasn’t been all that good, either. He’s bettered his ERA and WHIP projections, but fallen short of his FIP and BB and K projected rates. ZiPS RoS is not much of a Burnett fan going forward, projecting a 4.71 ERA and unsightly 1.47 WHIP, though those figures are likely due to the system expecting a regression on his .242 BABIP.
Colon and Garcia have of course wildly exceeded expectations, though ZiPS doesn’t appear to be much of a believer in either being able to maintain anything close to the low ERAs they’re currently sporting. Given what both Colon and Garcia did this past weekend, it’s difficult to believe that they’ll continue to outperform expectations going forward.
Nova’s an interesting case, as he’s pretty significantly outperformed his average preseason projected ERA, but the projections nailed his FIP and WHIP perfectly. He’s also struck out a batter fewer an inning than the projection systems expected, all of which would indicate that Nova’s success has been considerably luck-fueled. ZiPS sees an incredibly ineffective pitcher going forward, projecting Nova with the worst ERA, FIP, WHIP, BB/9 and K/9 of any of these six pitchers.
It’s safe to say that if Nova does return to the big league rotation at some point and pitches the way ZiPS expects him to, he won’t stick around very long, but thus far Nova’s managed to mostly outperform the modest expectations many held for him, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him pitch better than ZiPS would indicate going forward.
LIKE TYA ON FACEBOOK
- TYA To Merge With It’s About The Money, Stupid
- What about Kevin Youkilis?
- Teix Now Front And Center On The “Needs To Produce” Radar
- Cashman: Heathcott A Dark Horse Candidate
- A Dog Chasing Cars
- Outfield Trade Targets
- The Problem With Brett Gardner
- A Look At Relief Prospect Branden Pinder
- The Yankees Should Be Realistic, Put Team on Short Leash in 2013
- Briefly discussing the internal options to replace Curtis Granderson
- http://2804lasela.wordpress.com/ on TYA Predictions: Bold predictions for 2012
- the tao of badass pdf on What about Austin Romine?
- Joey Parkhill on Dante Bichette Jr’s Swing
- lululemon factory outlet on Contact Us
- Cary on Will R.A. Dickey’s Knuckleball Succeed In A Domed Stadium?
- Brenna on Links: Prospects, Support for A-Rod, Mariano is Love and Who’s in Center?
- Louis Vuitton Outlet Sale Singapore on The Monthly Prospector: April Edition
- Authentic Louis Vuitton Outlet Store on The Monthly Prospector: June Edition
- Louis Vuitton Outlet San Diego on Banuelos to Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Yankees Prospectors to Undergo Grief Counseling
- related web site on The Great Subway Race
TagsA.J. Burnett Alex Rodriguez Andy Pettitte Austin Romine Baltimore Orioles Bartolo Colon Boston Red Sox Brett Gardner Brian Cashman Bullpen CC Sabathia Chien-Ming Wang Cliff Lee Curtis Granderson David Robertson Dellin Betances Derek Jeter Francisco Cervelli Freddy Garcia Game Recap Hiroki Kuroda Ivan Nova Javier Vazquez Jesus Montero Joba Chamberlain Joe Girardi Johnny Damon Jorge Posada Manny Banuelos Mariano Rivera Mark Teixeira Melky Cabrera Michael Pineda New York New York Yankees Nick Johnson Nick Swisher Phil Hughes Prospects Rafael Soriano Red Sox Robinson Cano Russell Martin Tampa Bay Rays Yankees