Hey Ubaldo, any interest in a different set of pinstripes?
How the mighty have fallen. Just a year ago Ubaldo Jimenez was as untouchable a player as there was in all of baseball. He posted back-to-back months with an ERA well below 1.00 in April and May, and many analysts were suggesting that he was the game’s best pitcher. He floundered in the second half, but still finished with a 2.88 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, good for 6.3 fWAR. Currently only 27 years old, Ubaldo had all the makings of a player any team would build a rotation around for the long term. Now, rumors are flying that the Yankees and Rockies may be close to making a deal.
Bluntly put, provided the price isn’t too steep, the Yankees have to consider any trade that yields Jimenez. Rumors that he’s having a bad season this year are over blown. He’s pitching to a 4.08 ERA and a 3.42 FIP. He’s been worth 2.4 fWAR so far on the year, which makes him more valuable than every Yankee pitcher not named CC Sabathia. The only red flag on Jimenez is that his fastball velocity is down this season. According to Fangraphs his fastball averaged 96.1 mph in 2009 and 2010, but is down around 93.4 mph this season. That’s a considerable drop off but not so much to make the pitch inneffective. So long as the drop in velocity isn’t due to an undiagnosed injury, it shouldn’t be cause for too much alarm.
It is therefore a no-brainer that the Yankees should trade for Jimenez if the price is logical. (The rumored price of Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos and Ivan Nova is categorically not logical.) But, is Jimenez actually the young-stud pitcher the Yankees should be looking at? Is it a slam dunk move to go after him, and not Francisco Liriano?
Setting aside the question of whether or not the Twins are ready to part ways with Liriano, if the Yankees could make a deal for any pitcher who is realistically available, should they target Francisco or Jimenez?
Liriano is similar to Jimenez in many ways. He’s just a few months older than Ubaldo, and won’t turn 28 until the end of October. He was almost as valuable last season, accumulating 6.0 fWAR in 2010 (in the American League to boot, which impresses me more than anything accomplished in AAAA). He actually had better strike out and control numbers than Jimenez. Liriano struck out 9.44 batters and walked 2.72 batters per nine innings last season, versus 8.69 and 3.74 for Jimenez. In many ways Liriano’s 2010 was every bit as impressive as Jimenez’s, even if it didn’t get as much hype.
Unfortunately for Liriano, he has more red flags than Jimenez. The first is his innings. Francisco has never pitched 200 innings in a season. Last year he posted a career high of 191.2, but Ubaldo has posted at least 198.2 innings for three consecutive seasons now and has pitched 20 more innings already this season. The other red mark against Liriano is that he’s struggling this season. He’s posted an ERA of 4.76 and a FIP of 4.30. His fWAR is a measely 0.8 so far this year. Most of the damage came in April, when Liriano was miserable, posting 1.90 WHIP and a 6.05 FIP, but he’s only been dominant in June since then, when he posted a WHIP 1.18 and a FIP of 2.12. His FIP has been above 4.50 every other month this season and is 4.55 in July, against a 3.93 ERA. That’s better, but not so strong that the Yankees should part ways with a variety of prospects.
Heading into this analysis I thought that Liriano and Jimenez would be close enough in value to make the Twins starter worth a closer look. This is not the case. Jimenez is a better pitcher than Liriano. In fact, it’s not even clear the Yankees should trade for Liriano if he were available. Ivan Nova has been worth the exact same fWAR of 0.8 on the season so far. Unless the Yankee scouts felt strongly that Liriano would have a strong second half the team could get the same kind of production boost from bringing back Nova. Jimenez, on the other hand, would immediately slot into the number two spot in the rotation, and ease the pressure off Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. The question is just the price. If I’m Brian Cashman the piece I want to keep the most is Ivan Nova. He may not have the ceiling of the other prospects, but he’s big-league ready. If both Colon and Garcia sputter out then the team will need more than just Ubaldo Jimenez to bolster its rotation.
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49 Responses to Who would you rather have, Ubaldo or Liriano?
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Jimenez is by far and away the better pitcher (as you state in the piece), Liriano has shown flashes of brilliance at times. But he has yet to even pitch 200 innings in a season, has injury concerns, and has flashed just as many signs of mediocrity. I like Liriano for his upside, but his upside isn’t the same as Ubaldo.
Probably doesn’t matter though if Heyman’s latest reports are correct though. I don’t see Cashman parting with Montero and Banuelos, he still has a goal to reach developing an in house ace.
I was motivated to write this piece because my firt instinct upon hearing that the Yankees were scouting Jimenez was to ask why not Liriano. In my mind they were similar pitchers, except one was a lefty who has played in the AL. I was surprised to see just how much better Ubaldo actually is than Liriano. There is really no choice between the two.
I don’t know if there have been any updates to the trade rumors, but if I were Cashman and the trade request came down to just Montero and one of the Killer B’s, I’d jump all over that, especially if it means keeping a big league ready player like Nova.
Heyman reported on twitter (I know take it with a grain of salt) that the Rockies don’t want Montero to be the main piece in the deal. They want him in the package, but they want Banuelos to be the main prospect. I don’t know if this means they want Betances too or not, he didn’t say.
As much as I love Banuelos’ upside, if we can get this done for say Banuelos, Montero, Nova, and Marshall/Noesi/Warren/Phelps it has to be seriously considered.
It seems as if many people are undervaluing Ubaldo, trying to act as if he is a pitcher with half a good season in his career and nothing more. I’ve also seen a lot of labeling of him as nothing more than a “NL pitch”. Anyone who has that kind of stuff, and is only 27, shouldn’t be written off that easy.
Also good piece! I forgot to add that in my original comment.
Thanks T.O., I appreciate it.
After careful reflection I am of a similar opinion, except I’d want to keep Nova, not Banuelos.
Here is my reasoning: Odds are that both of the Killer B’s will develop into a single player as productive as Jimenez. That means that the trade would really become getting a player as good as Jimenez now, in exchange for that future production from both the Killer B’s, and Montero’s future production. In other words, trading more in future potential for a known quantity, which is the definition of the time value of money and a trade worth making, despite the loss of upside.
For me the sticking point would be Nova, only because the Yankees may need another pitcher for the stretch. If Colon and Garcia continue to head in the wrong direction, Nova becomes of critical value to the Yankees.
So, if I’m reading you right you would be willing to give Montero, Banuelos, and Betances so long as you keep Nova? That’s very interesting thinking. At that point you probably get to keep what would have been a 4th piece to yourself, and probably still get back Wigginton or Stewart in the deal. 3 top 50 prospects is a steep price to pay, but the liklihood that Betances or Banuelos becomes Jimenez is slim to none.
Heyman is reporting that “rivals” believe the Reds have the pieces to acquire Jimenez for a package of Volquez, Alonso, and Wood.
That is exactly right. With Jimenez and Nova in the rotation the Yankees are probably in a position to compete for this year’s and next year’s WS. Swap Nova out, however, and the team may find itself short a starter. I am therefore willing to trade the Killer B’s and Montero for Ubaldo right now.
I forgot to mention in my previous reply that I also don’t think this trade happens. Colorado is not rebuilding. If the Reds have a better offer, as you say some are reporting, then I struggle to see why they trade from their Big League club purely for prospects.
The only reason I see them doing it now is because he carries more value now, then say if they trade him in 2013, when he has one season left on his contract.
They certainly would want at least one major league ready arm to make it work. While they aren’t re-building, I also don’t think they have a team that is going to compete this season, despite however many late runs they’ve made in the past. If they value Montero as Helton’s replacement, and Banuelos and Betances strike them as front end starters of the future, I could see it getting done. I’ve heard Buster Olney say 10-25% chance they trade him, that sounds about right. But probably closer to 10.
As an update, Buster Olney is reporting that the Yankees and Rockies have yet to exchange names on a potential deal. Heyman is either in over his head and making stories up, or Buster doesn’t have as good a sources at Jon. I consider Buster a more reliable reporter.
I have been yes/no/yes/no about Ubaldo Jimenez ever since the talk about him has heated up and I have made my decision:
YES.
Bottom line is (I think) Jimenez will win a World Series with the Yanks before Colorado wins a World Series with who they trade him to the Yanks for, if Colorado even wins one with these kids, that is. The Yanks could win a World Series with Jimenez as early as this season.
Hey Duh!, can you e-mail me at Yankeeist at Gmail dot com? Was hoping to chat with you outside of the comment section. Thanks
Larry I just sent you an email a minute or so ago.
I’d take Jimenez over Liriano in a heart beat. Even though Liriano is a lefty I don’t think there is any comparison between the two. Besides take a look at Jimenez’s numbers away from Coors Field, they are excellent. Like I’ve said in the past I would definitely trade Montero I think either Romine or Sanchez further down the road both have a much better chance of becoming the full time catcher for the Yankees than Montero. As for giving up one of the Killer “B” I’d do that to. Again the chances of both those guys (Banuelos and Betances) making the big league club as starters in the future are slim. One probably yes but not both. Then it’s just a matter of figuring out the final pieces or 2 pieces that will enable the Yankees to finalize a trade with the Rockies. The Yankees certainly have other options in their farm system to replace Nova in a year or so. Plus how many times have I read on this and other blogs that Nova is at best a probably a back end of the rotation pitcher at best. That type of evaluation should not stop this trade. If Hughes has righted his ship and the Yankees should have a very good idea if he has with the next start or two a future stating rotation of CC, Jimenez and Hughes as the top 3 brings a smile to my face. That’s just my opinion.
I agree 100%, except with the willingness to trade Nova. You are absolutely correct in asserting that Nova is just a back of the rotation arm, however those are valuable and the Yankees may find themselves in need of a back of the rotation arm very soon if Hughes/Colon/Garcia falters.
Do you pass up this opportunity on the basis of an “if” one of those guys falters. In my opinion I’d say no. Besides short team and I realize the Yankees haven’t shown any inclination to start Noesi but wouldn’t he be an answer to the “if” question? He seems to possess comparable stuff to Nova.
I see your point.
My answer would hinge on how the Yankees feel about Noesi or another option in that fifth starter’s role. If Nova is truly that expendable, then part with him, but if he’s the Yankees only true option as the number six starter then I may pass the trade up.
Well the thing is if we get Jimenez instead of Nova, we’re using Jimenez as the replacement for whoever struggles, but the difference is he slides in at the #2 spot, not a #4 spot like Nova would. If 2 starters falter, well then having just Nova wouldn’t be helpful, with Jimenez we could at least have someone eat innings to get to the post-season then go with a 4-man rotation.
Is Liriano even available given Scott Baker’s placement on the D/L and the Twins resurgence?
Possibly not. In earlier drafts of this post I made a clearer mention of that fact before deleting them to make the post stronger from a flow stand point.
On this site at least Liriano has been considered a possible trade target for the Yankees for a while. In all likelihood none of this materializes, but it’s fun to speculate.
I’d try to barter my way to getting either Banuelos or Betances out of the question. Perhaps send them Jorge Vazquez, Adam Warren, and cash in his place. I’d say yes in a heart beat, but if they’re asking for both of the Bs… that’s just a bit too steep. I assume the Rockies will be willing to concede a bit, it’s just how trading works, you start off asking for the cheapest/most expensive package possible depending on which side of it you’re on. No one ever starts out with a reasonable offer.
The only thing I would say is that Jorge Vazquez has no real trade value. He isn’t a prospect, and his only impressive numbers are his power. But his age, strikeout rate, and lack of walks are going expose him in the show. He compares somewhat to a guy like Shelley Duncan. Sort of a AAAA/organizational type player.
With Mauer future a bit on the cloudy side re his long term catching future , I doubt Minny really wants Montero. Mauer might out last Montero at catcher.
Minny would demand Banuelos in return along with nova and a leader pitching prospect … Adam Warren.
Still kinda steep.
I’ve always figured that a deal for Liriano would start with Romine, for exactly the reasons you mentioned regarding Montero and Mauer. I could see them asking for Banuelos, but honestly I don’t think they would have a leg to stand on in that request. Especially since at this point Banuelos probably has very similar upside, with less injury risk.
A Banuelos-Romine centered package in which Nova gets included as the ML ready pitcher makes sense. I thought Minny already had a decent catching prospect in their farm though.
There is no way I would do that. Liriano may be worth Romine-Nova on talent alone, but I wouldn’t include Banuelos, Betances, or Montero in any deal involving him. His health is a major question mark, and his performance this year has been hit and miss. He has remarkable talent, but his risk isn’t worth our upper end talent.
I wouldn’t come near that one. Liriano is a time bomb. I even have some semi inside info on him from somebody that should know. He told me that there is no way on earth that the Twins will commit to him going forward via a new contract, that they consider him a lazy and self centered guy, and that they would love to sell on him. Also, look at his injury history.
Ubaldo by contrast is the real deal. A true #1/#2, capable of 6 or 7 WAR, and with some upside, and with an extremely friendly contract. The problem would be the price, something like Banuelos, Montero, Nova, and more. A very tough call.
There is some evidence, if not so solid evidence, to support such claims. A lot of people believe the reason his recovery from Tommy John took so long was because he didn’t rehab properly. I have also heard that they have no intention of going longterm on him as well. You would hope a veteran clubhouse, with guys like CC in the rotation, would help straighten him out. But I agree you have to stay away from Liriano if the price is high. That said I would still consider a deal for Liriano, at the right price. If the pieces given up would be worth 1-3 seasons of success. Since you can’t really count on him longterm.
Well if you can believe Cashman, the Yankees will be making no moves at the deadline, and we can forget about Jimenez.
Brian told Jack Curry the Yankees won’t do anything “stupid”. Adding that “I think we definitely have enough to get in the playoffs,”.
Curry also said Cashman mentioned Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Austin Romine and Jesus Montero as prospects he has “no inclination to move,”.
Jon Heyman is also reporting that the Yankees refuse to move Ivan Nova as well. So if anything there will only be minor moves, for something along the lines of a lefty specialist, I’ve heard Randy Choate thrown around once or twice.
You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs, and we won’t pull anyone worth note from the trade market without trading at least one of Nova, Banuelos, Betances, Romine or Montero. While I understand not wanting to fall into the traps of the past, I also don’t agree with standing pat simply because you can “make the playoffs”. Last I checked we were the New York Yankees, not the Pirates, and making the playoffs is never really the end goal. Curry did note that the Yankees have “at least some interest in Ubaldo Jimenez”, but unless Cashman is really playing the game hard we don’t have much of an interest.
This will come as good news to those who consider Banuelos and Betances untouchable, but not so much to those of us who don’t think we have a chance at the World Series without a starting pitching upgrade.
I get not wanting to throw away the farm for someone on the trade Market, but I don’t understand saying you won’t trade a single top prospect for Ubaldo Jimenez, unless you really think the Rockies are bluffing.
I dont think the Rockies are “bluffing” per se. It seems that if someone wants to overpay for Ubaldo they would trade him. It doesnt sound like a “fair trade” will get it done. Cashman may have decided hes not overpaying. My question is would guys substitue Nunez for manban or Delin in a trade? Say, Montero, Nunez, Nova to the Rockies and you keep both B’s. I personally would trade a B before Nunez. His athletisim, and bat in the middle infield is a rare thing these days. I know Yankee fans love prospects except when they actually play. Nunez strugling to learn 3b and everyone wants to go out and get Wingington. I think, like in the Lee trade, it could be Nunez that continues to be sticking point. Nunez is much closer to being an everyday shortstop than either Bentences or Beunelos are to being starting pitchers in the major leagues, let alone aces.
Cashman is saying he won’t Banuelos, Betances, or Nova for anyone, not just Ubaldo.
I really doubt the team that just locked up Tulow longterm is going to want any part of Nunez. Also in no way does Nunez equal one of Betances or Banuelos, let alone both of them.
Nunez is not going to be a sticking point for a team with a SS locked up through 2020.
I didnt mean to imply that Nunez was worth both B’s. I meant instead of including one of them in the trade you include Nunez in his place. Also, I’m not a moron and realize that Tulo is playing ss for the Rockies. There is no reason why Nunez couldnt be moved to second base. I disagree that Nunez doesnt equal one of the B’s, neither is particuarlly impressive in AA ball right now, both having serious control issues. Its along way from struggling in AA ball to a major league impact pitcher. IF the Yankees were to keep all their prospects I think the odds are that Nunez makes a bigger impact on the Yankees than either Manban or Bentences.
Nunez loses value compared to a starting pitcher moving from SS to 2nd base.
They both have control problems, but both are striking out over 9 per 9, and they and they both have 2-3 plus pitches a piece. Nunez is a short stop who has shown major fielding flaws, and he is a very free swinger with limited pop.
I don’t think you will find one person on this site, or anywhere else for that matter that would agree that Nunez equals Betances or Banuelos in value.
Nunez’s ceiling is nothing more than a league average short stop.
If the Yankees feel that Nunez upside is a league average ss, why wouldnt they have thrown him into the deal for Lee? IF reports are to be beleived, that is what prevented the Yankees from getting him and possibly winning the world series. Is it possible that the people on this website undervalue Nunez’s ceiling? Or do the Yankees overvalue it? From what I’ve seen of him this year, he looks to me like he could be a better than average ss. That is, if he puts in the work to become a more consistent fielder.
Lee was being treated as a rental since he had half a year remaining on his contract. Plus I think they got a little arrogant that he would just automatically take the most money and sign in the offseason.
It’s obviously possible that we are underrating him, and it’s obviously possible he becomes better than league average. But if I had to bet my paycheck on one of Betances or Banuelos vs Nunez being the above average prospect, I’ll go with one of the pitchers.
both are hugh mistakes…if it was for low talent o.k….but for any chips, no way..
How would Ubaldo be a mistake? If you are truly underrating him to the point of only being worth low talent, you need to go back and check the numbers, and then watch him pitch.
Why in the world would Colorado trade his guy? He is a top tier talent with a nothing contract. It makes no sense to me … Unless they are concerned about his velocity drop which is significant A team suddenly looking to trade their young cost controlled ace who happens to be throwing 3mph less on average? Raises red flags to me
His velocity has been coming back, and he threw 99 in the last inning of his last start. They aren’t shopping him, they are simply willing to listen in order to be blown away.
Blown away = give up all of your top prospects
Which is why it doesn’t raise red flags.
It has to raise red flags. It is at least questionable that a team trades it’s ace for a slew of prospects. Maybe their system is barren or maybe they love certain NYY prospects. Or, maybe the ace is starting to trend downward. I don’t know and you don’t know. But you have to think about that and do your due diligence as best as possible with that in mind if you are the Yankees
is it possiable to trade for both jimenez and liriano.
Nope.
why wouldn’t you trade the propects to the rockies and trade like soriano or joba to the twins with some combination of players like romine and colon and garcia and future pick and some cash
lol 2 guys on the DL, one of which isnt comming back until next year and the other is making 13mil a year, and 2 guys signed to minor league contracts. I’m sure Mini would be all over that. Maybe the Yankees could sweeten the pot and include cervelli and meat tray.
Imagine this for one second. Two years down the road….
Delin Betances from Brooklyn NY becomes the ace for the Rockies with a 3.5 era and overpowering K’s to BB. He makes all star team, of course pitching in the weak national league along side fellow former Yankee farmhand all stars (Ian Kennedy and Jeff Karstens). Jesus Montero becomes a 35 Hr 120 RBI guy batting fourth in front of Troy tulowitzki. ivan Nova with his 4.00 era in the American league is the Rockies number two starter winning 16 games per year. The Rockies are contending each season.
Now to the yankees, Ubaldo jimenez wins 16 games in the american league with a 4.15 era and diminished fastball. He is inconsistent and really a number two pitcher. Factor in Arod is struggling to hit 30+ HR’s and 100Rbi’s and the Yankee lineup lacks legit power as Texiera is inconsistent. The younger Red Sox dominate the division.
Now you just traded away good young players for a pitcher with an attitude and diminished fastball. Yankee fans who wanted this trade will be blaming Cashman and calling for him to be fired.
Think about what you are giving up. If you are willing to back up the truck for a national league pitcher with an attitude and herky jerky motion as well as a diminished fastball struggling to hit 91 numerous games this year (FACT), than lets go for it. ……….
This is like saying at the time of the Granderson trade:
Grandy might get in an auto accident.
IPK could turn into Greg Maddux.
Austin Jackson will be a lifetime .325 hitter.
In the Granderson trade, we made a judgment that he was a guy that fit the Yankees. Naturally, the cost was high for somebody that was worth a lot.
This is the same thing. We need another high quality starter, and Ubaldo is definitely one. The cost will be high. It may be too high, but Cashman certainly signaled his willingness to do something like this by offering Montero and more for a Lee rental, even though that could have turned very bad through Lee’s free agency.
Funny thing on the way to the park. I looked up Nova stats in the American League and compared them to Ubaldo Jimenez stats, which sound completely ridiculous other than the fact that Nova has a better ERA pitching in the tougher AL east. Interesting!
I also looked up Ubaldo stats this year and last year which are completely inconsistent. He appears to dominate weaker teams in the national league and get hit harder against tougher teams. Lets back up the truck and give up everyone for him right now……
Last point, your man, Ubaldo Jimenez decides to test out free agency 2013 and Yanks decide based on his performance (Javier vazquez like) last few years they are not going after him and let him sign with another team.
Im not trading more than one of the big three prospects in montero/banuelos/betances for any player not named King Felix or Clayton Kershaw…….