CC striking Big Papi out for the third time on August 7, 2010
The Yankees and their arch-rivals to the north, the Boston Red Sox, square off tonight in the first of three in Boston’s first trip to Yankee Stadium of the season. While this probably has more to do with the inherent randomness of the schedule than anything else, this is actually the first time the Red Sox come into a series at Yankee Stadium with a losing record since 1997. Last season they were 19-19 upon their first arrival at the Stadium in May, and split the two-game series to depart with a .500 record. The last time the Red Sox left the Bronx with a losing record was in 2005, after the Yankees took two of three at home to open the season.
When these two teams last met a little over a month ago, the Sox had stumbled to a rather shocking 0-6 start, fueled by a total lack of offense and some brutal pitching performances. They’ve mostly rebounded since, going 17-14, but haven’t been able to get themselves over .500 quite yet, though that will surely happen soon enough.
Thus far Boston’s been held back by several issues. For one, they’ve only gotten great starting performances out of two-fifths of their rotation, as Jon Lester has been his usual stellar self (though his BB/9 and HR/9 are considerably elevated) and Josh Beckett has bounced back from last season’s sub-par performance in a major way, pitching arguably better than he ever has as a Red Sock. Unfortunately for Boston, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz and John Lackey, have, for the most part, been pretty bad.
Things haven’t been all that much better in the bullpen. Though Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon are once again proving to be one of the best set-up man/closer combinations around, Hideki Okajima is walking the world (5.40 BB/9), Bobby Jenks is getting his strikeouts (10.38 K/9) but incredibly nearly walking as many hitters (9.35 BB/9) and Dan Wheeler‘s been a home run-yielding machine (3.48 HR/9).
And while the offense — a Red Sox hallmark for the last decade — has improved over the last several weeks (.345 team wOBA last two weeks; .328 wOBA on the season, 4th-best in the AL) and they’re getting on base at the third-best clip in the league, the power hasn’t quite been where you’d expect it to be (.400 SLG, tied for 7th in the AL). Although that aspect of the team’s game has also been gaining steam of late, as the Sox actually have the second-highest SLG in the AL over the last 14 days, behind the red-hot Rays.
And after all is said and done, they are still the Red Sox, and slow start and poorer-statistics-than-you’d-expect aside, they not only get to throw their two best pitchers this weekend,but you know these two teams will be constantly trading leads and beating the crap out of each other all weekend long like they always do.
In tonight’s contest, Bartolo Colon (3.81 ERA/4.18 FIP/2.91 xFIP) faces Clay Buchholz (4.19 ERA/5.25 FIP/4.81 xFIP). Colon finally had a bad outing in his last go-round against Texas last weekend, but he’s still been pretty great and currently boasts the best K/9 and BB/9 of the rotation. Given his abnormally high HR/9, xFIP also sses him as the Yankee starter with the lowest ERA going forward (2.91 xFIP). The Yankees beat Buchholz up when they faced him last month at Fenway, and as Clay has historically struggled against the Bombers (.336/.413/.527 over 152 career PAs), this probably represents New York’s best opportunity to do some offensive damage this weekend.
The second game features one of the strangest things I’ve seen in a while — a non-playoff night game on a Saturday at Yankee Stadium. I literally cannot remember the last time the Yankees played at night at home on a Saturday. In honor of this random event, CC Sabathia (2.89 ERA/2.85 FIP/3.45 xFIP) will take on Josh Beckett (1.99 ERA/2.97 FIP/3.27 xFIP), the latter of whom utterly dominated the Yankees last month in Boston over eight shutout innings. Sabathia pitched quite a bit worse than Beckett did that evening; but given that CC hasn’t been ultra-sharp in his last two outings, I’d expect the big man to come up big at home this time out. It also seems pretty unlikely that Beckett will be that good again, though he’s really only had one “bad” start thus far this season, so it’s certainly possible that Beckett quiets the Yankee bats again.
And in the ESPN Sunday Night Marathon Heartbreaker we get the most lopsided pitching match-up of the weekend, as Freddy Garcia (2.40 ERA/4.21 FIP/3.70 xFIP) faces Jon Lester (2.96 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.31 xFIP). Though Freddy’s mostly defied expectations, it’s pretty difficult to envision him successfully navigating a deep lineup like Boston’s with his bucket of offspeed slop. Believers can point to the fact that Garcia did just that against a top AL offense in the Rangers, and perhaps the Red Sox not really having faced Garcia save for one inning of relief will end up being slightly advantageous for Freddy, but I don’t really see it. But then again, it doesn’t really matter who the Yankees throw out there, given that they get to face Lester, who, quite simply, owns the Bronx Bombers.
Here’s something new I’m trying out, a look at which hitters are hot and who’s not based on their triple-slash stats over the last seven days:
Hot
Yankees
Curtis Granderson – .364/.500/.909
Derek Jeter – .360/.385/.640
Brett Gardner – .381/.409/.476
Red Sox
Adrian Gonzalez – .375/.375/.906
David Ortiz – .360/.385/.640
J.D. Drew – .286/.444/.476
Jacoby Ellsbury – .375/.394/.438
Cold
Yankees
Jorge Posada – .167/.375/.167
Nick Swisher – .190/.292/.333
Russell Martin -.067/.300/.067
Red Sox
Jed Lowrie – .227/.292/.364
Kevin Youkilis – .231/.333/.269
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .188/.235/.250
Bear in mind, even though Youk appears on this fairly arbitrary “cold” list, he and Dustin Pedroia are still going to get on base a combined 800,000 times this weekend.
Here are the two teams’ offense and pitching numbers, with AL ranks in parentheses:
Not a very pretty picture for the Yankees over the last 14 days, but you knew that already.
In any event, the Yankees’ best chance to take this series will be by winning the first two games, as facing Lester Sunday night is almost as close to a guaranteed loss as facing King Felix. The offense, as we are all painfully aware, has been pretty streaky of late, but some of these slumping bats — particularly Alex Rodriguez and Swisher — are going to have to come around soon enough, and the Yankees really should be able to take two of three this weekend.
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29 Responses to Game Thread and Series Preview | Yankees vs. Red Sox II: Maybe let’s not let Dustin Pedroia pick up nine hits this time
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TIQ IQ
well starting out early, the book on the yanks for my money..if your the opposing pitcher don’t throw a strike on a two ball no strike count and a three one count..they will swing no matter where you throw it.. the guy has not had a 1..2..3.. first inning all year..wait until right now..maybe cone should have told them he has rough first innings..joe must not..secong inning arod 3 and 1 must swing..of coarse k..then swisher well he is tearing it up ..so 2 0 must swing.. these guys are a bad tooth ache.. of coarse jeter in the first..tex is a lock with posada to swing 2 0.. they are great hitters counts….for guys with control..not because it is.. another frustrating game coming up
Fire Kevin Long!
nah ..he is a great hitting coach..i know you are just busting them.. you can lead a herd of horses to drink..
Home run! Waa-hooooo!
Kevin can keep his job.
and posada did swing two oh
At least he got a hit. Swinging in hitter’s counts isn’t a bad idea, if they get hits. It just sucks when they hit weak pop-ups.
even a broken clock is right twice a day
and he weakly grounds out on a three one..with a guy on second
when a guy is hot ..yes go after it.. but not just swing ,and pick a good one
There you go…Cano took a 2-0 pitch.
And a 3-0 pitch.
And then he grounded out.
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there goes joe..why send the guy out if you don’t stick with him..why milk it .joba has been given his day off..
He obviously felt Colon had overmatched Salty all game long, and didn’t want to have Joba face the lefty since his slider is his best pitch.
I wouldn’t have sent Colon out but he likely was only going after Salty whether he got him out or not.
i would have with only 100 pitches
Joba should’ve pitched Wednesday after only 9 pitches Mon.-Tue.
He pitched like shit tonight because he was rested for too long: only 9 pitches in four days (off-day Mon., pitched Tue., rested Wed.-Thu.)
This I can’t agree with at all, you can’t blame his performance on having too much rest. That’s just looking for a fault in anyone but the one who actually pitched poorly.
Cano’s footwork cost them that run.
well looks like another sloppy day for them..keep swinging away guys 2 / 0. 3 / 1..alex swinging first pitch..they wear guys out taking them in long counts ..why change..beyond me
down three runs martin leading off 2 oh.. ball three no swinging for a game tying three run homer with nobody on..now Ks..
Girardi is a fucking idiot for bringing Colon out to begin the seventh. 100 pitches, shithead!!!
This Yankees team is nauseating. Russell Martin is the only reason this game isn’t 5-0 Red Sox as I see Joba Chamberlain most likely cost the Yankees this game because this team lacks the mental fortitude to come back like they have in recent times. They have no comeback in them. And I see alot of fading stars on this team: Posada, Jeter, Rodriguez, Swisher. Teixiera at times even looks like what I’d imagine him to be in 2015-16.
This team really needs to ask themselves if they have what it takes to win it all this year, because quite frankly, I don’t see it. I hope I am proven otherwise.
You may very well be looking at the stretch of games which eliminate the Yankees from making the 2011 postseason because their starters have posted an ERA under 4 the last 20 or so games and they are barely over .500. This is the ninth well-started game the Yankees’ offense has pissed away including the second one by Colon (three by Burnett, two by Sabathia, one by Nova, and one by Garcia.)
Kevin Long should be fired after tonight and his firing should be the first warning to Girardi and Cashman: this could be one or both of you in September.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: if the 2011 Yankees don’t make the postseason, Girardi and Cashman should be fired within 24 hours of the final out of the elimination game.
the starters have been great..defense and terrible at bats for so long.. painful watching these guys..
this is just stupid baseball ,, nothing but ignorant..guy on third no out tex up.. see previous post..3 and 1 going to hit a three run homer with one on…pops up..now the other mental midget..three one he too is going to hit a 3 run HR with one on..what is in there heads and girardi’s
swisher since last year in the playoff till now is a total dog..good thing this is his last year in NY.
Mark Teixiera weakly pops out to end the game. Pathetic showing by the Stinkees which is what they are unless they win the next two games.
I would love for the Yankees to rebuild the starting nine with Granderson, Gardner, and Martin.
Cano is still a lazy shit after all these years. Teixiera looks like Jason Giambi After 2002 The Sequal. A-Rod is a fading star. Jeter and Posada are done. Swisher is not getting his 2012 club option picked up or coming back unless he takes a discount.
not even for free..swish can go to the NL. AND BIG A BIG STAR
You guys are going waaaaaay overboard… I wonder why people always accuse the Yankees fans of being bridge jumpers?
cano looks like he is hurting..
“Kevin Long should be fired after tonight and his firing should be the first warning to Girardi and Cashman: this could be one or both of you in September.”
You can’t be serious? Fire one of the best hitting coaches in baseball? The same coach who has turned around Swisher and Granderson in the middle of seasons? This is a classic over-reaction.