Stats to watch for 2012: Robinson Cano
In yesterday’s post, I briefly touched on improvements or adjustments that Mark Teixeira or Phil Hughes could make going in to 2012. Of course I noted that since both of those players are veterans, it’s unlikely that anything significant about their games changes. The same could be said about the player who’s the focus of this article–nd that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Robinson Cano is a damn fine hitter and there is no disputing that. His contact skills are fantastic and his power is grand, and even more enviable when we consider his position. To find a flaw in his game would be nitpicking to the umpteenth degree. But, there is one small flaw in Cano’s offensive game. He’s still almost allergic to walks. While he’s good at making contact, which includes foul balls, it can be a bit maddening when Robinson chases a high fastball on a full count.
I have this delusion in my head that as he ages, Robinson Cano will learn plate discipline by osmosis from standing near Tex, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez. But, seriously, I think that Cano is a smart player who’s willing to make adjustments to his game. He did it to add power and I think he could possibly do it to add discipline as he ages. Perhaps he’ll notice that as his bat slows down, he shouldn’t chase some of those pitches. This is a) a pie in the sky theory and b) years away. Still, let’s keep an eye on Robbie’s unintentional walk rate. It’s fluctuated a bit; it was at 5.1 in 2007; 3.6 in 2008; 4.2 in 2009; 6.2 in 2010; and 4.0 in 2011 (numbers courtesy of statcorner.com). All of those numbers are pretty far below average (~8.0). The drop in uBBs from 2010 to 2011 is a bit disconcerting, but we’ve seen Robbie go positive (2010-11) so I have faith that he can do that again.
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I think 2010 may be a career high for Robinson when it comes to walking, it just doesn’t seem to be a skill many acquire through time. Having a great batters eye and being patient at the plate just seems like one of those things you’re born with and never leaves you.
It’s scary to think about but Cano is actually less patient than big Vlad, the poster child for free swinging ABs. Yet his career walk rate actually matches Cano’s career high, which doesn’t bode well for Cano’s future when his bat slows down. This, combined with the regression of second basemen hystorically, is actually why I am not thrilled with the idea of re-signing Robinson. I know it’s going to happen, so I’ve accepted it. In the short term havingh Robby on the team is a huge plus, but in the long term I think we will look back and wish we had let him go.