Only a year ago, Yankee ownership and fans were talking about how the team could extend Curtis Granderson into the budget years of 2014 and beyond. This year, I don’t think I’ve heard a single fan mention the idea of extending him, and most of the talk is about trading him. One season can vastly change the perspective surrounding a player, and even with 43 home runs in 2012, it’s hard to call the outfielder a fan favorite.
In 2011, Granderson finished the season with 41 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and .262/.364/.552 slash line. His 7.0 fWAR was 8th best in baseball, 1.3 wins above Robinson Cano, and his home run total was only 2 behind Jose Bautista for the MLB most. In 2012, he hit those 2 additional home runs, but it took him 195 strike outs to get there, along with 15 less stolen bases, and 10 less walks. Even with the home runs, the left handed hitter hit less overall extra base hits, and Granderson’s ISO fell from .290 to .260. The decrease in power was hardly noticeable in his day-to-day game, and it was no comparison to his OBP falling from .364 to .319. In the matter of a year, his wRC+ fell from 146 to 116 and his fWAR fell from 7.0 to 2.6. But perhaps Granderson’s most troubling feature in 2012 was his fielding, which grew from average to noticeably distressing.
AP
Despite turning 32 years old in 2013, Granderson should see some improvements over 2012. It would appear that the Yankees are leaning towards switching him and Gardner in the field, giving him less area to cover and less negative field value.
When it comes to hitting, Granderson actually improved on his line drive rates last season. From 2011 to 2012, Granderson boosted his LD% from 18.2 to 23.0, while taking away 4% of his flyballs. This improvement went unnoticed because his batting average on ground balls fell from a career .237 average to .164. Assuming his groundballs become hits at career normal rates, Granderson then hits somewhere around .255/.345/.520. That bump in on base percentage is the biggest difference, and in total only about 14 or 15 ground balls that should have gone for hits but didn’t.
When it comes to xBABIP, Granderson appears to have much more than 14 or 15 groundball hits stolen from him. Of all qualifying players with over 300 plate appearances, Granderson ranked 7th amongst players with the largest underperformance between their xBABIP and actual BABIP. His xBABIP has him at .323, while his actual BABIP was .260, a difference of .063 points. Of course xBABIP needs to be understood within a certain context, since many teams play Granderson in a shift that should theoretically lower the amount of ground balls and line drives that go for hits. With that said, Granderson so vastly underperformed his xBABIP that within a large enough sample size, we shouldn’t expect his 2012 numbers to continue.
In 2013, Granderson should see a higher BABIP and better defensive numbers when switched to left field. His strikeout numbers should also regress as his plate discipline outside the zone and his overall contact rates were at an unprecedented low point. Expect Granderson to improve on his defense, contact, and strikeout numbers in 2013, but I don’t believe we’ll see anything close to 2011.
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3 Responses to Improvement In 2013: Curtis Granderson
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TIQ IQ
Interesting analysis and I agree with the conclusions.
If you want some writing feedback (I deal with a lot of student writing, so please forgive my need to provide feedback!) – you need to learn the difference between ‘fewer’ and ‘less’. (e.g., ” 15 less stolen bases” should correctly read “15 fewer stolen bases”).
I disagree, I think Granderson is going to continue to regress.
If he’s switched to LF, his defense will improve, but he’d also be playing a less valuable defensive position, so that’s not really much of a positive to look forward to.
As for his offense, I don’t see any room for improvement. His speed has declined, which explains some of the bad BABIP luck. His K rate continued to climb as he’s become a one dimensional player and pitchers continued to adjust. Pitchers threw him fewer strikes in 2012, and he responded by expanding his strike zone.
Granderson, much like Ichiro has become someone who is an asset against RHP at Yankee Stadium, but a below average player on the road or against lefties.
He’s a 1 trick pony at this stage of his career (though if your going to have 1 trick, homers is a great one)and at an age where players historically decline.
I expect him to have a bit more BABIP luck, but it won’t do much to offset the overall decline, his numbers will be similar to 2012
In my opinion, BAPIP carries more information than is credited. Luck affects it similarly to ba, obp. Line drive rate change is expected to be positively correlated, and here is negatively correlated with BAPIP change. In the article, Michael, you mentioned more frequent shifts employed, and I suspect that and pitching tactics better explain a 63 point drop. Until Curtis adjusts his approach and swing to all fields, his lower BAPIP will be sustained.
At the end of his successful 2011 season, it was Curtis, himself, who voiced concern with his worsened strikeout rate. He knows what is going on, and it’s a question of whether he can adapt, or if he chooses to.