The announcement that Alex Rodriguez will need to have surgery on his left hip and could be out at least until the middle of the 2013 season was an eye-opener for me. Suddenly, it is clear to me that A-Rod is done even if no one wants to admit it yet. His last full season was 2007. His last .400 wOBA season was 2009. His last 30 homer season was 2010. For the past couple years I’ve been among those Yankee fans who were waiting for a throwback season from A-Rod, arguing that all he needed was to be healthy and the team would have one of the better third basemen in the game, even at this late stage in Rodriguez’s career. This second hip surgery is cold water on my face. Alex will never be healthy again. He’s too old. Maybe he has 250 games left in him over the remainder of his contract, but I expect him to hang around, collecting pay checks, and not do much else.
Alex’s steady decline sheds a concerning light on the rest of the Yankee roster. This team is not a youth movement. Derek Jeter broke his ankle in the post season and, despite an excellent 2012 performance, will turn 39 next season. Mariano Rivera suffered a season ending injury in 2012, and turned 43 years old at the end of November. Andy Pettitte has tantalized Yankee fans with the stuff he has shown on the mound the past few seasons that he has played when he is healthy, but he too fits the potential A-Rod description. His mounting injuries are part of his decline, perhaps the defining part. No matter how good his stuff, a pitcher who will turn 41 next season poses a significant injury risk.
The newer players aren’t that young either. Mark Teixeira played only 123 games last season and has seen his wOBA decrease each year since he joined the team. Hiroki Kuroda will turn 38 next season. Even Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano are over 30 and probably have their best baseball behind them.
None of this is to say that the Yankees will be bad in 2013. The team is awash in pitching that can be used during the season or in trade. But the clock is ticking on the Yankees. As difficult as it may be to accept, there will come a day quickly when the team no longer has Mo, Andy or Derek, but is still paying a combined $50 million a year to A-Rod and Tex. When that day comes it will be difficult for the team to be good, no matter how much money it spends. That time bomb is another, less mentioned reason, for the team to cut costs now. The Yankees have too many legacy contracts to be truly spend thrift at the present time, but they’ll need to be as lean as they can as quickly as possible if they are going to be able to compete over the next several years while simultaneously absorbing the dead contract weight that has been put on the roster. Starting now, when you still have a legendary core of players who don’t figure to be on the payroll in a few years time, is as good a time as any.
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7 Responses to When will time catch up to the Yankees?
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TIQ IQ
Robinson Cano just turned 30 less than 2 months ago. i really doubt that he’ll be on the decline for the rest of his career. 30 is still young, if anything he should be in his prime right now. if he was in his mid 30′s i would agree with you. a ton of star players have had career years in there early 30′s.
There’s also the added complication that he’s a second baseman and second baseman notoriously age very poorly. Roberto Alomar was as poised as any 2nd baseman to thrive well into his 30′s posting a .336/.415/.541 slash line with a .406 wOBA and 151 wRC+ at age 33. He never posted another season with a WAR better than 1.7 and was out of baseball after 36. Cano may very well be on a decline phase as soon as next year, it would be very unwise to sign him to a 7-10 year deal considering he would be 38-41 by the time the contract finished.
250 games as a third baseman perhaps. As a DH he should manage to get at least 100 games per season but he will need around 140 a year to get that HR record at a pace of 1 HR per 6 games. It’s very likely that he’ll have to sign a one or two year contact after this one in order to break that HR record.
Basically what I was thinking. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is still the everyday day 3B when he returns, even though I think that is a mistake. I would rather see him DH most days when he comes back and become the backup 3B (Once or twice per week).
The “painted themselves into a corner” adage fits into this situation. As much as Cashman has worked magic in the past, bad contracts handcuff the team. There is nothing to do about it, I probably would have signed Tex to a big contract too. How can you guess a well rounded guy like him would become so 1 dimensional. The Arod contract was out of Cashmans hands.
Furthermore, the new stadium and the high ticket prices prevent them from a real rebuild. It would be conceivable to sell Granderson, Hughs, and Cano for several blue chip prospects and take a couple of years to develop youth, get under the 189, then using the youth and a couple of free agents from the luxury tax savings, and be back in business. But if you were paying 1000s of dollars for seasons tickets, would you like to watch that rebuilding process, live, and in color? On tv, fine. But to shell out all that money to see some old men and no names would be hard to sell.
So the Yankees have a rough balancing act, to rebuild with youth, get under 189, and put a contender on the field simultaneously.
Gonna be fun to watch.
the Yankees have three solid outfield prospects who might all be ready in 2014 as well as a couple of infielders ready by then.
Gary Sanchez probably is up a year later.
Which three “solid” prospects do you have in mind? Williams, Austin, and Heathcott? If so, none has spent any significant time above high A. Although they might get the proverbial “cup of coffee” call-up in 2014, they are unlikely to make major contributions until they adjust to the majors (assuming they do). That is more likely to happen in 2016.