You might need that helmet, dude. Courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Newsday
(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
Brett Gardner became the first of the Yankees’ 5 remaining arbitration eligible players to avoid it yesterday and sign a new deal for 2013, guaranteeing that no matter what warm body the Yankees stick in right field next season, they’ll at least have their 2 returning starters in center and left. As it was with Michael Pineda and Mariano Rivera, 2012 was basically a lost season for Gardner. He had just 37 plate appearances in 16 games before suffering the elbow injury that eventually ended his season. But Gardner swung the bat well in those 37 PA, hitting .323/.417/.387 and scoring 7 runs. The figures of Gardner’s new deal have yet to be disclosed, but with him playing so few games last year I can’t imagine he’ll get much of a raise from the $2.8 mil he made, if he even gets a raise at all. With what he did in 2010 and 2011, the possibility of Gardner coming back and playing a full season at that price tag is exciting and could end up being very beneficial to the Yankees.
Sure, Gardner’s stat line from 2012 has to be taken with a huge grain of SSS salt. There’s nothing you can definitively draw from 37 PA. But it is worth pointing out that Gardner’s solid slash line was consistent with the type of offensive production he’s put forth in the previous 2 years. It was an exaggeration of Gardner’s offensive makeup- high on-base guy with great speed, minimal power, and whose BABIP heavily influences where his batting average ends up- and that makeup is going to come in handy in next year’s lineup. The Yankees lack speed and they lack consistent contact bats, and Gardner brings both of those skills to the table. My days of hoping for Gardner to develop a little more power to his swing are probably over, but a return to his .270/.360/.370-style of offensive production would be incredibly valuable, possibly at the top of the lineup early in the season if Jeter isn’t ready to go.
And while we’re on the topic of value, let’s not forget Gardner’s elite defense. He posted some of the highest defensive metric ratings in baseball in 2010 and 2011, won the Fielding Bible Award for left field in those years, and could have finally gotten his due with a Gold Glove if he didn’t get hurt last year. Remember that Gardner hurt himself making a great sliding catch in left field, this is his calling card. There have been talks about switching Gardner and Curtis Granderson in the outfield this season and moving Gardner to center field, something that would only increase his value to the team and make the Yankees better defensively.
This constant mentioning of value is a subtle reminder that Gardner had been one of the most productive outfielders in terms of fWAR before getting injured last season. He had 6.2 in 2010, 5.2 in 2011, and although there’s no way to guarantee he would have repeated that this past season, he was certainly on the right path with his early offensive performance and his strong defense and baserunning. Based on those WAR values, Gardner was worth over $23 million in each of his 2 full seasons and he was giving that level of production to the Yankees for league minimum cost. Now he’ll come back after a year off, fully rested and fully healthy, with a chance to do it again.
Gardner’s playing style isn’t exactly conducive to staying healthy, but the fact that he didn’t take a full season’s worth of wear and tear this year should make him incredibly fresh coming into 2013. And a fresh Brett Gardner playing center field and possibly leading off at a salary below the league average is a dangerous Brett Gardner, especially if he can manage to dive fewer times and not foul so many balls of his feet. For all the talk about how the Yankees are going to fill their roster and stay competitive while tightening their payroll belt, Gardner stands as a reminder for how they can do it. He’s a cheap, homegrown player who uses his speed and patience to create runs offensively and save them defensively. Brett Gardner can be tremendously valuable to the Yankees in 2013, and I can’t wait to see him back on the field.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
6 Responses to Looking Forward To Brett Gardner’s Return
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Where to start? I take those numbers with a really, really big grain of salt. This is just my opinion (although I don’t think I’m alone in this) but I don’t really trust UZR (the concept is fine but there’s way too many moving parts between the primary data and the translation to WAR) and I think the fWAR methodology really overvalues defense-first guys like Gardner.
With respect to offensive output Gardner (according to FanGraphs) is more or less league-average (wRC+ of 91, 112, 97 from 2009-2011). Everyone got really excited by this guy in 2010 but that looks like an outlier year fueled by an outsize BABIP (.340 vs career avg of .319) and an unsustainable walk rate for a guy with so little power. In 2011 the walk rate dipped from 13.9% to 10.2% and it’s fair to note that Gardner struck out 101 times in 2010 and 93 in 2011, both way too much for a “contact-oriented” guy with little power. Also, his infield fly rate jumped from 8.8% in 2010 to 19.6% in 2011 which is kind of a disturbing trend.
This doesn’t mean that I don’t like Gardner or appreciate the dimension that he brings to the Yankees – I do like him and his style of game is needed by the team and was missed last year. What it does mean is that I don’t share the outsize valuation numbers that people are attaching to him. He is not worth 5-6 wins a year or the $23 million/yr figure you cite (although he is underpaid – he should be making more than the league average).
So, welcome back Brett – I don’t think people need to exaggerate your value beyond all reason to appreciate you.
That was very instructive, Roadrunner: the insight on k, bb and infield fly rates is very interesting. Have to hope his Bapip is freshened, maybe returning to the 2010 looping dink swings that were so productive.
I relish his return, but wonder if his skills may be optimized in YS left field, especially if Curtis is really averse to shifting. Maybe Curtis has played most all his life in center, is less adaptible; maybe Brett can charge more balls in shallower left.
I love the idea of Brett and Ichi plying their similar styles, double small ball igniters, but I pause to wonder if the homer-happy fans may be right about needing the slugging in right to offset loss from the catcher position, and third, if they don’t sign Youk or Reynolds.
I dunno, we still have boppers in Cano, Grandy and Tex, so if they could get their risp up, and we do sign a bopper for third, could be exciting. Baserunning pressure gets under pitchers’ collars if it is constant and aggressive.
Thanks smurfy. It’s roadrider actually, but, whatever …
I am not for bringing Suzuki back. He was awful for a year and a half before joining the Yankees and really had only about 3 good weeks with them. Gardner is a younger and better version of what Suzuki is now (not what he was). There’s no need for duplication there and having two guys with little extra-base power on the OF corners is, well, not a good idea. Don’t be fooled by the surprising power Suzuki showed in September. His lifetime ISO is .096. Even allowing for Safeco Park that’s really, really low. Even if Granderson and Gardner swap positions I don’t like the idea of having both Suzuki and Gardner in the OF.
Sorry for stepping on your handle, Roadrider – say are you related to the Scranton Railriders?
Only Ichi’s low OBP detracts from my thoughts of multiple timely hits from Ichi and Brett, along with their agressive baserunning as tonic for last year’s droughts when we didn’t bop them over the wall. Jete and maybe Cervelli would be complement baserunners. Enough to get Robbie back to hitting where it’s needed, even Tex and Grandy, as multiple opportunities convinces them a liner is the best probability?
Well I don’t think having more runners on base is going to influence Grandy’s, Tex’ or Cano’s approach at the plate. In theory it should be easier to get good pitches to hit with runners on but wasn’t the big knock on Cano and the team as a whole failure to hit with RISP? And after all, the Yankees did lead the league in OBP last year.
Cervelli’s a disaster. He didn’t hit a lick in AAA and is a lousy defender. His base running skills are not really relevant since he wouldn’t be on base enough to matter.
Bottom line, there is no magical cure for slumps. I don’t think that aggressive base running, irrespective of whatever value it has, can possibly make up for batting slumps. And I don’t think that slumps are the Yankees’ problem – they’re merely a symptom of decline on the part of some of their key players and things like Cano’s problems with lefties last year and Granderson’s issues.
i am not on this for the sports but i still will stay on