It’s not going to happen.
I should really just end it here, but allow me to justify this statement. This rumor about a Yankee trade with the Marlins is just not happening. It starts with the awful contract. It wouldn’t be the first time in baseball history, or even the first time this year that a bad baseball contract was traded away, but Alex Rodriguez‘ contract would be the worst of them all. There’s $114 million left on the contract plus $30m in bonus incentives, all for a player between the ages of 37 to 41.
Value-wise, Arod has averaged a 4.18 fWAR over the first 5 years of his current contract. If he miraculously defeats the recent spiraling trends and puts up the same fWAR for the remainder of his essentially $144 million contract, he’ll be earning $6.9 million per win above replacement. There’s only one team in baseball that can afford that type of contract, and that’s the team he’s currently on. So the idea of an organization like the small market Marlins taking on even half his contract is ridiculous when you consider that they’ll still be dishing out an optimistic $3.5 million per win above replacement.
Of course, no one ever accused the Marlins of spending wisely, so let’s assume they are ready to take on the money. Now we have to get around Rodriguez’ no-trade clause. Despite the booing and the lack of play, the third baseman emphatically stated yesterday, “I love the Yankees, I love this organization.”
Miami might be one of the few places he would want to play, but Rodriguez has been in New York for 9 years now, and his relationship with most of the young players appears to be extremely strong. As much as Derek Jeter is the captain of the Yankees, Rodriguez always appears to be the one reaching out to young players. You could argue that players like Robinson Cano wouldn’t be the players they are today without the direction of the 37 year old. With that, there is likely a large degree of attachment to his teammates, and assuming he’d leave for a new organization like the Marlins in far from a given.
Then there’s the issue of who the Yankees would fill in at third base. We know that Eric Chavez cannot play a full year on the field, nor does he want to, so the obvious in-house option is Eduardo Nunez. But Nunez is inferior to Arod both offensively and defensively. Going through the farm system, Brandon Laird is gone, so I don’t know what to suggest. Maybe David Adams and his 37 games at third base? You can’t rely on anything in the organization, so we’re probably looking at a free agent or trade scenario. But again we hit a snag because there’s very little on the open market, just Kevin Youkilis and that’s it.
Finally, the trade market might actually be interesting , and it’s possible that guys like Chase Headley and David Wright are available, but the prices are likely enormous on both. With a 2014 budget to meet, now is the time to deal with your prospects most wisely, and trading the farm for a player you don’t need to replace is not ideal. Considering the salary and the prospect value they’ll be giving away, are either a big enough upgrade over Alex Rodriguez? If you’re optimistic, perhaps, but with Wright’s injury history and Headley’s inconsistent career offensive numbers, I’m not sold.
It comes down to the fact that even if they can find an organization crazy enough to take just half his contract, the Yankees will be losing more value than they can reasonably find. If this team trades him, it would seem that it’s purely out of spite.
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