It’s July, and as Yankee fans, we’re all wondering who’s available at the trade deadline. Matt looked at Cole Hamels a couple days ago, Mike Axisa over at RAB likes Ramon Hernandez, and Steve Goldman at Pinstripe Alley took an interest in personal favorite Chase Headley. What makes this time of year so much fun are the countless trade rumors and proposals to consider, but most people don’t consider the expenses it takes to make these types of trades actually happen. Without Jesus Montero, the Yankees are in an unfamiliar situation, without a clear tradable piece.
Yesterday, Baseball America released their top 50 midseason prospects, with Mason Williams (28), Gary Sanchez (30), and Tyler Austin (39) placing for the Yankees. While these three positional Single-A players have an incredible amount of upside, and would most certainly be expendable from the Yankees’ perspective, other teams prefer to target players closer to the majors. The more mature and more tradable Yankee prospects, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, have fallen due to inefficiency and injury, and selling now would be selling low. When considering the type of package the Phillies want for Cole Hamels or the Cubs for Matt Garza, the Yankees no longer have that highly desired major league ready top 10 prospect, and it’s hard to imagine who teams could fall in love with. But there is one players who might fit some of the mold, and that’s David Phelps.
The 25 year old right hander was only a 14th round pick in the 2008 draft, and he never landed on any top 100 lists. Phelps always produced quality numbers and starts in his minor league career, but it wasn’t until the last couple of years that he better developed his secondary pitches that lead to better strikeout numbers. After shoulder problems last year, the starter made a strong comeback in the Arizona Fall League. This season, he finally received some praise from FanGraphs, as well as John Sickels, who ranked him the Yankees 7th best starter with a B- grade.
Phelps has built his biggest trade value this year, posting a 3.05 ERA, a 9.1 K/9, a 8.1 H/9, and a 3.7 BB/9 in 41.1 IP as a starter and reliever. He seems to have lucked out a bit this year, posting a 4.38 FIP and an 86.4 LOB%, but producing like this in Yankee Stadium in the AL East is no easy feat. With CC Sabathia scheduled to make his next start, David Phelps was seemingly hasted away to Double-A yesterday, despite a strong but shortened performance, striking out 8 Rays on Wednesday. While the move has something to do with adding Darnell McDonald to the 25-man roster, it also has something to do with Phelps’ trade value. Stretching Phelps out as a starter means he can be sold as a starter, which obviously gives him more value than selling him as a long reliever. It’s hardly a coincidence the Yankees have chosen to do this in the trade months of June and July.
The raw numbers are there for Phelps, and his surprising success is starting to look a little bit like Ivan Nova’s of last year. When Nova started the 2011 season, he posted strong numbers in the first half, but many doubted it would continue with his FIP hinting at regression. Through adding the slider, Nova only started to look like the real deal in the second half of last year. When evaluating Phelps, I think it’s fair to be on either side of the debate, whether you believe he’ll follow the same path as Nova or regress to his FIP numbers. Personally, there’s nothing about Phelps’ secondary pitches that impress me. While his slider is hard, it lacks horizontal movement, and looks more like a cutter, earning him a 10.4% whiff rate. The curveball also only breaks about 3 inches into left handed hitters, and has earned him an 11.8% whiff rate. Somehow he’s produced a 9.1 K/9 in his first 41.1 major league innings, more than he ever produced in the minors. While I don’t expect it to continue, I didn’t expect Nova’s success to continue either.
With Sabathia coming back, Phelps becomes the sixth starter in an organization that already has 7th starter DJ Mitchell, 8th starter Adam Warren, and Andy Pettitte coming back sometime in September. If the Yankees choose to sell David Phelps and one of the three High-A prospects for a pitcher, they’re losing very little depth, and starting to put together a good base package. If the team can find a believer, it would seem that David Phelps is the most tradable piece this July.
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7 Responses to Is David Phelps The Most Tradable Piece This July?
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TIQ IQ
Why in the world would you want to trade a kid who can be a cheap and effective fifth starter for a franchise that is always short on pitching and is now budget-conscious too? And how in the world are Williams/Sanchez/Austin “ependable” to a team that has virtually no position player talent near at hand and is locked into expensive contracts with declining stars? I realize the site has to generate a constant flow of ideas (and you guys genrally do a swell job) but, please, this is not 1975 or `8883 when you just go out and buy the best players for a couple of million bucks. Young players — as everyone else in baseball seems to realize- are precious, not “expendable.”
I like Phelps, I think he is a legit big league arm.
If he can play a big part in landing us an ace or long term OF or C solution than that’s fine, but I wouldn’t actively shop him right now. Pitching depth disappears in a hurry
should be “this is not 1975 or even 1995.”
I’m not against trading any prospect to get quality in return. However, I would not favor paying a high price to just rent Hammels and I’m not a big Garza fan.
Because of the lack of prospects, do the Yankees look to throw in someone like Brett Gardner to sweeten the pot in a Garza deal?
Which Yankee pitcher is Matt Garza better then, other than maybe Freddy who is just filling in until Petite gets back? I dont understand the need to trade for Matt Garza at all.
Brett Gardner is not a “throw-in.” He’s probably the fastest man in the American League and has led or been near the top of SB leaders for the last couple of years. He is moreover a patient hitter who works pitchers, helping to tire them, before unnerving them on the basepaths. In short, he’s a valuable commodity but as is usual when “grass is greener on the other side” fans propose deals, he’s undervalued. And since Bud Selig has once again tightened the screws on the Yankees with the new CBA. the last thing the Yanks should be doing is undervaluing their own young talent in the four-for- one deals for players other teams are willing to unload. Young talent is going to be harder to come by for Yanks (unless they tank the next few seasons and finish in fourth or fifth place, giving them more and better draft picks– I don’t think anyone is for that) so Yanks should be very cautious — stingy, really — in trading the talented young players they now have on the roster and coming through the system. They’re going to have to sustain us for the next five to ten years.