Alex Rodriguez is not having a bad season. He’s put up a 134 wRC+, good for 4th best among American League third basemen. He’s gotten there mostly by getting on base, hitting .292/.391/.431 on the season. He has just 5 home runs and 3 doubles. He’s improved significantly on his batting line over 2010-2011.
He turns 37 years old in July. At this point in his career, we should probably expect Alex Rodriguez to enter his decline phase. He’ll still be effective at times, but slowly fade into obscurity. Or will he? A closer look at Alex’s batted ball outcomes could lead us to some information here.
Arod has a 20% HR/FB ratio right now, not far off his 22.5% career rate. Last season, he got a bit unlucky with 14.5%. However, Alex is hitting fewer fly balls than ever before, at just 24%, versus a career rate of 40%. He’s managed to be effective because he has evenly distributed those remaining balls in play to both ground balls and line drives – he has career highs by miles in both categories.
I’m no swing expert, so I’m not going to make a nice little .gif about how Alex Rodriguez’s swing is different than it used to be. But he definitely seems to have changed his approach significantly. He’s not getting different results on a fly ball, he’s just getting different results on a ball in play. That’s a very important distinction. Arod may be transforming his late career into a high-OBP, moderate-power decline. Maybe this is the best way for him to remain effective late into his contract?
I think the important thing to draw from these numbers is that we’re not dealing with random luck. We’re dealing with different inputs from Alex, possibly for the first time in his Yankee career. Previously, his GB, FB, and LD percentages were very stable. Now, they are different. Regression and luck won’t drag him back to 35 home runs.
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3 Responses to Has Arod Changed His Swing Away From Power?
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TIQ IQ
“At this point in his career, we should probably expect Alex Rodriguez to enter his decline phase.”
Seems to me he entered his “decline” phase several years ago. That said, you make a strong argument that the diminished Alex of this year is pretty decent — I would gladly take current production as his “new normal.”
However,I do not expect much from him in coming years. Keeping him on roster through the final SIX (ugh) years of his contract will be a terrible mistake. I realize Yanks don’t have internal replacement option now or on horizon. Hopefully, they will have replacement within next three years as A-Rod inevitably declines. Meanwhile, this notion of keeping open the DH spot for him may have already played a role in the trading of Montero. This IMO is the tail (A-Rod’s contract)wagging the dog (Yankee future). And with Girardi incredibly reluctant to challenge his vets I see it a a looming and ever more threatening issue going forward.
At some point, Yanks will be well-advised to eat that awful contract and cut him loose. I’d say by 2015 for sure (at which time he’d still have three years on the deal).
i would welcome arod realizing he is not a power guy any more and try and spray the ball around and hit .300…he can hit .300…i just told that to a friend last week..in the beginning of the year i said he would not hit 20 homers this year..and he won’t..now tex has to realize the truth when up on the left side, and the yanks would score a bunch of runs..
I have to agree with Bottom Line. Just entering his decline phase? Do you watch these games?
I think Jason Giambi is also entering his decline phase. What do you guys think?