Hopefully we see this for more than 99 games in 2012
I was unhappy when the Yankees traded Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez. Back then I wasn’t as informed about baseball statistics as I am now. Even though the Yankees had clearly upgraded, I criticized the deal for all the bad intangibles A-Rod supposedly brought to the table, his un-clutchiness, his prima donna reputation, you know, things that had nothing to do with playing baseball. While I felt Alex had a solid season in 2004 and was unstoppable that ALDS against the Twins, I’ve been a huge fan ever since 2005, when he showed us all what he was capable of.
He reminded us again in 2007, and even more so in the 2009 playoffs. A-Rod could kill a man and he will always be among my favorite baseball players simply because of everything he did that October. If Alex doesn’t become unstoppable over a 15 game stretch in 2009 the Yankees don’t win the World Series that year (heck, they might not even get past Minnesota) and New York sports fans live in a different world.
Alex’s struggles in 2010 completely blind sided me. On the old Yankeeist site I speculated that once the pressure of winning a title was removed A-Rod and Mark Teixeira were safe bets to combine for 80 home runs. Everyone knows how that worked out. While that level of naivete is what keeps me a fan who is passionate about his team, given everything Rodriguez has accomplished in a Yankee uniform no one would have suspected that far more important than the number of homers Alex hits in 2012 is the number of games the Yankees keep him on the field.
2011 was not as bad a season for Alex as many believe. Largely based on his defense, which passed both the eye and the metric tests last year, Al finished with an impressive 4.2 fWAR on the season. While he was down offensively, his final wOBA of .361 translated to a wRC+ of 125. That’s solid, even if it not what the Yankees pay A-Rod to produce.
Digging deeper, Alex may very well have been on his way to a strong come back season before he sustained his injuries. He was batting .295 with an .852 OPS on July 7th, the last game he played before having knee surgery. On June 28th, just before Alex began slumping prior to having surgery, his line was .304/.382/.515 and it looked like the old A-Rod was on his way back.
This is strong evidence that Alex can contribute consistently when he’s healthy. Unfortunately it has become a herculean task to keep Rodriguez healthy. Recently I was speaking with a friend of mine about A-Rod when he mentioned that Alex seemed to be in irreversible decline. I countered that his on-field performance was fine when he was healthy, to which my friend pointed out that his chronic injuries are a symptom of his decline.
The key variable is therefore Rodriguez’s health, not his productivity, at least not through 2011. If the Yankees can keep Alex healthy for a full season he’ll put up respectable numbers, excellent numbers for a player his age, even if he doesn’t earn his notoriously out-sized pay check. At this point keeping Alex healthy has to mean keeping him on the field for about 130 games. Anything more than that is gravy.
If he can stay on the field for that many games the numbers indicate that he will still be able to produce at a respectable clip. While there really hasn’t been another player like Alex in the history of baseball (no infielder has hit as many home runs), Baseball Reference still feels that Alex compares most similarly to Hank Aaron. Obviously that’s a generous comparison on any level, but what I love about it is that Aaron had five productive seasons after turning 35. My hope as a fan is that Alex will have three more productive seasons, starting in 2012.
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11 Responses to Predicting A-Rod’s 2012
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TIQ IQ
Most injuries to ARod seem to occur when hes at the plate or running bases as opposed to fielding make the question even harder. I have no idea what to do with him going forward. People say he has to be moved to DH soon. But if hes playing stellar defense at 3rd when healthy, don’t you have to put him in the field? Or is he worth more as a full time DH? Or do you allow him to essentially effect 2 spots in your everyday lineup because the Yankees cant sign a full time DH while he is here? This also has a fallout effect on the rest of the bench, as we are witnessing this year.
If A-Rod can play the field and stay healthy then he belongs at third, especially considering how good his defense was this past year.
.262 17homers.. .320 obp. 87 games played
That would be downside.
And you admit to that? The deal was a no brainer even when the deal was done. Alex was one of the best young players the game had ever seen….and Soriano was a bad 2nd baseman who could not hit a ball on the outer end of the plate.
Why should I not admit to it? It was years ago and I didn’t know as much about baseball then. Obviously it was a no-brainer. My ignorance about the deal is what makes it a fun anecdote.
ARod is simply a beautiful war horse. Lethal, brilliant.
Unfortunately, wars take their toll. Going forward, in those times when the pain and decreased range of motion are not too bad we’ll see flashes of genius. Unfortunately, the moments of athletic lucidity will continue to decline. Such is the nature of decline.
such is the nature of no juice
I’m actually really encouraged for Alex and the coming season because of Kobe Bryant. I have watched almost every Lakers game this basketball season and Kobe’s knees look 5-10 years younger than they did last season, and at least 5 years younger than they did the year before. Kobe had gotten to the point last year where his explosion was almost gone, and his speed and ability to run the court had gotten noticeably labored. After he went to Germany and had this surgery, that he recommended to Alex, he look a whole new ball player. All the explosion is back in his knees, his ability to run the court looks as good as it ever did, and he has continually talked about rejuvenated he feels in his legs.
Basketball is a much tougher sport on the legs and knees than baseball just because of the amount of running and jumping that takes place, if Alex can get even a fraction of the rejuvenation I’ve seen from Kobe he is going to have a fine year.
We all know Alex still has the ability and talent to hit 40 and 120, he has just gotten to the point where he has a hard time staying healthy. I don’t think we’re looking at a return to those 40 and 120 MVP seasons, but if this surgery to his knee and shoulder does what it did for Kobe (and the hip doesn’t get re-injured) I think we are easily looking at 30 and 100 again. Which honestly is all we need from Alex at this point, with Tex smashing 37 HRs a year, and Cano’s overall ability with the bat.
T.O. Chris….
I think this is one of the few times we have ever seen eye to eye on everything you wrote.
Thanks for doing such a good job on your post. Very well writen!
Thank you very much!
Hopefully we agree more in the future, though not too much. What fun would this place be if we all agreed all the time anyway.