With all the discussion about Michael Pineda’s ability to pitch in the AL East following his trade, our readers should be very familiar with how good of a season he had with the Mariners in 2011. Such an impressive rookie season is rare to see, so I decided to take a look at how rare it actually is. I’ve compiled a few tables comparing Pineda’s rookie season numbers to other rookie seasons over the last decade. The players and numbers listed are taken in order, within Pineda’s range, based on Fangraph’s leadership board.
| Year | Player | K% |
| 2006 | Cole Hamels | 26.0 % |
| 2001 | Roy Oswalt | 25.2 % |
| 2011 | Michael Pineda | 24.9 % |
| 2002 | Josh Beckett | 24.6 % |
| 2007 | Tim Lincecum | 24.3 % |
| 2009 | Gio Gonzalez | 23.3 % |
K% is equated by dividing season strikeouts to total batters faced. This gives you the percentage of batters that struck out facing the pitcher in subject. The average K% by starters in 2011 was 17.7%, so Pineda’s 24.9% was well above the average. The table listed above is one of the more impressive lists I found. Four of the six names, Hamels, Oswalt, Beckett, and Lincecum, were or are considered aces at a point in their careers. The other name on the list, Gio Gonzalez could be on his way to ace status as well.
| Year | Player | K/BB |
| 2009 | Brett Anderson | 3.33 |
| 2010 | Madison Bumgarner | 3.33 |
| 2010 | Travis Wood | 3.31 |
| 2011 | Josh Collmenter | 3.30 |
| 2006 | Jered Weaver | 3.18 |
| 2011 | Michael Pineda | 3.15 |
| 2006 | Cole Hamels | 3.02 |
You can find K/BB by dividing season strikeouts by season walk totals. The resulting numbers gives you the amount of strikeouts the pitcher in subject had to walks, giving you an idea of how effective a pitcher’s strikeout ability and command are. The average K/BB by starters in 2011 was 2.37, which is nearly one strikeout less than Pineda’s 3.15. Again, we see a couple of aces on the list, (Weaver and Hamels) as well as a group of very young pitchers who project to sit at the top of the rotation. (Anderson and Bumgarner)
| Year | Player | Contact% |
| 2005 | Scott Kazmir | 75.1 % |
| 2003 | Dontrelle Willis | 75.4 % |
| 2010 | Daniel Hudson | 75.5 % |
| 2011 | Michael Pineda | 75.8 % |
| 2007 | Tim Lincecum | 76.0 % |
| 2002 | Jason Jennings | 76.1 % |
| 2009 | Gio Gonzalez | 76.3 % |
Contact% is the percentage of times a batter makes contact when swinging. The average Contact% by starters in 2011 was 81.8%, 6% higher than Michael Pineda’s. Gonzalez and Lincecum again appear on the list, and while Kazmir, Willis, and Jennings could be considered busts, all three were projected to be top of the rotation pitchers at their prime, and spent time in that role.
| Year | Player | SwgStr% |
| 2006 | Francisco Liriano | 16.0 % |
| 2003 | Brandon Webb | 13.4 % |
| 2002 | Mark Prior | 12.8 % |
| 2006 | Cole Hamels | 12.8 % |
| 2002 | Josh Beckett | 12.4 % |
| 2011 | Michael Pineda | 11.8 % |
SwgStr% calculates the percentage of swings and misses a player achieves. The average SwgStr% by starters in 2011 was 8.1%, 3.7% lower than Pineda’s numbers. Of the other five players, each one arguably spent part of their career as an ace, and each one has drawn Cy Young votes. Though Webb and Prior had short careers, they were considered to have some of the best stuff of the last decade. Webb won the Cy Young in 2006, and finished second in 2007 and 2008, while Prior finished third in 2003.
For all the talk about Pineda needing a changeup to become a top of the rotation pitcher, these comparisons should show how good his pitches compared to other rookies. While other pitchers obviously grew, those on the lists, mostly had a better developed repertoire at that point in their career. That he compared to rookies with three or four plus pitches shows how deceptive and impressive Pineda’s slider and fastball were in 2011. If he adds a third plus pitch, Pineda will continue to rank with the best of the decade.
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17 Responses to Pineda Finds Himself In Good Company
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TIQ IQ
So he is similar to a few aces, a few inconsistent mid rotation starters and a few busts? Uhhh, thanks for the information.
Looks good. The only caveat being that not a single one of those pitchers did it in the AL East in their rookie seasons, which is were Pineda is headed after posting those numbers in Seattle. I imagine he’ll regress in all those categories facing the stronger competition, although he should still remain well above average.
Scott Kazmir pitched in the Al East as a rookie (and on the Rays, so he had to face both the Yankees and the Red Sox). Moving to the AL East is definitely a jump in competition, but the fact that Pineda doesn’t have to face the Yankee offense makes the transition somewhat less severe.
For those that take anything away from Pineda for pitching in the AL West, you have to remember he doesn’t get to boost his stats facing Mariners bats. Imagine if he pitched with the Rangers.
out of his 28 starts, Pineda faced either an AL East Team or a AL Playoff bound team (Detroit, Texas) 14 times, he struck out 85 in 76 2/3 innings.
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This is a terrific post, not only due to its interesting subject matter, but also because you explain what you’re looking at, what the various statistics mean, and how you calculate them. Much appreciated!
I think there’s more success (and injury which this has nothing to do with) than there is failure. Besides, how many of those guys ranked in all categories?
This isn’t any indications of “sure thing” here, then again how many sure things are there in baseball? Nice job by the author giving us a few examples of similar past performance to remind some of us he’s still just a rookie, and could end up being a pretty nice pickup.
Indeed, Pineda is the only one to appear on each list (a biased fact given that he was the focus of the piece, but still impressive). From my quick look at the list, Hamels is the only one to appear on most of the lists. Not bad company to have. Many Yankees fans seem unwilling to recognize how unusually good Pineda’s rookie season was, especially if you ignore W-L and ERA and focus on his performance stats.
Because most Yankee fans are blinded by the Montero love they have. They are too busy putting unrealistic expectations on Jesus and running down Pineda to see the realistic side of either one.
Impressive. Nice work, Michaels, both! Command and whiffability, ranked with rookies, and well ahead of the league.
Let’s also not forget that Pineda did all of this in 170 innings at 22 years old. Tim Lincecum in comparison pitched 140 innings in his rookie year and was 23 at the time. So he’s further along in innings and age than Lincecum was at this point. Lincecum also had the advantage of pitching in the NL, in an even more pitcher friendly park than Safeco. Overall we have a lot to be encouraged by when looking at what Pineda did last year.
The most telling thing to me about Pineda is his control numbers in the minor leagues. He has shown an incredible ability to keep men off base via the walk at a young age. It would be one thing if he came up and posted great walk numbers after struggling with command in the minors, it would be more of a question going forward about ability to repeat or improve such numbers. But this is a guy with a very tall frame, with plus plus stuff, who has shown an ability to keep his walks under 3 per 9 since he was in A ball. That shows an incredibly advanced feel for mechanics, pitchability, and ability to locate. All things he is going to need pitching in the AL East to very patient lineups.
Nice analysis. I was strongly opposed to this trade. Pineda is likely to be a good to very good pitcher; Montero could be a Hall of Fame hitter. Still, I’m coming around. One key to the trade may be Russell Martin. Martin is such a good fielding catcher that it would be hard for Montero to become the regular catcher for the Yanks, even if his fielding improves to adequate. This leads to the conclusion that Montero will have more value in a trade than as a DH, especially because ARod is likely to be the full-time DH in a couple of years.
If you decide that Montero should be traded, than this trade looks pretty good. I don’t think the Yanks could have done much better, in terms of ability, cost, team control, and area of need.
If Edgar Martinez can’t get into the HOF Montero never will. Man I have never seen someone so overhyped in my entire life. It’s like if he does anything less than .300/.400/.530 every year his career will be Bloody failure.
Pineda has just as good, if not a better chance because he actually plays a position that gets inducted, of getting into the HOF as Montero. Because both are so unlikely to ever do so it isn’t funny. They are 22 and 23 years old, putting those kind of expectations on either one is beyond ridiculous.
Great piece, Mike.
I’m concerned that the mariners were shopping Pineda around. (offered him to the blue jays as well)
Yanks were determined to trade Montero, and it’s unlikely they were going to do better than Pineda. I’ve learned to accept the trade, but I just think we gave up the superior player.
Does it matter if he was? AA has said there are only 4 players he would deal Pineda for so its possible that it the subject was brought up during normal winter talks. (The Montero Pineda deal was on the table at least a month before Cash pulled the trigger)
That’s not been confirmed by anybody in baseball, and we all know a reporter would never make anything up to have a story to write. Plus if you were going to trade Pineda for Montero it makes sense that you would trade Pineda for Brett Lawrie, Lawrie actually plays a position in 3B, and even though every Blue Jay fan isn’t saying he’s HOF bound he’s just as talented as Montero is. If both stay healthy Lawrie likely provides better value over the course of his career just because he can play third.
I’m not really sure how anyone can say we gave up the superior player…. Shouldn’t a superior player be able to play the field in someway? Pineda is a 6’7, right handed power pitcher, who averages close to 96 MPH on his fastball, with a plus slider, and plus command. If he even develops a league average change or split he’s likely to provide more valuec thus being the superior player, than Montero ever will as a DH.
It’s just amazing to me that Montero can do no wrongm. He’s struggled in the first half of both his AAA seasons mightily, he’s had at least two incidents in the last two years of being punished for his attitude, he actually regressed in his second year in Scranton, and he has a very high strikeout rate in AAA and no one cares. All anyone talks about is “once in a generation bat”. The truth is he isn’t a once in a generation bat, he’s probably much closer to a Carlos Lee than he is Miguel Cabrera, or Prince Fielder, or Manny Ramirez, or Edgar Martinez. He doesn’t come close to the walk rates any of these guys have, so we need to stop grouping him with the best hitters in baseball the last 20 years.
Could he develop into a great bat? Sure he could. Is he a great bat right now? No he isn’t, he is less proven and more raw than Pineda is at the current moment. People act like he has nothing to work on at the big league level, which isn’t the case at all. He’s going to struggle unless he can work on his control of the strikezone. He needs to start walking more and cut the strikeout rate down quite a bit before he can even be in the same room with all the people he’s compared too. The funny thing to me is if he has the same career as Carlos Lee numbers wise I would consider that a huge success, but most people who have followed, and hyped Montero would be dissapointed. Because as good as Lee is and has been he isn’t a “once in a lifetime bat” or a “future HOFer”.