As Derek Jeter ages, the list of players who he resembles statistically grows more and more elite. They’re almost all HOF players. The only reason Rose isn’t in Cooperstown is because he’s ineligible. Biggio is likely to get in (barring a steroid revelation) at some point, as will Damon if he plays 2 more seasons and gets to 3000 hits (2723 currently). Ted Simmons is right on the bubble, and is the kind of candidate the Veteran’s committee will give serious consideration. Projecting elite players is a tricky business, since by definition they’re such an anomaly to begin with. When any player gets past the age of 35 I tend to trust projections such as PECOTA less and look at player comps more, since the risk of collapse increases annually. So I wanted to take a look at Jeter’s comps and see how they fared in their age 38 season.
- Craig Biggio-156 G .281/.337/.469 (.281/.363/.463 career avg)
- Frankie Frisch*-17 G .219/.242/.281 (.316/.369/.432 career avg)
- Johnny Damon-n/a (same age as Jeter)
- Robin Yount*-did not play (retired)
- Charlie Gehringer*-127 G.220/.363/.303 (.320/.404/.480 career avg)
- Ted Simmons -78 G .196/.293/.308 (.285/.348/.437 career avg)
- Cal Ripken*-84 G .340/.368/.584 (.276/.340/.447 career avg)
- Pete Rose -163 G .331/.418/.430 (.303/.375/.409 career avg
- Ryne Sandberg *-did not play (retired)
- Roberto Clemente *-did not play (deceased)
* – Signifies Hall of Famer
Biggio had one more good season at age 39, then dropped off substantially and retired at 41. Frisch stopped driving the ball at age 33, became a productive singles hitter through age 36 though was playing part time his last few years. Yount seems to have retired with something left, posting a .704 OPS in his age 37 season that was in line with what he produced the previous 3 seasons. Like Frisch, Yount stopped hitting with power after age 33. Sandberg’s career follows a similar pattern, hitting for less power after age 33 and retiring when he appeared to have something left. After a solid age 37 season Gehringer was pretty much done, and hung on for one more season as a part time player before retiring. Simmons played most of his career as a Catcher, and given the wear and tear of that position he’s not a very good comp.
Rose and Ripken are the standouts on this list. Rose posted a career high OBP in his age 38 season, posted his final 200+ hit season and showed no signs of decline whatsoever. Rose was a pure singles hitter at this point of his career, and was one of the most driven athletes and personalities I’ve ever seen in professional sports. He logged another 995 Hits after the age of 37, the most any player has ever recorded in the history of baseball. Ripken had his final big season, though he was being substituted in late innings and missed the entire month of August that year.
To summarize, one would have to think odds are against Jeter. The vast majority of the players he most resembles had little left this point of their career. Though as Biggio and Rose show, there can still be something left in the tank at that age. If baseball was a casino, I would have to think the smart money would be wagering against it.
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20 Responses to Jeter’s comps in their age 38 season
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TIQ IQ
This is an excellent post as you properly compare Jeter with premier players. They do tend to have longer careers.
Going just from memory, I would add a few names to the list: Musial had at least one good year in his late 30s. Most remarkably, Ted Williams hit .388 at age 39. Mays also had one very good late career before falling apart. I realize these are power hitters and perhaps not totally suitable comps. On the other hand, a few of your comps are second basemen and catchers, whose careers tend to end earlier, often abruptly. So there may be other reasons for their early declines.
Weighing all this, I think it’s very possible Jeter has another good year left.
bottom line…
Very good but, I have only one disagreement with you…your last line!
Jeter has been having longer and longer slumps for the last few years. I look for him to regress more this year.
I must say, I am hoping to be wrong but, I doubt it! Age has no pill to help stop it, everyone has to face the facts some time. It is time for Jeter to do so and not hang on for two years longer then he should.
To be a bit more precise,old yankee, I think he may have a good few months this year before things start to deteriorate. Maybe the adjustments he made last year are effective through, let’s say, July. Then it gets tougher. That’s what I was actually thinking. But who knows? I’m not ruling out a good year or even more just yet. None of us really knows for sure.
He might have another good year left, but I think this post shows that history is not on his side. This is a list of largely HOF level players, and most were done at his age. If he is as driven as Rose, maybe he can squeeze another year or two out of his body. But Rose lived to play baseball, he was fairly unique.
What about modern nutrition and training techniques? In order to avoid SSS issues, it might be interesting to look at ALL SSs in the last ten years, and see what the drop off in production (versus absolute production) was in the age 38 season. I hope he has a good year left, but I suspect that the third and fourth years of his contract will be awful.
How many 38 year old SS with a significant sample size have there been in the last 10 years? 1 or 2?
Omar Vizquel. Anyone else?
In a thoroughly scientific study I conducted, I’d say he has a very low chance of success next year due to the sizable crow’s feet Jeter now possesses.
http://www.heygoodcall.com/storage/image.jpeg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1325598700208
Notice the hair gets shorter and shorter each year. The shorter it is, the less you see the greys and notice the bald spots. I’m considering a similar move myself. :)
Obviously it’s difficult to draw conclusions based on 10 players (5.5 really) but I was actually impressed by how well they played at 38.
It’s also interesting that all the players on the list played their age 38 seasons in high offense eras except Rose and Simmons (and Frisch.) Maybe that’s just randomness, but it probably accounts for why they are similar players to begin with.
The sample is no doubt small, but if you expand it you start comparing him to players that aren’t elite and/or in his class. But you’re right, and I don’t claim this is anything other than anecdotal.
The offensive era stuff is a good point, I’ll add OPS+ to the numbers.
I mentioned last year that I thought Jeter would go down hill slowly.
The bad thing with Jeter is, he has always been a great hitter and a avg. to below avg. defender…I think everyone knows that… this being a fact, why would anyone consider him as a DH when he needs rest.
I truly understand his wanting to get 3,000 hits but, to put his team in a tight spot just so he can move up a couple more spots on the hit list is not the sign of a “Captain” and “Team” player.
For him and the team, it should be his last year in pinstripes, give the next guy a chance just like he was given!
I have no doubt, despite however bad he plays, that this won’t be Jeter’s last year. I imagine that his 2014 option is all but picked up in his own mind. Maybe two terrible seasons and a larger buyout convince him to walk away, but as of right now I’m not expecting it.
Not exactly sure what you mean by Rose being a “pure singles hitter” as he did hit 750 doubles and for a 16 year stretch averaged 40 doubles a year. He also had 160 homers and consider he only hit 10 homers in his last 10 seasons, meaning he hit 150 during the previous 14 years. Not exactly power numbers but not exactly “pure” singles hitter either.
You’re right, I should have said “at that point of his career”. I’ll edit that.
Fun article. Good stuff. A little quarrel, though, re: PECOTA. I believe that PECOTA IS based on comps so no reason to distrust them more with these type of players.
True, but when you get to players of this caliber, there are fewer and fewer similar players to begin with.
Although there have been a few players with similar numbers over the years, Jeter’s career is getting further and further into uncharted waters. Jeter’s closest comp through 37 is Biggio at 786 which isn’t incredibly similar.
Projecting someone like Nick Swisher (for example) a good but not great corner outfielder who is 31 is much easier for a projection system simply because there are many more players with that skill set. Swisher’s most common player is 953 and 10 most similar is 923.
But isn’t PECOTA designed to compensate for that (I’m not being sarcastic – I honestly don’t know enough to be sure)?
I don’t know what you mean by compensate. PECOTA doesn’t release their formula, so only they know if it makes sense or not.
The idea behind all the projection systems (except Marcel) is taking similar players in performance, age, and body type, and comparing them to the league average going forward. If there are fewer players that are comparable, the number PECOTA spits out will be less meaningful. They would never admit it though.
While the company is no doubt elite, I think you are overstating Damon and Simmon’s odds of enshrinement. Simmons didn’t last more than one year on the ballot (even though his numbers warrant a reasonable case) and was never really regarded as an elite player. Damon has never been thought of as a HoFer until people realized how close he is to 3K hits. The magic of that number has been called into question and the whole era is essentially tainted.
I have fallen into the trap of predicting Jeter’s downfall for a couple seasons now and I have looked foolish each time. It has to be this year right? Maybe not with this guy. I just hope that when the time comes, Jeter will do the honorable thing and take the decision to drop him in the order out of Girardi’s hands. At least platoon with Gardner in the leadoff spot.