Ivan Nova in the second half of last season was, at the very least, the second best starting pitcher on the best team in the American League. 8-0 with a 3.18 ERA and a 2.35 K/BB rate, the late-blooming Dominican right hander with a big body and big stuff looked to be putting everything together at just the right time. Old for a sophomore, but still a ways from his peak at 25, the question with Nova is no longer whether he can prove a legitimate prospect, make it to the highest levels, or survive in the Bronx. The question is whether his ultimate upside remains that of a back rotation starter, or whether his 95-MPH fastball, his slider, and his propensity to induce groundballs can make him more than that.
Nova’s greatest asset is that ability to induce groundballs, at a greater than 50% rate in each of the past two seasons. For a righty in Yankee Stadium this is a must, and with a 0.71 HR/9 last season, it’s no wonder Nova was able to maintain an ERA under 4.00. Preventing the long balls, and to a lesser extent the doubles and triples, that go along with a high flyball rate is a large part of the battle Major League pitchers face. In this division, park, and league, a high ground ball rate can be a career saver.
The young righty also, of course, has a reasonable ability to control the baseball. He’s no Greg Maddux, but things are trending in the right direction. After walking 3.8 batters per nine between Trenton and Scranton two seasons ago, he limited those walks to just over 3.1 per nine between AAA and MLB in 2010. Spending most of last season in the big leagues, his combined walk rate in 2011 dropped to just over 2.9 per nine. As he’s climbed the lader, facing progressively better competition, he’s become more confident in his ability to get the ball over the plate without being hit around.
The groundballs are great. The control is getting there. But what about the strikeouts? For a young pitcher with his stuff, especially one who doesn’t spend an exceptional amount of time in the zone, you’d want more strikeouts and for Nova to become more than what he is he’s going to have to miss more bats.
It’s worth pointing out that Ivan Nova’s stat line last season, while impressive, was not unprecedented in recent history. There have been a string of prospects to come to the big leagues with solid control, the ability to induce groundballs, but stuff not yet harnessed for the purposes of striking batters out. Over the past 20 years baseball has seen 13 pitchers with a strikeout rate less than six and a half per nine, a walk rate less than four per nine, and less than a home run per nine innings in their rookie seasons. These aren’t the fireballers, or the future aces, but there are some decent pitchers in there. Andy Pettite for one. Hiroki Kuroda. Kris Benson. Donovan Osborne. Among recent examples, guys like Zach Britton and Rick Porcello, Nova is ahead of the curve.
Chien Ming Wang would make the list, had he pitched enough innings in 2005, but on some level I doubt the comparison is fair to either pitcher. Nova’s stuff is more impressive. He’s a much more polished pitcher at this point and his strikeout numbers are far better. Wang was a one-trick pony. A very good trick it was, but when that sinker wasn’t sinking he was dead. Nova’s a more complete player already, and I think there’s enough in place for some improvement going forward. Yet he’s never going to have that one dominant pitch the way Wang was and path forward with Nova is not so clear. Wang’s sinker was so good, he competed for Cy Young’s. Nova is a more conventional pitcher and his development will likewise be more conventional.
The question then is whether the strikeouts will appear. If not, he is far from doomed. That old breed of pitchers, the Dereke Lowes and the Kurodas, are really good pieces. But figuring out how to miss bats could make Ivan Nova the next Andy Pettitte. And we’d all like that. There are some encouraging signs. Nova adjusts to leagues, like most young pitchers, but his strikeout numbers are particularly subject to such adjustments. After striking out fewer than five per nine in his full season debut, he saw an increase of nearly two full K/9 upon promotion to high-A. The next season, placed in the high minors with very little experience, his strikeout rate stayed below six at AA and AAA. But the next season, repeating Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he struck out a full seven batters per nine innings.
Even within season, we saw a major improvement in 2011. His early season strikeout numbers were around five per nine, in line with his cup of coffee in 2010. But in the second half he struck out nearly six per nine. Not only that, he missed bats without sacrificing control. He was in the zone. He was just throwing better pitches and his walk rate plummeted, sending his K/BB rate well above two.
I’ve never been Ivan Nova’s biggest fan, and that reluctance to embrace him a prospect, and then as a Yankee, had a lot to do with the lack of strikeouts. But for a guy with his raw ability the development we’ve seen is very encouraging. He moves quickly. He struggles at a level, but eventually he begins to improve. He improves rapidly in all facets of the game. He becomes more confident, he throws more strikes, and then finally he throws better strikes. With these improvements come fewer walks, then more strikeouts, and eventually a lower ERA. We saw this in the minor leagues. We’ve seen this so far in his short Major League career. Small sample size not withstanding, I wouldn’t expect a sophomore slump. In fact there’s a very good chance, even should his ERA rise, that 2012 is a major step forward for the Yankees fourth or fifth starter.
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13 Responses to Ivan Nova’s Strikeouts
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I like Nova, he has a chance to be a very valuable starter for this team for the forseeable future. But, I don’t think he is going to see any real rise in his strike outs going forward. He seems to simply be more of a ground ball, pound the zone type of pitcher, who needs to control the walks to stay a middle of the rotation guy. He actually had a slight dip in his swinging strike percentage from his cup of coffee to last year, going from 6.8% to 6.6%. However neither is really a number that would indicate that he misses bats at a high enough clip to generate more than the 5-6 K/9 he currently gets. I think just the addition of the slider over a full season will see his K/9 rise some from the 5.3 he finished with last season, but at most I see a rise into the high 5′s or very low 6′s as likely.
He’s a good middle of the rotation starter but I think some people got a little ahead of themselves last year declaring him a future number 2.
Second starter would really be pushing it. I think the upside here is that of a decent third starter. Right now he’s more of a #4 or #5. I still don’t buy the conventional wisdom on Nova, though. He’s got the raw stuff and command to be a better pitcher than he is and his value isn’t all that closely tied to those groundballs. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of room for improvement and that improvement is being realized quite rapidly. He isn’t yet as valuable as the praise he gets in Yankee-land might indicate but the room for improvement and the likelihood of said improvement occurring is, I believe, higher than conventionally thought.
When he was coming through the system, because he was a command/groundball guy, we heard that he was polished and near reaching a modest ceiling. After coming to the big leagues a 24-year-old rookie and pitching so well it seems confirmed. But if you look at his minor league record he never flat out dominated for his age/level. He also didn’t see major production drops as he climbed the lader. There was always an adjustment period – we even saw that in the big leagues – but his growth generally outpaced his (fairly rapid) ascent through the system.
To me, Nova screams unrealized upside. I tend to think what he is now is a bit overrated. I tend to think next season could be a slight disappointment from an ERA perspective. Something around 4.00-4.25 wouldn’t surprise me. And given that he’s not the flavor of the month upside pick that’s going to scare some people off. But when you look at the raw talent, the body, the fact he’s not [i]really[/i] a Chien Ming Wang type groundball pitcher, and the fact that he’s improved so rapidly and consistently… you have to think there could be more there. If he can get that K/9 solidly in the sixes and get those walks below three and keep his groundball rate where it is watch out. I don’t think that’s all far fetched.
I think we see Nova in a similar light, though I think he’s likely to be a 3+ BB pitcher his whole career. The K percentage may increase some, but the swing and miss percentage doesn’t indicate a much higher rise on that. If he settles into a 3-3.5 WAR starter he’ll be right around what I expect him to be. That’s very valuable to the Yankees in a young cost controlled arm though, so there’s nothing wrong with that at all.
The ultimate strikeout ceiling is really an unknown at this point. I don’t want to be terribly optimistic. Still, I’m not sure I’d expect SS% to be a leading indicator so much as a directly related rate. I suspect his SS% was probably substantially better in H2. So at this point, I’m confortable hoping for a long-run level in the mid-sixes. That’d do a world of difference.
I think there’s less room for improvement in that walk rate. You might be right. Whether he’s around 2.6-2.8 or 3.1-3.3 isn’t un-important. I tend to be more optimistic because of where he is and where that trend is going. But I think that’s partially an issue of maturity and approach and we can’t glean much from where he is now.
Ultimately, yes, I think he’s a 3-4 WAR pitcher when he reaches his ceiling. Perhaps a little bit more. Possibly a little bit less. I just think most of that growth comes from the strikeout rate.
I think swinging strike percentage in this case is actually pretty telling. at 6.6% Nova is posting SwStr% at almost the exact rate as Wang when Wang was striking out 3.14 and 4.70 K/9. In fact in 2008 when Huroki Kuroda was striking out batters at a similar rate to Nova now, 5.69 K/9 for Kuroda, and 5.33 K/9 for Nova, his SwStr% was 9.3% much higher than Nova’s 6.6%.
Strike out ability is more than just being able to get strike three, it’s also about being able to make strike one and two easier. Having the ability to miss bats early in the count makes it easier to get strike three. So far in his career Nova has underwhelmed in getting swings and misses, even for his K/9 range.
I would like to see the difference in his first half and second half swinging strike percentages, but if he finished the season at only 6.6, down from 6.8 in his cup of coffee in 2010 I imagine it couldn’t be much different.
This isn’t a popular topic, but I’m going to bring it up anyway. I still think the Yankees could wind up trading Nova – especially if he has a strong 2012. This isn’t just because the Yankees “trade all their young players for aging stars”, but there are several Ivan Nova-types at Triple-A this season. Could David Phelps or Adam Warren (more so than D.J. Mitchell) develop into a pitcher in Nova’s mold? The chances seem pretty solid.
Going forward, I think the Yanks envision Nova as a No. 4 or 5 on their club after Pineda gets acclimated to NY and ManBan (hopefully) establishes himself as a Major Leaguer. Who knows, maybe Hamels and/or Greinke hit FA and maybe the Yanks nab one of them. That just creates an even better problem with the crowded rotation.
We’ll have to see how Phelps and Warren perform, but I don’t think it is a stretch to expect them to bring the same sort of package to the big league club as Nova has.
I’m not saying that they should trade Nova, I’m just saying I would not be surprised if this scenario unfolded.
I think the Yankees value Nova pretty highly. I don’t think they see him as a “top of the rotation” guy, but I don’t think they look at him as a 4 or 5 guy at all. He may very well ended up slotting in at the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation (though with Kuroda not coming back next year he may very well be the 3), but I don’t believe they value him as such. Because of that I think they would have to get back middle of the rotation starter or better value in return to make a trade for Nova.
I don’t see Phelps or Warren having the upside that Nova has, at best they seem to have the upside of a number 4 starter with a more likely outcome being both of them are 5th starters. DJ Mitchell is a long man or middle reliever to me so I don’t put him in these conversations.
At this point I could see Hughes being traded before Nova, though I think Ideally the Yankees would love a rotation of Sabathia, Pineda, Nova, Hughes, and Banuelos in the next 2 years. That’s a young, cost efficient rotation that would help the Yankees get under the 189 million mark. Plans change of course, and this is all assumption, but if they could pull it off I think this would be the “dream” scenario for the rotation in the Yankees eyes.
I could see the Yankees making a major play for Hamels if he hits the market, but at that point all plans go out the window since they wouldn’t have a pray to make it under 189 million. Grienke I don’t think they would blow up the current ambitions for 2014 for at all.
I am also a big Nova fan. I don’t think he can be an ace, or even a real number 2, but if he just keeps this up and ends up as a guy who gives tons of innings, limits walks, and doesn’t surrender any easy long balls he will be a very valuable 4th guy. If he develops into a Wang with better strikeouts, all the better.
If he maintains what he did in the second half he opens up a lot of doors the the team. If Nova keeps up what he did in the second half, he can firmly entrench himself in the middle of the rotation. I think he should be used as a measuring stick for Hughes, and free agents. If they cant match Nova, then don’t sign them. If Hughes can’t match Nova, then perhaps it is best to see what trade value he has, or move him back to the pen and let one of the cheaper prospects have a chance to prove themselves.
I’ve really never understood the Wang comparisons. It seems like a lot of fans want to immediately jump to Wang when talking about Nova, but as Alex touched on they aren’t all that similar outside of both having fastballs that can generate ground balls.
Wangs fastball was much better than Nova’s, there is no real debating this. Wang’s fastball was a heavy sinker that averaged 94 MPH, generating ridiculous ground ball numbers. In fact in his first 3 years he had more than 62% ground balls twice (63.9, 62.8, and 58.4). Nova on the other hand was at 92.4 MPH last season and he has generated ground balls at a much lower clip over the past two season (51.4, 52.7).
I actually really liked Wang’s slider and I think it gets underrated because of how good his power sinker was. Nova’s new slider and Wang’s are probably pretty comparable, but again as Alex touched on, Nova has a more complete repertoire. Wang’s Slider and split worked with how good his fastball was, but Nova has a slider, curve, and change all better than Wang’s split.
Interestingly enough even though Wang’s K/9 numbers were quite a bit below Nova’s they have almost identical swinging strike percentages. Wang’s control was better than Nova’s is at the current time, but Nova actually has a better K/BB ratio than both Wang’s career numbers and his first three years with the Yanks.
Wang was never an ace, and his prime was way too short because of injury, but at his best he was a back to back 4.4+ (4.4 and 4.7) WAR pitcher. That’s more than solid as a number 2 starter. If Nova posts multiple seasons with that kind of WAR production he will surpass my expectations of him at this moment, and could easily settle in as a number 2 starter(even if he’s pitching in the 3 spot depending on how Pineda develops) on a rotation that already has Sabathia and Pineda for years to come.
The only comparison is the ground balls, and the ability to keep the ball in the yard. Nova has the tools to surpass Wang, and if I remember correctly, Wang had some durability concerns in the minors that Nova does not.
If Nova develops, I hope the Yankees go forward with the idea that he is the number 4 starter, and try to acquire 1 more proven ace and let Pineda and Nova develop in the middle. A strong rotation is necessary in order to help what will soon be a declining and aging offense.
Even the ground balls aren’t really comparable. Nova is an above average ground ball pitcher, Wang was an elite ground ball pitcher unlike almost anyone in baseball. I’m not so sure Nova does have the ability to surpass Wang. He can be the much more complete pitcher, but Wang’s fastball is much more dominant than any pitch Nova has. At his peak Wang could slide in as a number 2 on almost any rotation in baseball. I think Nova’s upside is that of a very good number 3, but putting up multiple 4-5 WAR seasons I think is slightly out of reach.
Wang’s arm problems in the minor leagues came from being mostly a slider pitcher. He wasn’t even actually taught his now infamous sinker until after multiple injuries in the minor leagues, which allowed him to ease way off on the use of his slider and thus relieve the pressure on his elbow.
The Yankees don’t need to go acquire another ace caliber pitcher. First of all there aren’t even all that many pitchers that qualify as an ace in the first place, that term is way over used. Second the Yankees need to go forward with whatever the actual evaluation of Nova is after another full season of innings this year. If a pitcher comes along that fits what the Yankees are looking for go with it, but there is no reason to go out of their way to find another starter. I wouldn’t be looking to hand out large contracts to Grienke, Marcum, or A. Sanchez, and trading Banuelos and/or Betances for pitching wouldn’t make much sense at this point.
I’d be careful in saying he has the tools to surpass Wang. I think he’s certainly got a more complete toolbox but Wang’s sinker was very, very valuable in and of itself. In my wildest of Ivan Nova fantasies everything works out and he’s much greater pitcher than he looks capable of right now. Realistically though? He’s unlikely to be CMW good. As T.O. Chris points out, Wang was a 4-5 WAR pitcher in his prime. If Nova is that kind of guy he’s a second starter. And I do think that’s just a bit over his ceiling.
What I will say, and the reason I brought up Wang, is that Nova has a lot that the extreme groundball pitcher don’t. He’s not one of them and putting him in that box is a little unfair to both Nova and the Wang-type pitchers out there. Nova doesn’t have a good enough sinking fastball to be just a groundball pitcher like Wang. Very, very few guys do. But he’s also got a much better and more completely overall repertoire that allows him to survive as a groundball pitcher around 50-55% grounders as opposed to 60-65%.
I’d be willing to move Nova in the right deal but I wouldn’t be looking to do so. On that I’ve changed my position after seeing some growth at the end of last year and looking over his minor league record more carefully.
If they sign Hamels and Banuelos destroys AAA and one of the other guys step forward or Hughes steps forward then yes, absolutely, he becomes even more expendable. I wouldn’t necessarily count on that playing out and I don’t think Warren, Phelps, or Mitchell is that kind of raw talent.