I’ve heard too many Yankee fans argue a .259 average with only 7 homeruns is embarrassing for the lineup. EJ stifled those remarks in October and explained how Gardner’s standard statistics may not look pretty, but fWAR places him amongst the top 30 position players in the game. I have to agree with EJ, Gardner’s 5.1 fWAR goes ignored by the typical baseball fan. Trading an undervalued player is counterproductive, but what if Cashman could find a GM that overvalued him?
Courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America
By now, I hope you’ve heard the story behind Moneyball. Billy Beane competes with teams who have three times the payroll by using advanced statistics to find undervalued players. Most GM’s have bought into sabermetric analysis by now, and WAR is the number that ties it all together. With such a high WAR, Gardner would hit the open market at a premium position in centerfield, in his first year of arbitration, and under team control until 2015. He’d be a stud in the mind of a saber influenced GM.
For the Yankees, Gardner is an afterthought compared to a star like Cano, who had a similar fWAR. The influence of defense on WAR could be argued endlessly, instead I think WAR overvalues Gardner based on his role with the team. The organization has shown a reluctance to lead Gardner off, and playing him in centerfield won’t happen. With Jeter and Granderson holding up Gardner’s hitting and position spot, the Yankees aren’t utilizing his full potential.
Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Mike Stanton, Josh Hamilton, and Carlos Gonzalez all ranked lower than Gardner in terms of WAR. If another team actually believes he’s worth more than these outfielders, the return could be quite interesting. I truly believe he’d be one of the best fielding centerfielders and best leadoff hitters, but if the Yankees are still convincing themselves he should be hitting in the nine-slot playing left field, I’m willing to say goodbye.
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29 Responses to Is It Time To Trade Gardner?
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TIQ IQ
I’m less concerned about Gardner not playing CF, because LF in Yankee Stadium is a bear and because Gardner’s speed allows Granderson to play closer to LF. However, Jeter batting leadoff against right handed starting pitchers, rather than Gardner, is a costly mistake.
While Jeter batting leadoff against righties may be something to watch, if you look at the statistics from last year, there wasn’t that much of a difference between the 2 against righties. I haven’t been able to find their batting lines for the 2nd half of the season only, but I’d bet Jeter was at least equal and probably better against righties than Gardner during that time frame.
Again, I do think this something worth watching going forward, as Jeter may not sustain his 2nd half performance. I also think, due to his ability to wreak havoc on the base paths, that Gardner could add more value if he got to the plate more frequently when he’s not batting leadoff.
He’s under team control till 2015. That is one of the keys for me. Since defense doesn’t seem to be a major influence on arb salary adjustments, his value will continue to remain high. As Jeter ages, the Yankees may see a time where he’s no longer viewed as a leadoff option, opening the door for Gardner. Similarly, if Granderson regresses or if they can’t come to an agreement with him once his current contract expires, Gardner’s value to them will increase. I’m all for keeping him (especially if the Yankees truely want to reduce payroll) for the foreseable future, unless they’re offered a huge haul for him.
Yikes.
Great tweet
Gardner has speed to burn! He gets on base enough to cause havoc
with his speed alone and is a perfect balance with all those
lumber guys. He is a cheap keep and the Yanks are certainly
better with him on their side.
Great post. Gardner has been undervalued and Yanks would need to find trading partner who understands the game-changing impact of his defense and speed. But I would only trade him as key piece for that elusive second starter.
Agree with Larry and BL. He makes everybody better because of the attention he attracts. Don’t you love it when the pitcher throws over 3 and 4 times in an ‘at bat’. I don’t know why fans boo when the opposing pitcher throws to first, when it’s exactly what’s intended. Where’s the statistic for all that?
dont do that willbe a mistake we need hes speed in the outfield
and we need someone to stole the 2nd and thirdth.
Noooo!!!!! Do not trade Gardner. Are they nuts??!! Who cares if he hits homeruns…he steals bases like no one else and continuously makes great defensive plays.
Bottom line is trading him WITHOUT a great return is foolhardy. He’s their best outfielder, by far; in fact, he ought to be playing center rather than Granderson. The only reason he isn’t is that Granderson is easy to run on and needs cutoff men to have great arms (which both Jeter and Cano do). The Jeter thing is overblown, he’s gotten far more AB’s in the 2 hole so I doubt it would have significant OBP impact.
If they can find someone to take him they should. He can’t hit left handed pitching and he can’t bunt (although at least he tried this year) so he can’t lead-off. Great outfielder and he can run but when you actually need him to steal you a base doesn’t try. Last years playoffs against Tigers. 9th inning Yanks down by a run he leads off inning and gets to first. He doesn’t run and next 3 hitters go out in order. Yankees lose! Either he did not want to run or his manager did not trust him to run so why is he in line-up?
Trade him to us!! Yankees blow the big horn!
Argggh!!! If I read one more post about those ridiculous fWAR numbers for Gardner I’m going to barf. The concept of WAR is a basically sound one for batting and pitching stats but the jury is definitely still out on the defensive stats and their translation to value. Gardner’s out sized defensive numbers (according to FanGraphs) are the lion’s share of his fWAR number. The problem with this is that Gardner does not play a premium defensive position and while there is an adjustment for that I really have trouble believing that LF defense can boost an average to sub-par offensive performer to a 5 or 6 win player. Earlier this year FanGraphs had Gardner rated at ~94% of the value of Albert Pujols and higher than Evan Longoria. Now Pujols had a down year (for him) and Longoria was hurt and had a rough start but do you really believe that Brett Gardner is 94% of Albert Pujols and better than Evan Longoria? I don’t.
Gardner is a superior outfielder but even given that, how often does superior LF defense make that big a difference in a game? Unlike hitting where you will get your turns at the plate you can only make a difference in the field when the ball is hit to you. And you can only make a difference over a merely competent fielder when confronted with plays that are outside the scope of what a fielder of average competence can make. How many of those are there in a typical game for a LF?
As a hitter, Gardner had one year (2010) where he outperformed his abilities fueled by spikes in BABIP to .340 (compared to a career number of .317) and BB% to 13.9% (career: 10.9%). Gardner regressed in both categories last year (.303 and 10.2%). Furthermore, his IFBB% spiked up to 19.6% (compared to 8.8% in 2010) which is a lot closer to his career number of 14.0%. In terms of wOBA and wRC+ we see numbers from 2009-2011 of .337, .358, .330 and 99, 120, 103. None of this is bad but it shows that the 2010 Gardner, which most Yankee fans seem to think is the “real” Gardner, was perhaps a bit fluky. Gardner is at best an average offensive player with good base-running skills and very good OF defense. The Yankees are probably not maximizing his value by playing him in LF and batting him ninth but I really doubt that the difference is as large as you think it is.
I’m willing to trade anyone in the right deal. But the Yankees don’t have any OF in their system that are ready to play at the MLB level so they need to get an OF back (please don’t tell me the solution is to sign Cespedes – he most likely wouldn’t be ready until 2012) so what would be the point? They’re not going to get pitching help and an MLB level OF back for Gardner (most GMs don’t base their decisions on fWAR).
Couldn’t agree more.
Seconded.
Two corrections: 2013 as opposed to 2012 with respect to Cespedes; and on Gardner’s IFFB% his 2010 number 8.8% is actually closer to his career number than the 19.6% rate Gardner recorded in 2011. The point is he improved over his 2009 rate by > 6% in 2010 and then regressed to a rate > 4% more than the 2009 rate ( a swing of >10% in the wrong direction) last season.
I’m not sure I see how the Yankees are under-utilizing Gardner and, by extension, better off trading him away.
If much of his value is tied to his defense then batting him 9th wouldn’t indicate underutilization.
While he’s probably somewhere between his .358 (2010) and .330 (2011) wOBA output, I just don’t see a rational way to get him to the top of the lineup as long as Jeter can still hit lefties as effectively as he did last year.
If the Yankees want to get serious with Jeter and broach the subject of different lineups with Jeter at the top (vs. LHP) and at the bottom (vs. RHP), I don’t think that has to dovetail with a discussion about trading Gardner away.
King Felix for Gardner
DO NOT trade Gardner.Put him at the lead-off spot and keep him there for 162 games and don’t screw around with him. This kid does so much when he gets on base with his incredible speed and it does not always show up in the box score and translate into fashionable statistics. Vin Scully said it best “Statistics are like the lamp post to the town drunk, they are good for support but provide very little illumination.” At the risk of revealing my age, I saw Mickey Mantle play and this kid has Mantle speed in the outfield. Mantle was my boyhood idol and I do not say this lightly. Gardner can run down balls that other people can never get to and he knows exactly what to do after he catches it.
He is young and tough and baseball smart and that should count for something!
Gardner is a 4th outfielder @ best. He have speed and don’t know how to use it. He can hit lefties and can bunt for “s….” Gardner along with Swisher should b traded.
Yankees should be concernd about their pitching staff and not Gardner. Put Gradner up first and he’ll do his job and you won’t think of trading him!
Antonio Scapacci III
Kevin Long needs to get with Gardner and work some of his Granderson MOJO on him before spring training ends!I don’t think Gardy will ever be a major home run hitter,but he’s sure got the potential to be more of a spray hitter like Ichiro. If we can get a Gardner that hits .285-.300/high OBP to go with his speed…nobody will ever talk about trading him again! Kids got tools…Tune him up and keep him!
Oh how tiresome is the writer who drops terms like fwar and war without even parenthetically spelling out the acronym. F in journalism. First mention: spell out. Take another F.
And F is an acronym for?
Tony Magz says:
January 11, 2012 at 9:47 pm
At the risk of revealing my age, I saw Mickey Mantle play and this kid has Mantle speed in the outfield. Mantle was my boyhood idol and I do not say this lightly. Gardner can run down balls that other people can never get to and he knows exactly what to do after he catches it.
He is young and tough and baseball smart and that should count for something!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Tony…
I agree with every thing you said except one, one big one….I met Mickey and watched the Yankees from 1948 to now. Mickey was (is) the only TRUE 5 tool player I ever saw but, comparing Bretts speed to Mickeys is insulting to Mickey. He was timed, from a FULL left handed swing, to 1st in 2.9 seconds. You saw mickeys swing right, he ended up like a pretzel but, still made it faster then anyone…the same with a bunt! Even when he bunted (almost) back to the pitcher, the pitcher just picked up the ball no play at first base at all…that’s how fast he was.
Anyone talking about trading Brett, doesn’t really understand some of the finer points of the game…baseball is as much a mind game as anything else. When Brett goes back to his old way of taking the BAD pitches (4+ pitches per at bat) he will be around the .280+ mark. Pitchers don’t want to walk him, therefor, they will…by being to careful…then the fun starts etc.!
Really Gardner is terrible…. His number are like a shortstop;259 7 hr and like 39 rbi’s really and we need to keep him why. for a guy that is so fast he never makes any amazing plays. Granderson is much better fielder. They need numbers in left like Matzui. ba 300 25 hr 100 rbi. I would have traded him and kept Montero..
I like Gardy…but this is an example of why saber stats like WAR are an epic JOKE.
Gardy has a higher WAR than Holliday, Stanton & Cargo??? LOL!! That should tell you how worthless that stat really is. End of story.
WAR is flawed because it factors in UZR, which like all defensive metrics are flawed. Certainly I don’t believe Gardner’s defense provides the kind of value UZR and WAR credit him with, but saber stats aren’t a joke. They have their flaws like all stats but used the right way they provide you with a much better understanding of the game. That’s like saying since batting average is epicly flawed when judging batters all stats are an epic joke. It’s simply not true and short sighted.