Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees were among the teams who have attended several of Rich Harden’s recent starts, including his dominant outing last night against Toronto. With Freddy Garcia on the DL, and question marks abounding in Bartolo Colon, AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes, and Ivan Nova, Harden does represent a potentially intriguing addition to the Yankee rotation. Harden has strikeout ability that only CC Sabathia has on the Yankee staff at present, and this ability to generate swings and misses can be potentially valuable.
On the season, Harden has pitched only 53 innings, but has been fairly effective (10.19 k/9, 4.08 bb/9, 4.12 FIP, 3.73 xFIP) when healthy. He probably has benefitted somewhat from pitching in the spacious Oakland ballpark, but overall, this is what we have come to expect of Harden: a lot of strikeouts, a decent amount of walks, and inconsistent health. According to Fangraphs, Harden has been making his living this season with his fastball (average velocity 91.6) approximately 60% of the time and his changeup the other 40%. Despite being essentially a 2-pitch pitcher at this stage in his career, Harden has been able to rack up strikeouts.
Would Harden represent an upgrade over the back end of the Yankee rotation, and be a potentially playoff starter? Quite possibly, but there is ample uncertainty regarding Harden’s health. When healthy, he has the ability to outpitch everybody in the Yankee rotation currently except CC, but his health may not be a sure thing down the stretch (and he may not be able to pitch very deep into games). The Yankees are in good enough shape for the playoff chase that they likely won’t need Harden to win the wild card (or the division). However, should the unreliability of the non-CC rotation options continue, Harden could be lined up as a potential playoff starter.
Of course, with any potential trade, what it would come down to is the difficulty of acquisition. Because Harden would have to pass through waivers to be traded, all teams in the AL with a worse record would have the opportunity to claim Harden before the Yankees, so there is a reasonable chance that he gets claimed (if only to block other teams from acquiring him). If he does make it through to the Yankees, the cost won’t likely be very high, since he won’t be worth draft pick compensation in the offseason (the result of his few innings pitched due to injury).
As such, it likely won’t cost a significant prospect, and I imagine the Yankees wouldn’t want to give up anything big for a guy with Harden’s injury history. Boston backed out of a Lars Anderson + PTBNL trade due to Harden’s medicals, but considering his injury history, it is not surprising that an MRI of Harden’s shoulder/elbow would not look promising. If the cost isn’t high, and by some miracle Harden makes it down to the Yankees on the waiver wire, I see little downside in trying to acquire him.
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9 Responses to Yanks scouting Harden
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TIQ IQ
The only season Harden has made 30 starts or more was his 2004 campaign where he posted a fair 3.99 ERA. Although I wouldn’t mind Harden in pinstripes, I don’t think it is a necessity. I have enough confidence that Garcia will come back in 15 days healthy and as much concern I have for the performance of Bartolo Colon as of late, I think the recent outings of Phil Hughes give me enough confidence that without Bart, the Yankees can still make a good post season run.
not a chance he clears.. not sure why this is even up for debate
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Harden will not make it down to the Yanks on the waiver wire and if he does he’s another question mark healthwise, so much so the Red Sox pulled out of a trade for him. What does that tell you about the guy?
Jake Peavy > Rich Harden
Peavy will cost little because he’s due $21M next year if the Yanks buy him out, $39M for 2012-13 if he’s #2 great next year cuz they’ll pick up his $22M club option for 2012 if he is. Spare me what he’s owed this year, it’s just money. The Yanks blew $13.1M on a year of old washed up Posada and another $11.75M on Kei Igawa ($4M), Pedro Feliciano ($4M), and Damaso Marte ($4M – $250K buyout = $3.75M), three pitchers who won’t throw a single pitch for the 2011 Yankees.
What team is blocking the Yanks from getting Peavy? Even if a team blocks the Yanks and Chicago pulls him back, the next team who claims him when Chicago puts him on waivers again will own his remaining salary for this year and another $21M or $39M. I don’t see a single team out there willing to risk being on the hook for either amount plus what he’s due the remainder of this year.
Bottom line is neither Garcia nor Colon will be Yankees next year, neither Hughes nor Nova are locks to be in next year’s Yankees rotation all year, Burnett is an overpaid #5, and Sabathia could be gone if say the Angels make him an offer he can’t refuse. I could easily see Artie Moreno (the Angels deep-pocketed owner) offering him 7 years at $25M per for $175M total the minute he becomes a free agent and if I were Sabathia I would seriously consider taking it not only because of the money but because he’d make the Angels the instant best rotation in the AL and second-best rotation in MLB after the Phillies. If the Angels get Sabathia, don’t be surprised if Weaver doesn’t stay with the Angels and possibly take less to stay like Cliff Lee took less to return to the Phillies.
Sabathia/Weaver/Haren/Santana/Chatwood or Sabathia/WHO’S THE #2???/Hughes/Nova/Burnett. The Angels’ rotaton BURIES the Yankees’ rotation. .
Peavy turned only 30 on May 31 thus could be a Yankees rotation fixture for the next 4 to 7 years with his talent. If Garcia can do what he’s done this year after a blah 4.64 ERA 2010 and Colon can do what he’s done this year after being out of baseball for a year and barely pitching in 2009, Peavy can certainly give the Yanks a 16-20 win, sub 4 ERA 2012.
You all say let it go/give it a rest yet you offer no better solution. All you do is just nod with the moves the idiot Cashman makes. Wait, what moves?
Btw the very fact that the Yanks are looking at someone from outside of the organization means they are not happy/content with the rotation after Sabathia. You better believe other teams will block the Yanks from getting Harden even if it means being stuck with him.
When the White Sox fade (they will), that’s the time for Cashman to call about Peavy.
It’s happening and if it doesn’t happen, Cashman is a fool cuz he would”ve passed on a guy who’d cost nothing in the way of prospects and who no team would risk being stuck with moneywise to keep him from going to the Yanks.
[...] nearly traded to the Red Sox at the Trade Deadline, but why are they doing so? Is that a good move? The Yankee Analysts answer those [...]
yanks have the 2nd best era in AL. nova is reliable, hughes has been great since his return for the DL.
[...] a move to the bullpen, but I don’t think that’ll happen. We know the Yankees are looking at Rich Harden for possible help, but I don’t think we’ll see anything materialize there. [...]
[...] nearly traded to the Red Sox at the Trade Deadline, but why are they doing so? Is that a good move? The Yankee Analysts answer those [...]