I want to take a moment to compare the numbers of three different pitchers so far this year. I’ll reveal who they are momentarily. Pitcher A has spent some time on the DL this year, but he has also logged 141.0 innings of 3.32 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.23 WHIP baseball, for a 2.3 fWAR. The injury bug also bit Pitcher B this season, but he has still managed to accumulate 119.2 innings of 3.31 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.24 WHIP baseball, good for a 2.2 fWAR. Finally, Pitcher C is known to be fragile, but has held up well this season. He’s the only one of the three who hasn’t gone on the DL this year. He’s managed to put up 122.1 innings of 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.31 WHIP baseball, for a 2.3 fWAR.
The table below compares these three side by side:
These three pitchers have been more or less identical this year. Pitcher A has gone deeper into games, but he hasn’t pitched as well as Pitchers B or C over all. Apart from that mild difference, these pitchers have put forward nearly identical performances. Pitcher A is Jon Lester. Pitcher B is Bartolo Colon. Pitcher C is Freddy Garcia. All of three of them have had similar seasons, but as far as the baseball media is concerned only Lester is that all important second playoff starter, while the Yankees are supposed to have a huge problem because the two pitchers they have who are pitching as well as Jon Lester can’t be counted upon in the playoffs the way Lester can, even though they are pitching slightly better than he is.
The argument that the Yankees don’t have a clear number two starter for the playoffs after CC Sabathia is entirely false. The argument is based on two premises. First, Colon, Garcia and Ivan Nova are all exceeding expectations, which is taken to mean that the wheels may come off the band wagon at any point in time, probably in October. Second, Colon and Garcia are old. They can get injured at any point in time, probably before October. Neither of these arguments stands up. Pitchers are volatile, regardless of their track records. Just ask CC about the week he’s having for evidence. Pitchers are also prone to injury, regardless of age. Jon Lester is a young pitcher, but he’s spent about as much time on the DL this season as Colon, and more time on it than Garcia.
The claim that the Yankees have a problem because they lack a clear number two starter for the playoffs is a case of a predetermined conclusion in search of facts to support it, not the other way around. The narrative this entire season has been that the Yankees have a thin rotation. The Yankees’ starters’ ERA of 3.71 is fifth best in the American League, and overwhelming evidence that the rotation is fine, if not a source of strength for the team. The only reason analysts say the Yankees don’t have rotation depth is because they weren’t supposed to get it from Colon and Garcia. Instead, they are getting depth from those two pitchers and no one wants to admit it. The reality is that the Yankees right now have not one, but two, suitable options to back up CC in October. Provided everyone can stay healthy (a risk for the young as well as the old), the Yankees will have excellent rotation options for the post season, even if no one wants to admit it.
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16 Responses to Let’s play name that pitcher!
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Look at the splits though. Colon has dominated bad teams but been mediocre against teams with winning records (4-6, 4.4 ERA). Garcia’s splits are less dramatic but other than his shutout of Texas, he hasn’t pitched great against really good teams. Lester on other hand is an elite pitcher who beats great teams (9-2, ERA in the low 3′s against winning clubs). Whether you want to judge on stuff or results, Lester is a better option in the playoffs.
That said, while the Yankees have a disadvantage against Redsox in the #2, I think they have the pitching advantage in the #3 and #4 games if they play head to head. Also, the Redsox might be the only team in the AL playoffs with a great #2 (assuming Angels don’t make it) so I think the impact of not having a great #2 is probably overblown.
Also, you quickly dismiss how much deeper into games Lester goes. Maybe not a big deal not, but very important in the playoffs.
Ivan nova #2 starter by playoffs
The purpose of this post wasn’t to dismiss Jon Lester. It was to point out that narrative, not peformance, is why the media is concerned about the Yankees’ number two starter.
Would I take Jon Lester over Bartolo Colon in a playoff start? Yes, in a heartbeat, but the difference isn’t large.
Lester goes about an inning deeper into games than Colon or Garcia — who are strictly limited to 100 pitches, meaning they could go longer in October. When he leaves, in the 7th, he’s typically given up 2 runs. When Bartolo leaves, in the sixth, even against a good team, he’s given up … at most 3 runs (on average). If Lester and Colon went head-to-head in game two of the ALCS Colon would, on average, leave an inning before Lester, with the game tied or the Yankees trailing 3-2. Now seems like a good time to mention that the Yankees have the best bullpen in the AL.
Provided there is no change in performance between now and October, Colon and Garcia represent excellent options for October, options who are almost as reliable as Jon Lester has been so far this year. I also feel Girardi will let them go deeper into games in October, neutralizing some of the difference.
Colon hasn’t been the same pitcher since he came back from the hamstring injury. He’s not as economical (averaging about 5 IP/start) and while I haven’t checked PitchFx to confirm at least to my eyes his control and movement haven’t been the same. You add that to the fact that good teams have hit him well all season, I just don’t understand how you could argue that there is only a small difference between Colon and Lester.
Also, I think you’re dead wrong on Garcia and Colon going longer in October. The games are a lot more meaningful (thus shorter leash) and they will be facing teams with better and more patient offenses. Garcia and Colon will likely be 5-6 inning pitchers max. I’m ok with that given the quality of the Yankees bullpen but it’s not close to what you’d get from Lester when he’s on.
There is only a small difference between Colon and Lester because their numbers on the season are virtually identical according to every measure. Lester has an advantage in IP, but he is otherwise less effective, so the difference in fWAR is minimized. If we remove factors not related to performance, we’re practically analyzing the same pitcher.
Bartolo has made eight starts since coming back on July 2nd. He pitched at least six innings in half of them. He pitched into the fifth inning in two more. While that isn’t quite as deep into the ball game as he was going before the injury, the difference is more due to a tighter leash than anything else. For example, he was yanked after six innings against the Angels after allowing only two runs and 90 pitches. While I don’t recall the situation when he was pulled from the game, he easily could have gone another inning work load wise. When he was pulled after 4.2 innings against Boston he’d allowed also just two runs on 94 pitches. He was in a jam, but it wasn’t impossible for him to get out of it and then, once again, his pitch count would have allowed for another inning.
What is the point of working so hard to monitor the pitches Colon and Garcia throw in a game in August, if that won’t be expanded come October? Colon and Garcia have been 5/6 innings pitchers because the Yankees are controling their work loads, as they should. It is precisely because of that, though, that come October I expect they’ll be allowed to throw another 10 pitches or so, if their performances merit it.
Have you looked at the game logs? The most pitches Colon has thrown in a start this year is 105 which he did twice, both times in July. It just isn’t accurate that Girardi has been using him differently to conserve bullets. He’s pitching less deep into games based on his stuff and/or the league adjusting to him, not because Girardi is resting him.
With the exception of one game in which Garcia threw 112 pitches early in the year, he’s mostly been pulled after 95-105 pitches all year long. If you were to average his 1st and 2nd half starts, he’s maybe averaged 5 less pitches in the 2nd half. I don’t think that’s due to any plan to conserve him either.
Do you really think in a close playoff game if Garcia or Colon are at 90 pitches in the 5th or 6th inning and the other team puts someone on base that Girardi isn’t going to the bullpen? He is and frankly he probably should.
As far as your comparison of Colon to Lester goes, do you really think it’s wise to ignore that Colon has been mediocre against winning teams when that’s what you are facing in the playoffs?
I am taking my numbers from the game logs. While it is true that Colon hit 105 pitches only twice this season, he has pitched at least 99 four other times, including three performances of 102 or more pitches. There is a tremendous difference between the 90 pitches he tossed against the Angels last Thurs and 103 pitches. It is about an inning of work.
As I sated previously, in six of his eight starts since coming off the DL Colon has gone at least five innings and he’s gone six innings in four of the eight. With the exception of his dominant starts against Oakland and Baltimore, his length is unchanged.
My understanding is and has been that the Yankees want to rest Colon and Garcia now, and have been fidning opportunities to do that. This has also translated into monitoring their pitch counts during games.
If Colon or Garcia is at 90 pitches in the 5th or 6th inning and either allows a single base runner, not only do I expect them to remain in the game, I’m certain it will happen and they’ve earned it. That is by no means a high leverage situation.
If you read my reply to Duh, Innings! below you will see that I do not discount Colon’s mediocrity against teams with winning records. If we punish Colon in this way (which I feel is arbitrary, but that’s a different discussion), then he still leaves the game after six innings with the Yankees right in it. The game is either 2-2 or 3-2 Boston, after six innings. That is a winnable game. Bartolo would have held his own against Boston’s number two, and we have to add more than a run to Colon’s season ERA (and completely ignore Garcia as a possible number two) to come up with that kind of analysis.
Could Colon have pitched another inning against Anaheim? Sure, he probably could have. The game was tied 2-2 though, Colon had thrown 90 pitches over 6 innings, and Girardi had Soriano, Robertson and Mo available for the last three innings. He’s going to pull Colon or Garcia everytime under that circumstance. The only starter that would probably be allowed to pitch the 7th is CC. It had nothing to do with trying to give Colon a little rest as if 10-15 pitches saved is going to make some measurable difference. If you look at the four games prior to that he threw: 105, 99, 105, 94. The first three games of July were his first two back in which he was re-building endurance and the game against Toronto in which he gave up 8 runs in 2/3 innings. There’s just no evidence that Girardi is trying to rest him. Maybe he should, i just don’t see how you can say that he is.
If your starting position was that Garcia and Colon have had good seasons and could keep them in the game over 5-6 innings of playoff baseball, you’d have no argument from me. That’s not what you really want from your #2 though. That’s what you want from your #3-4 starters. They are at a disadvantage in game 2. You’re right that its importance to their overall playoff chances is being blown out of proportion, but it is still a disadvantage in that one game if they have to play Boston.
You are banking on the best-case scenario.
In theory Garcia or Colon could go toe to toe with Lester through six, maybe seven innings, but the fact is, the less Garcia or Colon go, the earlier the Red Sox get into the weaker part of the Yanks bullpen, as Rivera and Robertson are the better part. The only time this isn’t bad is if Lester goes less where Boston can’t bring in Bard yet.
If Garcia or Colon leave the game in the sixth giving up 3 runs, the Yanks are in deep trouble if the Red Sox are up 3-0 or 3-1 with Lester on the mound which is entirely possible. The Yanks bullpen has to be goose eggs perfect for Bard comes in the 8th and Paplebon comes in for the save.
Also you seem to ignore that Lester could easily pitch a full seven innings. If he does that, Bard in the 8th, Paplebon to close. Would you really want it to be 3-2 Boston through seven? Why settle for that? What if Robertson does his usual highwire act of putting two men on and Big Papi slams a two-run double in the eighth, Red Sox 5-2 through eight? Paplebon would a nice cozy three-run lead provided the pinch-runner for Ortiz isn’t driven in for a sixth run. It could happen.
I’m not proposing the best case scenario. I’m describing the average case and using the worst case scenario that was presented as the base line.
If we assume that Lester goes 7 innings with an ERA of 3.32, then he leaves having given up 2.6 runs. If we assume Colon goes 6 innings with the 4.4 ERA cited above (which is more than an entire run above his actual performance this year) then he leaves having allowed 2.93 runs. The score would essentially be tied, with the Yankees having to turn to either David Roberton or Rafael Soriano for an inning.
That’s an entirely winnable situation, and it is the average probable outcome, if we arbitrarily punish Colon. Would I rather the Yankees be winning? Of course! But the onus of victory is on the offense in a 2-2 tie or 3-2 ball game in the seventh inning. The Yankees can and have tagged Bard and Papelbon for lone runs before.
My point remains that the Yankees have gotten number two quality performance from at least two of their starts so far this year, but that performance has been discounted for reasons that are not based on performance. This holds up even if we analyze from a severely handicapped base line.
Teams don’t score 2.6 and 2.93 runs, and games don’t happen in a vacuum where starting pitching is the sole determination of the game. 2-2 or 3-2 Yanks/Red Sox…sure, but who knows? Who knows what both bullpens do after Lester and Garcia/Colon? Boston owns Mo, the Yanks sometimes own Paplebon. It’s an unknown.
Look at Sabathia vs. the Red Sox. 0-4 crap in most of those games, yet he’s been great most of the year and Garcia hung with Lester for five innings on 8/5 and helped the Yanks win.
My point is while stats show Lester, Garcia, and Colon are similar in some stats, Lester is more likely to outduel either if Boston played perfect defense and scored enough to be ahead when whichever Yankee starter has to give Girardi the ball.
I hope your outcome is real although I wanna see 3-2 Yanks : ) My problem with Garcia and Colon is they’re not guys who are likely to leave the game allowing no runs or one run through six and I’m sorry, #2s have to do that sometimes. They have the talent to do that, but it’d be tough against the Red Sox offense.
Not getting Cliff Lee could further haunt the Yanks like it did last postseason esp. if he makes it to a third World Series this year.
It would be tought to go six allowing under 2 runs against the Yankee offense also.
As I said, would I rather have Lester as my number 2? Absolutely! But under the circumstances I feel that the concern about who will take the mound for the Bombers in October is over blown.
Yeah but who collapses out of nowhere more offensively, the Yanks or Red Sox? The Yanks are a half-game out of first place more for their offense, not their pitching. They pissed away two solid starts Garcia gave vs. the Mets and a start where Burnett pitched solo homer only ball across 7 IP against lowly KC. ‘Say they beat the Royals tonight. If they had won just one of those Garcia games against the Mets, that gem Burnett spun against KC, and just two more games from Boston (for 4-8 still crappiness), they’d be four games ahead of Boston with 13 games against the crap of the AL after tonight before 3 at Fenway. Even if the Yanks were still only 4 games up going into Fenway 8/30 a series win would make them 5 games up on the first of September with 26 games left to play and you’d have to like their chances of winning the division thus avoiding starting every postseason round on the road.
Garcia and Colon are 5/6 IP guys more than 7/8 IP guys. I just don’t see that cutting it across three rounds. It’s possible, but improbable.
I think the concern over the rotation is legit because everyone save Sabathia and Burnett is overachieving. What else? NO ONE expected Garcia/Colon/Nova to be the 2/3/4 and anyone who says they predicted that is a liar. Also there’s the question of Colon’s durability and to a lesser extent Garcia’s. Part of Nova’s success is the unfamiliarity with him. The book on him is growing and he must adjust to the forthcoming adjustments to keep doing what he’s doing.
The danger of this team not winning it all or even getting past the first round is the offense could continue to pull a Jekyl And Hyde and the postseason team/s they draw could finally catch up to Garcia, Colon, and maybe Nova. Better Yankee starters than Garcia and Colon have been shellacked in the postseason.
The Yanks don’t have a clear #2 because neither Garcia or Colon is a #2 overall over time.
Garcia was a 4.64 ERA pitcher last year. Colon DIDN’T EVEN PITCH last year. The Yanks got Garcia for $1.5M base, Colon $900K. That’s what the Yanks thought of them. Who else wanted these two besides the Yanks? I know the White Sox didn’t want Garcia back. Who wanted Colon? Enough to bid for him?
Lester is 5X more a #2 than Garcia and 10X more a #2 than Colon. Lester is a 72-31, 3.51 career pitcher who won 19 games last year and is on pace to probably win 15-16 this year. He’d easily be the Yanks’ ace if Sabathia wasn’t.
Garcia and Colon are just overachieving, that’s it. NONE of us including the author of this entry envisioned Garcia or Colon to be higher than #4s. Many of us didn’t envision either or both making it out of spring training let alone to 8/16. Garcia and Colon are gifts and most likely flukes. They have saved the 2011 Yankees bacon. They are the 2011 version of 2005 Small and Chacon, only with much bigger resumes.
Are Garcia and Colon pitching like #2s this year? Sometimes. I’d say they’ve been solid #3s who are closer to being #2s than #4s. Garcia more than Colon, but to call them #2s is wishful thinking at best.
When you say Garcia and/or Colon is #2 good, you are also saying either starts Game 7 if Sabathia couldn’t and I’m sorry, as much as I like Garcia and Colon and am thrilled they have done what they’ve done for basically $2.4M combined, either vs. Beckett, Verlander, Ugando, Weaver, Halladay, Lincecum, Grienke, or Juergens is edge the other team, starting pitcher matchup-wise.
The Yanks starters’ 3.71 ERA is deceptive as the AL is overall a lesser-hitting league than in years past, or it just seems like most lineups aren’t dangerous or concerns. It could be me but it seems like every team save the Red Sox and Yanks has only one truly fearsome hitter or no truly fearsome hitter at all. Texas’s truly fearsome hitter is Josh Hamilton, Detroit’s is Miguel Cabrera, Toronto’s is Juan Bautista, but who truly scares you on Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Seattle, and Los Angeles? Do those teams strike fear in you. It is no coincidence that the Yanks, Red Sox, Tigers, and Rangers would be in the postseason if the season ended today. These teams have dangerous lineups.
Mike, at last I’ve read an analysis that makes sense when talking about the Yanks’ perceived lack of pitching. Of course another thing that’s seems to be over-looked is that pitchers don’t compete against each other, they compete against the opposition’s hitters. Obvious? Obvious like the way a golfer competes against the course, the strong-willed player doesn’t forget that Truth, in either sport. I’ve watched baseball for decades now, and it still amazes me how many times teams win for reasons that have little to do with how the rotations line up. It’s nice to have big names fronting your staff, but it’s not everything…….