Following up on Larry’s piece on prospect hugging, I wanted to insert another reality check about a prominent member of the Yankee farm system. For years, we’ve heard about Jesus Montero’s “can’t miss bat” from respected sources like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Scouts and talent evaluators all agreed (or did at one point) that whatever his shortcomings may be defensively, whether he sticks at Catcher or not, the dude can flat out rake. When trade proposals would be floated among Yankee fans online, a common argument against trading him would be “you don’t give up an elite bat for (insert pitcher here)”. It always struck me as foolhardy to assume anyone will be “an elite bat” at the MLB level, and the Yankee willingness to deal Montero raised an eyebrow for me. Jack Z (who has extensive expertise in player development) passing on him in favor of Justin Smoak raised that eyebrow further. Teams always know their players better than anyone else, and while no knowledge is perfect odds are they see something everyone else is missing or has yet to reveal itself. In the case of Jesus Montero, I think we are now getting enough data to see what others may have missed. Here’s his advanced stats from his Fangraphs page:
| Season | G | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 (R) | 33 | 123 | 9.8 % | 14.6% | .140 | .310 | .280 | .366 | .421 | .373 | 126 | |||||||||
| 2008 (A) | 132 | 569 | 6.5 % | 14.6% | .166 | .362 | .326 | .376 | .491 | .389 | 142 | |||||||||
| 2009 (A+) | 48 | 198 | 7.1 % | 13.1% | .228 | .381 | .356 | .406 | .583 | .446 | 185 | |||||||||
| 2009 (AA) | 44 | 181 | 7.7 % | 11.6% | .222 | .321 | .317 | .370 | .539 | .407 | 152 | |||||||||
| 2010 (AAA) | 123 | 504 | 9.1 % | 18.1% | .227 | .319 | .289 | .353 | .517 | .375 | 132 | |||||||||
| 2011 (AAA) | 75 | 323 | 7.1 % | 22.3% | .129 | .346 | .281 | .337 | .410 | .331 | 103 |
The three year trend line is headed straight down in OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+. As the competition he’s faced has improved, the concerns about plate discipline and pitchers exploiting his aggressiveness have come to pass. Since peaking in High-A in 2009 his results have gone down annually when you look at his advanced numbers. This is not one bad season, its a manifestation of an underlying trend that’s becoming more evident as the sample gets larger. If anything, Jesus has been lucky with the bat this year. His .346 BABIP is higher than it was in AA or last year in AAA, though it has to be noted that 09 was a split season between two levels and it’s very tough to come up with a reliable xBABIP for a player in the minor leagues.
Another disturbing trend is his exploding strikeout rate. He appeared to be improving in that area in his initial promotion to AA, but his K% has almost DOUBLED in the past two seasons. That’s not an accident, pitchers have found holes in his swing and have exploited them mercilessly. These are minor league pitchers with minor league stuff and minor league scouting reports. There’s no publicly available Pitch Type Value numbers, spray charts, Inside Edge hot/cold zones. We can only imagine what big league pitchers with their experience, ability and the resources available to them would do to Mr Montero. A 22.3 K% would be even higher at the big league level, and looking at the MLB leaders guys like that who don’t field their position well typically provide very little value to their team.
There’s another thing that bugs me about these trends. It’s not uncommon for players to rake in the lower levels and stub their toe somewhere along the way as they advance up the ladder. But there’s no evidence of an adjustment having been made, where he rebounds and proves he can counter what pitchers are doing to him. Even the strong 2nd half he had in 2010 was more of a correction from the abysmal first half he had that year, and it has to be noted that most of the better pitchers with MLB ability in AAA get promoted by mid-season, so I’m always dubious of strong 2nd halves by hitters, particularly in AAA. Coupling this lack of progress with multiple attitude-related incidents, and you begin to wonder if the young Mr Montero respects the game, and its ability to humble even great talents like him, as much as he should. If he is traded, maybe that gets his attention and he will become the player we all thought he’d be. Maybe all the time and effort of making him a Catcher is the problem, and a team that moves him to 1B will unlock the potential in that potent bat of his. But in either case, those things won’t happen while he remains with the Yankees. His stock has taken a big hit already, and it may be time to sell before it goes down any further.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
58 Responses to Jesus Montero’s Declining Stock
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
yeah i completely disagree steve. how old is montero again? 20? this kid is the real deal and while i wouldn’t hesistate to trade him for a front line starter thats in his prime, anything short of that would just be plain stupid. this is the best hitting prospect weve had since jeter and you dont give up on him now because his stock happens to be lower than it was before the year started. watch him get hot and everyone will start to drool over him again. hes got special hitting talent period!
I don’t disagree he has special talent, you don’t get ranked as highly as him without great ability. But that doesn’t necessarily translate on the MLB level unless he finds ways to make adjustments, and his numbers don’t indicate that he has. Some top prospects fail, or never live up to the hype. He’s showing signs that he may be another in that category, and a fair minded reader would have to be concerned by the trends I mentioned.
What evidence do you have to support your claim that Montero isn’t faltering? Calling him the real deal doesn’t make it so. He strikes out a ton and his slg% is going down. Besides his age he’s 21), what do you see in him that would counter his falling performance?
To me, he’s a DH and a backup catcher. I love a good hitter, but respect a smart one better than raw power. Unless AJ starts bouncing while he’s rolling, I can’t see the Yanks beating true pitching horsepower in this year’s playoffs, even with another formerly good pitcher. I would look to trade Mr. Can’t Miss for an equally exciting pitching prospect. How’s that for a wet blanket?
Don’t take me wrong: I haven’t given up on the Yanks playing really well, and hoping that Bartolo’s, especially, and Garcia’s miracles keep happening. Heck, Bartolo truly has pitched like a strong #2, and he even could carry the playoffs. I’m only advocating the Yanks keep their powder dry, and keep developing great prospects, and not throw them away and overpay.
This article was well written. Well conceived. Poorly researched. If your going to say trade him based on His stats decreasing each year in the minors fine. Than compare his stats to players he was compared to in minors and show the results. But You just can’t say due to his increase in strikeouts and decrease in slugging he would be even further exploited at major league level and he would have no value. He’s 21 bro. He has the ability. Its all there. The only reason I consider trading him and I am and would be okay with trading him is because He has no position. That’s the real reason. But if I trade him I am getting a player back in his prime no older than 27-28 signed for a few years. This kid will be a first baseman on some team putting up better offensive numbers than texiera hitting .290-.300 with 30 hrs and 100rbis playing avg at best defense.
Than compare his stats to players he was compared to in minors and show the results. But You just can’t say due to his increase in strikeouts and decrease in slugging he would be even further exploited at major league level and he would have no value.
Looking at players with different skill sets and cherry picking the numbers we like will only serve to muddy the waters. If you’re familiar with wOBA and RC+, those are comprehensive ratings that take many areas of offensive production into account. If he was producing, it would show up there. I see no point in comparing him to other players when we can analyze Montero himself.
I agree that he has no position on the team long term, and that’s why I have long had no trouble including him in the right deal. Your last statement about him putting up better numbers than Tex is just silly. One’s a proven, borderline HOF player and the other has yet to have a cup of coffee in MLB. You assume production that has not only yet to materialize, but is trending the other way. I wrote this piece specifically to challenge those types of assumptions.
This is exactly the problem with prospects. You already have him hitting better than a possible hall of fame player in Teixeira. Doesn’t that seem like a stretch at this point? Especially considering Texeira can hit 40 home runs.
Montero isn’t Miguel Cabrera, he isn’t Frank Thomas, and he isn’t Manny Ramirez so comparing him to those guys as minor league players is irrelevant. What isn’t irrelevant is that he doesn’t understand the strikezone, and he is a very free swinger. He has a somewhat similar approach at the plate as Cano, yet he doesn’t have the ability to make contact in the same way Cano does. This has to be a concern, to dismiss it because “he’ll hit better than Teixeira, he’s 21″. Is simply silly.
As Yankee fans we don’t develop as many prospects as we would want, but when we get them we have to temper our expectations. It seems almost everybody expects Banuelos, and Betances to be top 2 pitchers in a rotation, and Montero is going to be an All-Star every year. Even if it happens, it still isn’t the most likely outcome.
It’s important to understand that talent doesn’t mean you are a great ball player, that has been proved continually over the years.
It seems like now we have gotten to the point of downgrading other players in order to justify not trading our prospects. I have hear countless comparisons of Jnimenez as “just another Burnett”, yet all the numbers prove Jimenez is better than Burnett has ever been.
It seems almost everybody expects Banuelos, and Betances to be top 2 pitchers in a rotation, and Montero is going to be an All-Star every year. Even if it happens, it still isn’t the most likely outcome.
Bingo. If you want to really look smart, bet against top flight prospects becoming “elite” performers at the MLB level. Even BA and BP would be the first to tell you that a top 10 prospect only has a high probability of being an average to above average MLB performer, and even top 10 guys have a bust rate around 10%. Many top MLB players were never even rated highly, Cano is a good example. To be elite is something truly special, and there will be 20 “next Manny Ramirez” before ONE actually performs like Manny.
Good piece Steve. I still have plenty of faith in Montero, I’m not going to dismiss him based on a half season, or even one full season. But you certainly make a very valid point, and a bring a view point many refuse to. Too many people tend to only look at prospects like Montero in the very best light, and treat their ceiling like their bare minimum production level. I think a lot of the problems came with the off the cuff comparisons to Cabrera, Manny, and F. Thomas. They were really kind of irresponsible comparisons as I don’t think Montero posses the future of any of those bats. I think he is much more likely to be a Carlos Lee type of player than any of those 3 hall of fame talents.
I was looking at Montero’s splits the other day, and I was surprised to see how dramatic they are. He is hitting lefties (.295/.345/.513), but he seems to be getting completely over matched by right handed pitchers, only hitting .273/.333/.368 against righties. Someone of his talent levels really shouldn’t be slugging .368, and to dismiss that because of “boredom” as I have seen many do seems irrational. I have a problem with the whole bored idea really. Because if he is bored, and basically so upset he isn’t in the major that he doesn’t care about hitting well, we have bigger problems with his attitude than we know.
I’ve also noticed a backlash on anyone who brings up the problems with Montero. They seem to be immediately met by accusations of giving up on a guy for no season, being a spoiled Yankee fan, and threat of “you’ll be sorry” when he rakes on another team. Nobody wants Montero no to succeed, and no one dismisses his talents, but he certainly does have very real holes in his game that must be corrected before he can start to reach his potential.
One thing I would like to know is what are the dimensions of Scranton’s home park? Because in 103 ABs at home he is batting .233/.282./291, while in 195 ABs on the road he is batting .303./.364/.467. I really know very little about the park that the Scranton Yankees play in, or why he would have such pronounced splits at home vs on the road.
I’m not familiar with the reputation the SWB park has, but I’m not sure the Home/Road thing matters much anyway. I know for a fact that High A is a pitchers league and Tampa is known as a pitchers park, and he destroyed that place. His power should play anywhere, and even if he lost a few HRs that still doesn’t explain his plummeting OBP and soaring K%.
Certainly home road splits aren’t the difference in him tearing up triple A and not, it’s only 100 ABs in a career. but with a split that dramatic I would be interested in knowing why.
K rate is the most interesting part to me. His walk rate this year is right around his career mark (outside of last years 9%), but starting with his promotion to Scranton last year his K’s have skyrocketed. That has to be a concern to the Yankee brass, especially when that number should go up again at the major league level. The report on him always was that he was a free swinger, but that he made good enough contact to keep the strikeouts in check. He’s going to have to make an adjustment of some kind, either walking more or striking out less. Otherwise his projections have to change somewhat, because I doubt he is a .300 major league hitter with his current K/BB ratio.
Sorry Chris and Steve,
You misinterpreted what I said when I said Montero will be hitting .300 with 30 HR’s and 100RBI’s playing avg at best first base and putting up better numbers than Texiera. I said it with the idea that he will be on another team in a few years putting up these numbers and Texiera will be a little older on his decline. I am not hating on Texiera but i am speaking about a young player who all scouts gushed over the last few years and some say he has the same bat as a Frank Thomas or Miguel cabrera in the minor leagues which we all know may not portend to a similar major league career as those two mentioned players but it would suck if it did and he was on another team.
You tell everyone to take it easy on prospects and you gush over guys like Ubaldo Jimenez and refute anyone who argues that he is a NL pitcher with an above 4.00 era and has been wildly inconsistent over the last two seasons, as well as the fact that many Baseball people do not think he will be a number one guy for long and is closer to an arm injury than being mentioned as the top five best pitchers in the game.
So maybe the people who protect the prospects should cool down but so should the writers on this blog who are so willing to knock them for a down year.
They are kids still learning the game with big talent!
There is no guarantee that in a few years Montero will be better than even a declining Teixeira. That’s the point, you have almost guaranteed no outcome for the kid but .300, 30, and 100 because a couple scouts have mentioned these numbers. He isn’t a lock to be that kind of player, in fact he isn’t a lock to do anything.
Ubaldo Jimenez is a major league proven starter, not a prospect. All his peripheral numbers show he isn’t an NL pitcher with a 4+ ERA, his career numbers prove he isn’t an NL pitcher with a 4+ ERA. You are also the only one who keeps bringing up this arm injury, no one else that I know of talks about this. It may have been brought up on the MLB network, that doesn’t make it so. There is nothing to suggest he is an arm injury waiting to happen, and anyone saying differently is simply guessing he is. He has not had any problems ala Josh Johnson, and CC is just as likely to have arm problems as Ubaldo is. Jimenez has been somewhat inconsistent when you look at his home numbers, but he has been one of the best road pitchers in baseball for 2 years, and he has been nothing but stellar since June first. I think there is plenty of proof that he is an ace right now at 27, and the comparisons to Burnett are simply not accurate.
I really wish no one had ever mentioned Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera. He may have similar swing mechanics to Frank, but at the end of the day that doesn’t mean much at all. it’s a disservice to keep bringing up names like this, as it makes people expect, and treat Montero to be these guys. Miguel Cabrera is probably the best right handed bat in baseball, and I really don’t expect him to come close to that kind of career.
This is my point about the backlash. No one is “knocking” Montero, we are simply pointing out legit problems with his approach, and in his production which most fans simply want to ignore. We are also pointing out that most prospects never reach their ceiling, and if you can get the right deal you should be willing to trade those players. No one is saying he won’t go on to have a great career, the point is be realistic, and stop making that the most likley outcome by saying he will be hitting .300, 30, 100.
To the point the chances Betances or Banuelos become as good a pitch as Ubaldo is slim, yet listen to most fans and you would assume that’s their floor. We have gotten to a point where looking at a prospect as anything other than the “next big thing” has become blasphemy. Most prospects fail, that’s what they do. Not all will, but you can’t treat them all like you have the secret.
I’ll try to dig the post up, but I actually remember reading that top 10 hitting prospects tend not to fail, at least not in terms of being a bust, and tend to provide value. I’ll find it.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Damn, those numbers are worse than I thought.
Position Players 1-10
Bust 37.4%
Success 62.7%
Superior 39.6%
I thought I recently read that Victor Wang had a 10% bust rate for BA top 10 positional players. “Success”needs to be clarified as well. 2.5-4.5 win players are what the Yanks are looking for, and of those top 20 players only 30% of them achieve that.
I would also contend that people aren’t saying don’t trade Montero because he “won’t be a bust”, they are saying don’t trade him because they all have him penciled for .300, 30, and 100 yearly. There is a long way to go from “not being a bust”, to those kind of numbers.
I have said it before. I think Montero’s true projection is something along the lines of Carlos Lee, not Miguel Cabrera. I think if this name had been used before Cabrera, Thomas, and Manny fans would be much more inclined to talk about his trade potential than they are. Lee has had a good career, but he doesn’t evoke the same kind of thoughts as Cabrera, etc… Which is why I assume people used those names in the first place.
Those are very good numbers for guys who have yet to hit the field and are being ranked based on potential.
The Yanks aren’t the Padres, looking for cheap cost controlled talent. They’re looking for high production, so the odds are against getting that from a top 10 prospect by almost a 2-1 margin.
I will say the “success window” is pretty vague, since it goes from players being 1.50 WAR or better. I think for the level of hype Montero is getting 1.5-2.49 is probably as close to fail as you can get without being a bust. If he gets traded and puts up those kinds of numbers no one is going to rue the day way dealt him, as some have suggested.
“About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)”
Banuelos and Betances fall into this category. Given these numbers I would actually be much more inclined to trade them in a deal for Jimenez.
24 years old- 3.99 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 4.3 WAR
25 years old- 3.47 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 5.7 WAR
26 years old- 2.88 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 6.3 WAR
27 years old- 4.00 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
These do not seem like the numbers of an “NL only pitcher with a 4+ ERA”. In fact these seems like a player continually getting better from age 24-26, and getting injured in spring training this year having a set back. For you to in one breath say Montero is young, he will only get better, and in the other pretend that at 27 Ubaldo is going to go down is hypocritical at best.
Ubaldo was hurt early on in the season (nothing to do with his arm), and wasn’t really able to get going until he came off the DL in June. Besides that he has also shown to be unlucky this year with a 68.8 % LOB%, which is one reason his FIP/xFIP is 3.52/3.51 and his ERA is exactly 4.00. He has also been building up his arm strength since then, and after his last start his velocity is up to 94.0 MPH already.
Love Montero if you choose, but don’t let that blind you to the abilities of Ubaldo Jimenez, and dismiss him as some NL pitcher a 4+ ERA. This is simply not the case.
Also who are these “many baseball who think he won’t be a number 1 for long”? I have seen very few people saying anything of the sort, and the ones I have seen argue it are New York radio or New York Yankee blogs. I have seen of no scouts doubting Ubaldo’s abilities, and honestly I would question anyone who did. As a 27 year old who has put up these kind of career numbers in the major leagues, he really should only get better. Despite what Mark Feinsand says.
Saying the numbers declined from AA to AAA doesn’t really mean much, as you’d expect that from level to level, particularly at his age. He’s had a rough year, but the assertion that he doesn’t respect the game or that he’s been in decline for 3 years when context is ignored entirely, seems off to me.
Just to elaborate, he was one of the top hitters in AAA last year at age 20. To term that a decline from the previous season seems entirely without context.
I didn’t assert that he doesn’t respect the game enough, I just wondered whether or not he does. He’s had two benchings for lack of effort, so it’s not without basis.
Your argument seems to be the “He’s 21″ one, where anything negative gets excused away due to his age. I understand that many other prospects might be in college at his age, but the numbers are what they are, and its not just this year. It’s a 3 season trend where OBP, SLG and K% are all going the wrong way. That would bug me whether he was in college or the minors.
I’m not comfortable combining A+ and AA (since the level of competition is different) but even if you combine his 09 numbers, the trend doesn’t change. Good prospects often get exposed as they climb the ladder, and I found it interesting how steadily his numbers have declined step by step. That was the entire point of this post, and I’ve yet to hear anyone address that directly.
He’s had 2 benchings for lack of effort this year, he was also benched last year for lack of hustle at least once as well. It’s not a pattern yet, but I think the question is valid.
One of the reasons Boston ended up trading Hanley Ramirez for Beckett was that he made a lot of people mad on his way through the system. I am talking about other prospects such as Lester, and Pedroia, who regarded him as arrogant and lazy to some degree. Obviously Hanley has had some tremendous success, but he has also carried this lackadaisical attitude with him to the major leagues as well.
I don’t necessarily agree with the trending numbers argument Steve is providing, since his final numbers last year were impressive, but I believe the overall point he helps to make is valid.
My argument isn’t that he’s 21. My argument is that as players climb the ladder and really crappy guys get weeded out, there are fewer outlier numbers, such that I suspect most guys will see their statistics decline somewhat.
And as I said, if you look at him in the context of his leagues, he’s done quite well the past two years. You keep pointing to the pure numbers, but we all know that evaluating prospects has little to do with that. He has undeniably had a poor season, but to suggest that he was in decline before that, again without considering context and just continually pointing to numbers, is not productive or particularly accurate.
I particularly don’t get your dismissal of his age, because the numbers “are what they are.” The numbers showed him to be one of the best hitters in AAA last year at 20, and the scouts agreed. You can call that a decline, but there’s a reason you’d likely be alone in that regard.
He’s had a poor year, and that is undeniable, and his stock is clearly down. I just don’t think your assertion of a trend holds up.
Technically he was only one of the best hitters in AAA for the second half of the season last year, and if you were to look at his numbers for the last year and a half broken down, he has been poor in 2/3 of that time period. When looking at last years numbers as a whole they are tremendous and can’t be overlooked, but he did have a worst first half last year than he has thus far. You can certainly look at that and see that as positive, but you can certainly look at it and see it as negative. If he goes on another second half run like he did last season, then things take on a different light. But if he stays in the same general range all year, 3/4 of the past 2 seasons would’ve been pretty terrible.
I’m not sure why we’d break seasons down like that. Are you doing it for all the players at AAA who he might be compared to? He had a very good overall year at AAA last year. He’s taken a step back. But one season does not a trend make.
I would have no problem breaking down players by front to back season comparisons, though it’s hard to find minor league breakdowns that way. People seem more than willing to completely discount Ubaldo Jimenez’s career because he had an inconsistent second half of the season last year. I would think minor league first and second half splits mean more because of players promoting as the year goes on. It’s not the end all be all, and he did have great overall numbers last year. But I would think having one great half of baseball in 2 years would be note worthy.
Right or not, if his good half last year had been in the first half I do think people would make a bigger deal of the splits, and perceived continued decline.
Even the first half last year, league average offense in AAA at age 20 while playing catcher every day is fairly solid. He wasn’t bad, he was actually relatively good. Just not transcendent.
He was slugging under .400, that would be relatively good for someone who is a catcher. We all know however that he shouldn’t be compared to real catchers, since his defensive will be a negative. His value is his bat, I don’t think it is unfair to criticize him on his offensive production, when that is the only real value he provides.
I still love Montero’s potential. I just think the idea that he is untouchable, or he’s bored, or he shouldn’t receive criticism because he is 21 and will be a .300 hitter with 30 HRs is silly. There is no reason to call him bust, but there also is no reason to blindly defend him as seems to be the trend at this point.
There is a difference in criticism, and hating.
To paraphrase Casey Stengel’s prescient take on another promising catching prospect: Montero’s 21 and in ten years he has a chance to be 31.
Period.
Chris and Steve.
I think what moshe and some of us on this blog are pointing out to you Is don’t be blinded by pure stats regarding montero. I agree his value as a catcher I’d a negative but his bat at his age is a big positive and the potential for better numbers is clearly there. That’s what you look at with prospects potential.
Ubaldo is a very good pitcher bit understand most everyone I heard from be it inside people commenting or beat writers or MLB network clowns all say price is way to steep and yes some have commented about ubaldo attitude his funky delivery and the concern regarding the delivery and injury. That was brought up when he was struggling to hit 92 on a consistent basis.
So yes I make the trade of montero is centerpiece of trade without betances and banuellos. Otherwise I pass.
Its evident your willing to throw one of them in and you appear to be in minority of those thinkers.
Imagine for one second we do give up a haul of prospects for this guy and don’t win nothing over next few years. How will Yankee land react when young players are pitching and hitting for other teams and we are an old stagnant team? Look at how fans react over trading for nasty and marte and we won a world series.. …..
I’ve never made my opinions, or changed them for that matter because I was in the minority. Many great decisions have been made that people were against, and many deals praised by the masses went to badly.
Trading for a 27 year old isn’t going to make us an old stagnent team, just like relying on Montero, Banuelos, and Betances isn’t going to prevent us from that. The likely outcome is that only 1 of the 3 lives up to his potential, and even then it’s unlikely that player fully reaches a superstar status.
It’s just as likely we look up in 4-5 years and Montero is an average hitting, below average defensive firstbaseman, Betances is a reliever, and Banuelos is a middle of the rotation pitcher. Then the same people who would be mad we traded for Ubaldo, would be mad we didn’t. There is a reason you don’t make trades with “what will Yankee land think” in mind.
Chris, at no point did I say he doesn’t deserve criticism or that he’s untouchable. I’ve stated before that Id give him up for Ubaldo. Im just arguing against the premise of this particular post.
How bout Garza?
I understand. It was really less an argument against, and more just against the vast amount of people who seem to be unwilling to trade him for almost anyone.
The curious case of ubaldo Jimenez. Getting beat pretty good right now against weak hitting Arizona. Getting hit hard. MLB saying he has stiff delivery and loss of velocity. Do you still want to trade our overhyped prospects for Jimenez? Is it worth risk when even with him in my opinion we are still not best team in baseball?
I’m actually watching the Rockies game, and he didn’t get hit nearly as bad as that final line. Trying to use that as your case against him is really weak as well. 1 game shouldn’t make, or change someones mind. He’s thrown a no hitter too, have I ever used that as an argument for trading for him? No, because it’s one game.
Yes, yes I do still want to trade for him. Whether you think it makes us the best or not. He would give us one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball for years to come, and we automatically upgrade to at least the 2nd best team in the AL.
He hit 96 several times in that game, he’s not up to where he was last year but he is clearly on the verge of getting his velocity back.
Two of those runs came off of awful defensive play, including a ball that should’ve been caught at the wall that Seth Smith played into a triple. As well as a Herrera making a terrible throw with the infield drawn in, costing him a second run.
The two real hard hits both came off the bat of Justin Upton, and he is anything but weak hitting.
His control was off after the 3rd, but he mixed his pitches well, and his splitter was as dirty as any pitch I’ve seen this year.
His delivery scares me. Wouldn’t surprise me with that delivery if he finishes his career as reliever.
This is borderline trolling. There is nothing to indicate he will ends his career as anything other than a good starting pitcher, to say he is going to become a reliever is ridiculous. I don’t know if you are serious, or if this is just throwing stuff at a wall and hoping it sticks.
Don’t like him if you want, but saying stuff like that is ridiculous.
I’ve actually seen scouts break his delivery down, and say that even though it looks different there is nothing mechanically wrong with it.
Here you go billyball, regarding your earlier claims of Ubaldo’s inconsistency.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-ubaldo-jimenez-inconsistent/
Here you go Chris borderline trolling. I pretty much did what you have done to the three top Yankee prospects except I also added in what baseball people have said about ubaldo. I know you refute MLB network. Peter blowhard Hammond and mark feinsand but I’m now telling you I read from unnamed scouts that there is a concern with Jimenez delivery mechanics and His inconsistent fastball. I’m not making it up but you seem to take umbrage with this information yet your opinion on the prospects are all based on stats. Manny banuelos is still throwing 92-94. Betanxes still hits 95 on speed gun and montero still has opposite field power. All potential.
Like I said I trade montero as centerpiece for Jimenez and leave out other two prospects
you can defend tour position and ill defend mine but it seems not only are beat writers and scouts saying the asking price is way too high but the GM is saying it as well.
I’m referring to the statement “Wouldn’t surprise me with that delivery if he finishes his career as reliever.”.
Find me one article, one scout bringing up a future as a reliever and I will apologize, otherwise it does sound completely made up.
I have said several times I don’t care if you hate the guy, but saying things like he’ll end up in the pen, or he got beat by the Diamondbacks do you still want to trade for him I take exception too.
I have never heard one person bring up a concern about him going to the pen, and I read scouts saying his delivery has nothing wrong with it mechanically.
Saying that a prospect with no history past 5 walks per 9 in double A could end up in the pen, and Ubaldo is likely headed to the pen are two completely different things. I find it hard to believe you don’t understand this.
Banuelos hitting 92-94, and Betances hitting 95 is fine, but plenty of guys throw that hard and never make it. If you don’t want to trade them that’s fine, but don’t say things like you expect Ubaldo to end up in the pen. Plenty of GMs got burned holing onto potential.
We actually don’t know how Brian feels at all. He may love Ubaldo, he may hate Ubaldo, we may also never know. If we wake up on the morning of the trade deadline and he trades Montero + Banuelos for him we will, if not he decided against it.
Potential is fine, and I have said many times that Betances and Banuelos have great ceilings. However I find it hard to believe that they will both reach those ceilings, and they both have more than one issue that could hold them back from that.
Stats aren’t everything with minor leaguers, this is true. But if you choose to ignore the extreme control problems they are having just because they are young, I think it’s a mistake.
If Boston had two prospects that were posting lines of
84.1 IP, 10.14 K/9, 5.12 BB/9, 3.20 ERA, 4.02 FIP
and
89 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.96 BB/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.93 FIP in double A would you be calling them future stars?
I’m simply pointing out that just because they are Yankee prospects, we don’t have to go overboard on the hype train. In fact if all 3 have any significant role on the Yankees, that would be a minor miracle in itself.
once again I’m not hating on them, and I’m not trying to make anyone feel bad because I am staying grounded on pitchers in double A. I’m simply trying to point out that these two guys aren’t Felix Hernandez and Johan Santana.
Noone said they were king Felix and Johan santana but understand that if ubaldo was king Felix you would trade all three pieces but ubaldo isn’t. And the fact that his above 4.00 era in nat league doesn’t concern you but monteros increased k rate does baffles me.
You have made the connection between Betances and Felix yourself.
Are you seriously going off of only ERA? Not only are there more important stats, I have pointed them out in a legit argument you never touched.
24 years old- 3.99 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 4.3 WAR
25 years old- 3.47 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 5.7 WAR
26 years old- 2.88 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 6.3 WAR
27 years old- 4.00 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
That is massive 4 year sample size, and Ubaldo’s FIP and xFIP are still in range with what he has done in the past.
He didn’t build up his arm strength in spring training, he only came off the DL June first, and he has shown his numbers and velocity are becoming back in range with the rest of his career.
To judge him off of half a season, when he has been steadily improving since he was 24 is silly.
Ubaldo has proven his ability to pitch, and pitch with the best in baseball at the major league level. Sure having a high ERA this year is somewhat concerning, but when every other number is in line with the dominance of the past, and there is no arm injury behind it it alleviates that a lot.
Montero is showing an alarming lack of patience, and lack of understanding of the strikezone in triple A. If he had 3 years of major league experience telling me he was proven, I wouldn’t worry about one season so much. Context is very important here.
I can’t make you like Ubaldo, and frankly I don’t need to. I simply am saying you are being very critical of a proven major league pitcher, and very lenient of three unproven prospects. That doesn’t strike you as odd?
Ubaldo isn’t King Felix this is true, he also isn’t Justin Verlander. But he is in the small group right below that small group (that includes a few others). But to act as if he isn’t close, or that he is some middle of the rotation starter, or worse yet destined for the pen is ludicrous.
I would offer the Rockies the choice of two packages.
Banuelos, Montero, and Betances alone.
Or
Banuelos, Montero, Nova, and Noesi/Warren/Phelps
If they wanted neither I would move on, but I don’t think you are killing yourself to offer either. I fully believe he is 4-6 WAR pitcher yearly, and if you believe that then you have to try to offer one of these packages. You obviously don’t, and I’m fine with that. I’m not fine however, with saying he is bullpen bound, or he is some 4 ERA NL pitcher, when the numbers say he isn’t.
I wonder if you took a gander at replacement Yankee blog. They disagree with your premise regarding montero as well. Did you forget that ubaldo had a very inconsistent yr last season as well? For a guy who loves trends look at ubaldo last two months last yr and first half this yr. Noone saying he’s not the ace of the Rockies staff. Noone saying He’s not a top ten pitcher in national league. But how would he be in American league when pitching around hitters to get to pitchers doesn’t exist? If His era is above four in national league what would it be in American league? Would these stats qualify him to even be the Yanks number two starter? If you refuse to admit the national league reduces a pitcher era some instances to one run less than we can look at career stats of pitchers Who pitched in both leagues. Some national league pitchers hate the American league because there is no break in lineup. Even with shitty teams.
Why do you keep bringing up his ERA this season? How many times do I have to address the same thing.
Just read this article. It shows how despite this notion that Ubaldo is inconsistent, he has actually been one of the most consistent starters in baseball for the past few years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-ubaldo-jimenez-inconsistent/
Of course there is a difference in the AL and the NL, but his career numbers say he isn’t a 4 ERA pitcher. In fact just last year he was below 3, of course his second half wasn’t going to be as good because it was a regression on his sub 2 ERA he posted for the entire first half. No one can keep up the pace he was on, it was simply an expected regression.
His numbers at the beginning of the year aren’t some continuation of last season, he was hurt. He wasn’t able to build up his velocity in spring training, and he was pitching anyway. I would expect his numbers to be down. Since He came off the DL on June first however he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the league hits .158 against him on the road this season.
——————–
If you refuse to read it I’ll post part of it.
“For comparison, I took the three pitchers on either side of him in WAR since the start of 2010 – a pretty impressive group consisting of Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, C.J. Wilson, and Cole Hamels. How did those guys compare in terms of variation in game score over the last year and a half? Check out the results below.
Hernandez: 17.13
Kershaw: 16.30
Haren: 22.63 (!)
Lincecum: 17.75
Wilson: 14.40
Hamels: 16.37
Of the pitchers who WAR judges to be similarly valuable since the start of 2010, three have been more consistent than Jimenez and three have been less consistent. In reality, though, there is one guy who stands out at each end of the spectrum (Wilson on one side, Haren on the other), with the other five all being pretty similar. It’d be hard to argue that the differences in standard deviation of Game Score for Felix, Kershaw, Lincecum, Hamels, or Jimenez were all that significant.
In fact, most pitchers settle into that 16-18 range. By deviation in Game Score, Jimenez appears to be perfectly normal. The narrative just doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
On a year to year basis, Jimenez has been pretty darn consistent. From game to game within those years, he’s been about as consistent as his peers. His velocity has certainly taken a tumble this year, but the idea that it’s made him a demonstrably worse pitcher isn’t really accurate.
It seems like most of the perception of Jimenez’s inconsistency comes from his crazy low run suppression in the first half of last season, when he had a 1.15 ERA through his first 14 starts. Naturally, he couldn’t keep that up, but we shouldn’t confuse regression to the mean with an inherent lack of consistency on Jimenez’s part. ERA just wasn’t doing a very good job of measuring Jimenez’s true talent level, and given a larger sample size, his good fortune ran out. It happens, but it doesn’t make Jimenez inconsistent, and it certainly doesn’t make him A.J. Burnett. ”
———————————————
In other words he would certainly be our number 2 best starter.
If ubaldo were a Yankee he would be competing with AJ Burnett for third spot based on how Bartolo has pitched this year which is not far from the truth
So you didn’t read it.
I’m sorry man you clearly don’t want to debate the issue. I have provided you with information on multiple levels, you seem much more interested in making blanket statements with nothing to back up anything.
If you don’t actually want to have an open mind I don’t want to continue doing this. I would be more than glad to discuss any information you actually bring, but simply saying he would be the 3rd or 4th pitcher, and he is going to end up in the pen isn’t that.
Chris
I certainly enjoy a good debate. But you took what I said and twisted it twice. The first time with texirra when I clearly meant in time his value will decrease as he gets older and montero has potential to b a star with bat and below avg defensively. You refute that saying montero is on a downward spiral and go on to say not only has he lost value but based on his stats he may not be valuable at all with his high strikeout rate. I than say ubaldo with His awkward delivery may eventually wind up as a reliever. I clearly did not mean this yr next yr or in five years.
Ironicai did read that article and it was noted that Jimenez has had sharp loss in velocity. I would loveeree to have Jimenez but not for what your willing to trade and most Yankee fans would agree with me. I saw that you were willing to trade montero betances and banuelos and I started wondering if you really understand building up from below. I too believe that not every prospect is gonna succeeded but you try and retain the ones that have best chance and you want to trade all three!
Lastly I stated that Jimenez is a top ten pitcher in national league but I only trade that haul for a king Felix. If that trade doesn’t work do you realize the irreparable damage created? And please stop concentrating so much on stats do You think the scouts that watch these prospects only look at stats? These are young kids bro.
For their part, the Yankees are worried “about Ubaldo’s inconsistency, all-out delivery, and coming to AL East,” tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yankees have the talent to pull off a deal, but it remains to be seen if the two teams can find common ground.
[...] peaking of analysts, The Yankee Analysts collectively wonder what has become of their former top prospect, Jesus Montero. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog wonder what has become of the analysts of The Yankee [...]