Want to see more of this? Me neither.
The Yankees have an opening in their starting rotation now that Bartolo Colon is on the 15-day DL. Colon’s turn in the rotation next comes on Thursday. During the press conference after Sunday’s game Joe Girardi said that he would make a decision about Bartolo’s replacement when the time came.
Hector Noesi is the most likely candidate to be given an audition, but nothing is set in stone. In this environment it is only a matter of time before there are calls for the Yankees to give Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances an opportunity to pitch for the open starter’s job. That would be a terrible idea.
It’s not that Banuelos and Betances haven’t pitched well enough to merit a shot at the big leagues. Quite the opposite, in fact, each one has pitched well so far. Banuelos has a 2.84 ERA, a 3.83 FIP and a 1.456 WHIP in 50.2 innings of work according to Fangraphs and 56.1 innings of work according to Baseball Reference in AA Trenton this year (I have no idea why they disagree). Betances, meanwhile, has been even better. Also in AA Trenton, he’s pitching to a 1.75 ERA, a 3.22 FIP and a 1.110 WHIP in 51.1 innings of work (both sites agree this time). The two pitchers are showing incredible promise for the time when they eventually break into the Bronx, they just aren’t strong enough yet.
According to Baseball Reference, Manny Banuelos has never pitched more than 109.0 innings in a standard minor league season (I’m using B-Ref for this because it separates regular season data from winter ball better than Fangraphs). Last season he pitched only 64.2 innings of work. Betances, meanwhile, hasn’t gone much further. His max was 121.2 innings, which he accumulated in 2008. Last season he pitched only 85.1 innings. Neither pitcher has come anywhere near the total workload a playoff bound team (which the 2011 Yankees probably are) requires in the majors. Putting that kind of pressure on their young arms risks injuring them.
The different professional experiences of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ivan Nova offer strong evidence that the surest way to develop a young starting pitcher is to give him enough work in the minors to be able to call him up to the majors and not constrain him with innings limits or other restrictions. The Yankees did not do this with Hughes or Chamberlain. While only medical professionals are qualified to argue whether or not this contributed to their spate of injuries, anyone who follows the team knows that both pitchers were called upon at young ages, neither responded well to the innings limits put upon them and both have accumulated impressive medical dossiers.
In contrast, Ivan Nova was never a superstar Yankee prospect. The team never felt that it was desperately in need of his services. As a result, he was allowed to accumulate quite a few innings in the minors. Nova’s Fangraphs page paints a picture of a young pitcher whose workload increased gradually. He tossed 43.0 innings in 2006, 99.1 innings in 2007, 148.2 innings in 2008, 139.1 innings in 2009, and had tossed 145.0 innings in the minors in 2010 before the Yankees asked him to pitch 42.0 innings in the big leagues (for a total of 187.0 in all of 2010).
Nova’s work load has increased incrementally each year. While it is fair to argue that he is not as talented as Hughes, Chamberlain, or either of the Killer B’s, and therefore wasn’t as important to the team, the fact remains that he doesn’t appear to be at risk of getting injured this season either. ESPN currently projects Nova to pitch 175 innings this season. That would be less than his total last season. The Yankees could call upon him for that, and still have ample room to use him as needed out of the bullpen for the playoffs, or as a starter if better options are not available. Other pitchers may be more valuable options than Nova (whose 97 ERA+ is acceptable from a 5th starter) but only if they are healthy enough to pitch, which he is.
Unless the phrases “Banuelos rules” or ”Betances rules” appeal to you, the best option for these two is to remain in the minor leagues until they’ve accumulated enough innings for the Yankees to be able to call them up and pitch them without restrictions. That threshold is probably something in the ballpark of 150 innings, which, realistically, neither will reach until at least the end of this season and possibly the 2012 season. As frustrating as it may be to have to wait before we as fans can see what these two are made of, the Yankees have a terrible track record of developing starters, particularly starters they’ve rushed from the minors to the majors. If either of these two can turn into reliable, young, cost-controlled starters then it is worth it waiting for them to build up their strength in the minors, and not stressing their arms simply because the Bombers have an opening.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
21 Responses to Keep the Killer B’s in the minors
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Nova has been healthy too. That’s the main reason why he’s been allowed to accumulate innings.
I agree with your analysis. The Yanks should let Man Ban and D Bets progress through the minor league system and hope for an MLB arrival in late 2012 (Sept. call ups) and hopefully full time in 2013. Hopefully by 2013 they could pitch with no innings limits. And please, please, PLEASE no relief roles for them, with the exception of Sept. 2012 call-ups.
Agreed. If these guys can stay healthy they can accumulate 110 IP this year and 150-160 the following year. While a September call up would be reasonable I would not be opposed to a second half callup if their play warrants it. However, once September roles around their innings will be such that they could be used as super relief men such as David Price. Calling them up now would just be asking for trouble.
According to an article on Colon’s status in today’s NY Post, Colon could miss as little as two starts.
The guess is Colon has a grade/level one strain (the best strain to have.) It’s probably that because Colon was quoted talking like he’ll miss only two starts, unless he’s living in denial. He seems like an honest man who won’t rush himself back but you never know. The Yankees have to be careful he doesn’t talk his way into coming back sooner than he should. I know he’s psyched to be pitching again and for the Yankees no less but he needs to slow down.
I’d pass on calling up one of the “Killer Bs” simply because there’s plenty of guys ahead of them who could fill in for Colon like Noesi, Phelps, and Mitchell, maybe even Carlos Silva. I’d go with Noesi.
Hypothetically, the Yankees could start Noesi 6/16 vs.Texas then 6/21 at Cincinatti and wouldn’t have to start him or Colon until 7/2 if they skipped whichever guy with the off-days 6/23 and 6/27.
The risk with Colon is that he’s old, injury prone, and taxes his frame with extra-weight. Two starts sounds optimistic to me. Andy Pettitte was about the same age and in better shape and a similar injury kept him out for six weeks.
My position is that Colon is out until he’s back.
‘Not related to this entry, but significant for next year and beyond:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/sabathia_in_state_of_mind_T8DbokrcCqqTPHXahqV7RK
My guess (and only that) is Sabathia opts out merely as a formality and to appease the Players’ Union who would go nuts if he didn’t opt out. He asks for six or seven years – basically two or three more years than what he’s guaranteed now after this season at $25M per for $150M total for six years, $175M for seven, and the Yankees will give it to him. The Yankees would basically be giving him another $58M ($8M more 2012-15 then $50M 2016-17) or $73M ($25M more for 2018.)
Or they could simply tack on another two or three years to his current contract, give him $25M per in these extra years, and tack on another $2M per year 2012-15 so he makes $25M per in those years, too, if his contract could be reworked. Same thing. He still has a record contract for a pitcher by money.
Honestly, that is what I have been thinking. I can’t think of any team really making a run on CC except possibly the Sox who have a ton of money coming off the books. However, CC has been everything that the Yanks could have asked for on or off the field and knows how to pitch unlike others (cough AJ cough). While the last couple years of the contract will be risky at this point there is no other pitcher I would rather give a long term contract to maybe other than a guy like Hernandez or Hamels.
Colon’s contract is for a flat 900Gs guaranteed with no bonuses of any kind for innings pitched. He has no tangible motivation to rush back hastily or unnecessarily, so if he says he’ll be back in 15 days there’s no reason not to believe the man. If worse came to worst, CC could always go on four days rest for a few turns. The Killer Bs can stay put, safe and sound. Nothing left to see here.
There is no way the Yankees will pitch CC on short rest in mid-June when the team is in the Wild Card position already.
Obviously, Mike, I was neither recommending, suggesting nor projecting CC be called upon to pitch on short rest. Just saying Colon’ll be back by next weekend and this story is a non-issue predicated on your assumption there will somehow be some unspecified outcry for the untested baby Bombers to be plucked from their cradles. I don’t believe any remotely knowledgable fan — nor any sane member of the Yankee’s current hierarchy — would be so reckless, especially in light of the recent examples you rightly name.
That said, I don’t see why any of the Killer B’s couldn’t be brought up for a single turn in the rotation to get their feet wet, face some MLB-caliber batters and get cycled back to the farm to keep their next scheduled rotation assignments there. It wouldn’t add a single inning to their development plans and could conceivably prove to be beneficial both to their growth curve and the big club’s short-term needs.
To Mike but really I would like anyone’s thoughts.
This maybe a little off topic but not much. Obviously with Colon’s injury the Yankees are going to need to replace him. As has already been mentioned Noesi is a logical option. What about the trade market? In my opinion it’s very unlikely that the Yankees are going to keep all 3 Killer “B’s” in the fold long term. Other may and will probably disagree with that statement. But if you allow me if we assume my comment to be accurate and one of the Killer B’s will be trade bait I’m going to assume it would be Brackman. Who and what other piece if any might be needed to add to a package to get a solid #2 via the trade market… And who might that piece be that the Yankee would like to have?
I once heard on the YesNetwork someone refer to prospects a currency for the Yankees, if that’s the case and I believe it is isn’t it time to think about going shopping? Thoughts anyone!
There are a few different parts to your comment.
First, I agree, the Yankees are going to need to trade for a starter. While it is assumed Colon can come back healthy, he’s a 38 year old with injury history who taxes his frame with extra weight; we can’t assume he’s coming back.
At this point, however, the trade bait would have to be someone other than the Killer B’s. Betances and Banuelos are showing middle to front of the rotation promise right now in AAA. It is unlikely that Cashman would trade them for anything less than an established number 3 starter, and there just aren’t a lot of those floating around that I can think of. Once upon a time Brackman was a decent option, but he’s got a 6.75 ERA in Scranton right now. He’s hurt his trade value.
I’m not the best when it comes to forecasting trades. I open the forum to one of my colleagues who has better insights, but Liriano is the name that comes to my mind. At the beginning of the year when I thought neither Garcia nor Colon would pan out I’d advocated for either Edwin Jackson or Buehrle. Now that it is clear the Yankees need more than arm with a pulse, and an actual reliable starter for a playoff run, Liriano is the name that comes to my mind. He’s a free agent. He’s a left handed strikeout pitcher. He’s pitching for a team that is not in the playoff hunt. He’s having a down year.
If the Yankees feel he can be salvaged as a regular 3.85 or so ERA pitcher (say a 115 ERA+), perhaps they can convince the Twins to sell.
Liriano’s the name that keeps coming to mind for me as well. Although I think he still as the 2012 season as an arbitration year. But it seems clear the Twins aren’t locked into him or he into the Twins. At least that’s my opinion. And you can never discount a lefty in NY. Lefties and Yankee Stadium are like peanut butter and jelly they go together so well.
Thank you for responding.
Liriano just scares me because he has lost quite a bit off the fastball this year and has an erratic release as seen on Fangraphs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=3201&position=P&season=2011&date=0&dh=0
If the Yankees or trade for a pitcher it should be for someone that has a little more consistency and plug the middle of the rotation.
I agree 100 percent with you, YankeesJunkie. Even Liriano’s biggest fans are leery of him and rightly so. See the link below, and please let’s not have any more discussion of him.
http://www.nickstwinsblog.com/2011/02/liriano-and-work-ethic.html
Unless we can pick him up for a bag of balls and a tube of Ben-Gay like we did Bartolo and Freddy, let’s pass. Don’t we already have enough time bomb-ticking miracles of modern surgery in the rotation?
You can’t pick him up for nothing like Colon and Garcia, those guys were non roster invitee’s not trades. I wouldn’t give up Betances, Banuelos, Sanchez, or Montero for him. But Nova and the like are fair game.
Uh, yeah right T.O. I understand that, but thanks for making my point again for me. The risk reward on him isn’t worth what he would cost us. Sorry if my post didn’t make that crystal clear.
Mike you said Manny and Dellin are showing their stuff in triple A, they haven’t pitched in triple A yet. Both are still starting for Trenton, and when you look at both of their walk rates you understand why. Banuelos is walking 5.1 batter per 9, and Betances is walking 4.03 batters per 9.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to say AAA in the comments. In the post I was careful to say AA.
Both are walking too many batters, but it has only translated into an unacceptible WHIP for Banuelos. Betances is making up for the free passes with fewer hits.
Also, as a general reply to much of the above, I think Nova is probably off the table as a trade candidate now that Colon is hurt. Nova is actually a better option as a 5th starter than people give him credit for being. He’s not great, but any pitcher with a 95-100 ERA+ is a good option for the last man starting, which is precisely what Nova is and how he’s performed.
There’s more value there than people realize, in part because Nova’s low strikeout rates depress his value stats, but also because he doesn’t get hurt much and can be relied upon at the very least to be durable. I actually wouldn’t trade him for Liriano, who is putting up similar numbers this season, except with a major history of injuries.
Liriano makes sense from an availability standpoint, but the Yankees would have to keep Nova, Banuelos, Montero and Betances for any deal to happen.
I don’t know who wrote this article but whatever happened to giving young arms a chance? These guys have the ability to do something now, they can at least be given a few starts. Banuelos especially, but no we rather keep him in the minors then get a trade only to have another team put him out there. If he’s not good it will come out if he’s going to be great, it will start now
[...] can so quickly rise and fall. This time last season, Betances was hailed as one of the “Killer B’s“, and while he might still bear that moniker the more common sentiment, as Law expresses, is [...]