(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
The 2011 season has been a very perplexing one for the Yankees’ offense. Although the team’s lineup has looked futile on so many individual occasions, the aggregate numbers still suggest it is one of the best in baseball. Almost 50 games into the season, the Yankees not only lead the league in runs per game, but the lineup has also posted the most homeruns and the second highest wOBA. And yet, something still does not feel quite right.
Perhaps one reason it seems as if the Yankees have been struggling so much is because the team got off to such a quick start with the bats. In other words, although the lineup’s recent output hasn’t fallen too far behind the rest of the league, it has significantly lagged its earlier performance (not to mention preseason expectations). So, what short circuited the Yankees’ offense and when did it occur?
Yankees Offensive Performance over Defined Periods
| Games | R/G | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 19 to 47 | 4.62 | 0.249 | 0.330 | 0.409 | 0.330 |
| Rank | 6 | 15 | 9 | 5t | 5t |
| Season | 5.17 | 0.254 | 0.335 | 0.445 | 0.344 |
| Rank | 1 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Source: fangraphs.com
Segmenting a sample can often lead to a misleading analysis, but the tenor of the Yankees’ season seemed to change on April 25 when the team returned home for a four-game series against the White Sox. In that game, the 12-6 Bronx Bombers, who were leading the league with a whopping 6.1 runs/game, were opposed by journeyman Philip Humber, so the natural expectation was a blowout. However, the Chicago righty not only kept the Yankees from scoring a single run, but he also no hit them for 6 1/3 innings.
Since Humber’s masterpiece, the Yankees’ offense has fallen off considerably. Not only has the lineup’s per game run production dropped to 4.6, but most relevant metrics have taken a dip as well. Although it’s worth mentioning that the team’s production during this decline period has still been above average in aggregate, a closer look at each game tells a somewhat different story.
Of the 134 runs scored since April 25, almost 28% (37) have come in three games, meaning the team’s average in all others has been 3.7 runs. Obviously, negative outliers can’t simply be dismissed, but doing so helps to reveal a level of inconsistency that gets lost in the season totals.
Yankees’ Run Distribution, by Defined Period
Source: Baseball-reference.com
As illustrated in the chart above, the Yankees’ offense has produced uneven results over the last month. That’s why even the already low 4.6 run average doesn’t really explain the extent of the lineup’s slump. Perhaps most telling is that in almost 80% of the last 29 games, the offense has produced five or fewer runs, a season-long level not seen since the 1960s. Considering that the Yankees have a .380 winning percentage in such games since 2000 (.397 in all such games since 1903), the offense’s recent left leaning run distribution is worthy of concern.
Yankees’ Run Distribution, Compared to Past Years and 2011 Segments
| R <= | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2011 MLB | Since 4/25 |
| 5 | 46.9% | 64.8% | 58.0% | 54.9% | 63.8% | 73.0% | 79.3% |
| 4 | 37.7% | 52.5% | 42.6% | 48.1% | 42.6% | 60.7% | 51.7% |
| 3 | 25.9% | 43.2% | 25.3% | 33.3% | 29.8% | 47.1% | 41.4% |
| 2 | 20.4% | 30.9% | 14.8% | 17.9% | 14.9% | 31.2% | 20.7% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 14.2% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| 0 | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 10.3% |
| R/G | 5.98 | 4.87 | 5.65 | 5.30 | 5.17 | 4.17 | 4.62 |
Source: Baseball-reference.com
One final illustration of the Yankees’ offensive decline is depicted in the running average graph presented below. Although a downward trend from inflated early season totals isn’t unusual, the Yankees’ output has experienced a steady decline interrupted by the three previously mentioned outbursts (indicated by red dots on the chart). At some point, the Yankees will need this trend line to head permanently in the opposite direction if the offense is going to re-emerge as the dynamic force most observers expected (with the Yankees leading the Blue Jays 7-3 at the time of this post, perhaps that reversal of fortune is happening now).
Moving Average of Yankees’ Per Game Run Output
Note: Red dots indicate three games of at least 12 runs. White dot indicates 4/25 “turning point”.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Just like in the stock market, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. So, the point of this analysis isn’t to suggest that the Yankees’ offense is in an irreversible downward spiral, nor imply that the lineup, even in its current state, isn’t still among the best in baseball. In fact, most of the data presented proves that latter point. However, this segmented look at the season does a better job of indicating the lineup’s current state than the recitation of season-long averages.
Now that we know when the Yankees’ offense started its decline, the bigger question of why remains. That’s something I’ve tried to answer before (here, here, and here), and although any combination of those theories could be a contributor, there are likely many more factors to consider. One additional theory, which coincides nicely with the identification of April 25 as the turning point, revolves around the suggestion that opposing teams had developed a new plan of attack against the Yankees’ power-laden lineup. According to the reports, opposing pitchers are being instructed to feed the Yankees’ batters a steady diet of off-speed pitches. But, what do the numbers say?
Pitch Breakdown Faced by Yankees’ Hitters, 2006-2010 vs. 2011
| Split | FB% | wFB | SL% | wSL | CH% | wCH | CB% | wCB | CT% | wCT |
| 2006-2010 | 502.2 | 12.6% | 46.1 | 10.9% | 29.4 | 9.0% | 21.6 | 4.0% | -13.4 | |
| 2011 | 12.3% | 5 | 11.2% | -2.8 | 10.4% | -6.9 | 5.2% | -4.4 | ||
| Since 4/25 | 11.9% | 0.1 | 11.2% | 5.9 | 9.9% | 0.9 | 6.0% | 7.3 | ||
| Since 5/11 | 11.3% | 0.9 | 12.0% | 0.5 | 8.8% | -0.7 | 6.4% | 2.6 |
Source: fangraphs.com
From 2006-2010, 60.7% of the pitches thrown to Yankee hitters were fastballs. This year, however, the lineup has only seen 57.1% fastballs. What’s more, the decline in fastballs becomes more pronounced as the splits grow nearer to the present date. Considering that the lineup has excelled against the fastball and struggled against most other pitches, this adjustment seems to have had at least some negative impact on the team’s offensive performance.
Whether or not there has been a concerted effort to avoid throwing fastballs, it’s evident that opposing pitches have been reticent to challenge the Yankees’ hitters. So, maybe an adjustment by the opposition has been a significant contributor to the team’s lower run production? If so, a revival by the offense will likely require a counter adjustment to this new mode of attack.
All things remaining equal, the Yankees’ offense remains potent enough to carry them into the postseason. However, just like there is no guarantee that the offense will continue to struggle relative to its earlier performance, we can’t assume the starting rotation will continue to exceed expectations. That’s why it’s important for the Yankees’ offense to rebound to a league leading level, rather than settle in at a notch below. Otherwise, Brian Cashman could find himself in the market for a hitter instead of, if not in addition to, a starting pitcher.
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10 Responses to Run-Away Offense: A Look at the Yankees’ Recent Offensive Downturn
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TIQ IQ
Say Cashman does think it necessary to look for a bat, what kind of bat would he be going after? It seems that the only spots on the team available to stick a new bat in would be RF, or DH. I’ve seen people suggest Beltran, but honestly I just can’t see the Mets/Yankees doing that. IF he does well and they don’t get anything they look awful, if we give up anything of value and he doesn’t succeed we look awful. It’s too much of a lose-lose.
With Posada struggling against lefties and Swisher struggling against righties, I guess the best solution would be someone who could play the outfield against RHP, and DH against LHP. I don’t know of anyone who fits that bill though, anyone in mind?
By the end of June, we should have a better idea about the three guys who have really underperformed (Jeter, Posada, and Swisher). We know Jeter isn’t going anywhere, so that leaves open DH and RF. Beltran is the obvious target, but there are bound to be more as the season shakes out. With the Twins struggling, Michael Cuddyer could be an option. He’s a free agent after this season, so I don’t think the price would be that high. He doesn’t really excite me, but he is pretty good against left handers.
I suppose Cuddyer has gotten a little better as the season has gone on but he should be a pretty final option. He had the two good seasons (3 years apart) and hasn’t really touched those numbers at any other time.
In 675 ABs last season .271/.336/.417 with a wOBA of .329
In 176 ABs this season .267/.330/.391 with a wOBA of .325
But you are right he has mashed lefties to the tune of .370/.442/.609 with 3 HRs this season, and .285/.400/.475 with 6 HRs last season. In fact over the last 3 seasons he is hitting .288/.381/.521 with 21 HRs against lefty pitching in 413 ABs.
So I suppose that actually wouldn’t be the worst trade we could make, I would prefer someone who could hit right handers though. He would really only replace the role currently occupied by Jones, I wouldn’t be comfortable with him getting any significant playing time against right handed pitchers.
We’d probably be better off upping the package and going after Kubel, who is also a free agent after the season, but I don’t know if they would be too keen on trading one of their best bats. I’m still hoping we can make a deal for Liriano, maybe if we could work a way for Cuddyer to come along in a deal for Francisco it would be better.
I wonder if the White Sox would entertain trading Carlos Quentin?
I almost hate to bring it up but maybe if the Cubs are looking to dump Alfonso Soriano?
He may not be the best fit in RF, but Chris Young might be available with the Diamondbacks as well.
David DeJesus is a free agent next season, and the A’s are always looking to deal a guy, but usually not for nothing.
Once again, another superb post, William. I was planning on taking a look at the offense as a whole myself, but now I don’t have to!
With all due respect to the research done for this post, I’m not sure what I’m supposed to conclude from it. Yes, the Yankees offense isn’t great if you take out the games where they score a lot of runs. Yes, they can be inconsistent.
But how can you have a fair debate if you attempt to downplay the offense outbursts, but don’t do the same for some of the futile offensive games? It seems like you’re trying to suggest that if the Yankees score 15 runs against the Orioles they’re playing above their heads, but if they get shutout by a White Sox rookie, its because they’ve started an offensive decline. I think you either have to throw out both the amazing/awful performances, or look at season averages for what they are.
Also, I’m relatively sure that the number of offenses in MLB history that were consistently great for 162 games is still zero. Saying the offense is inconsistent is a given for pretty much every team, every year.
I feel you’d be better off analyzing how much of a negative effect the downtrending players (like Jeter and Swisher) have on the offense than trying to portray the entire offensive unit as struggling.
Furthermore, this post (for the most part) fails to put their run totals in any kind of context – in a year where offense is again down across the board, the Yankees may not be mashing the ball like we’ve been accustomed to seeing, but they’re still right on top in the important categories like runs per game, wOBA and homers. Despite some frustrating offensive games, I am unconcerned.
Solid point, Ross. Though the Yankee offense has scuffled a fair amount — at least, perhaps moreso than we’re used to seeing — in the context of the leaguewide offensive decline their struggles probably aren’t quite as severe as they might initially appear.
I would also be interested to see to what extent Jeter, Posada and Swisher are weighing the proceedings down. I’m sure one of us can do the dirty work on this. I actually have a lengthy piece on Swisher’s struggles slated for tomorrow morning, though it doesn’t account for how he and the other slumpers have bogged the offense down as a whole.
Perhaps looking at standard deviation of runs scored, instead of just average runs scored, might give a better picture of whether the Yankee offense’s underlying struggles are being hidden by some large outbursts against mediocre pitchers. I think they’re probably just fine, but if the Yankees did have an unusually high number of games with under 3 runs scored (for instance), that might be cause for concern.
You’re exactly right. The point of the bell-like curves was to given a look at the variance in runs scored. As I explained in the previous comment, low scoring games aren’t outliers, so they don’t really skew the average as much as 12 and 13 run outbursts. The key figure to consider is that since 4/25, the Yankees have scored at or below their mean in a relatively high percentage of games. That is definitely worth noting.
There are a few valid points to consider, so I’ll take them one at a time.
1) The reason the outburts are removed from the equation is because they are extreme outliers (12 and 13 run games are over 2 deviations from the mean). The most futile performance (a shutout), however, is just over one deviation from the mean). That’s why it is valid to toss out the three extreme data points.
2) I think I made it pretty clear that the data was merely used to present a snapshot of how the Yankees offense has been over the past 30 games. Although some might regard that as an arbitrary cutoff, it is still a meaningful sample. Also, I provided some context for why that cutoff my be relevant.
3) Individual profiles are also interesting (I think Swish and Jeter have already been covered at least once here), but this was a macro look.
4) I am not sure why you feel I didn’t provide run environment context when the run distribution chart includes the 2011 MLB total. Furthermore, the rest of the data is comparing the Yankees to themselves within 2011, not to the rest of baseball.
To answer you overall question, what I wanted people to take away from is that the Yankees have had real struggles over a significant period of time. Simply citing their season long averages obscures this fact. At 30 games, I can see why some might be too concerned, but at the very least, the trends should be worthy of taking note. After all, every season long decline (like 2008) starts with a relatively portion of games.
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