One of the most common refrains I’ve been seeing in the wake of the recent Liriano rumors among Yankee fans is this. Why would the Twins do it? Here you have one of the top lefties in the game, on a contending team, why trade him if you’re trying to win? I must admit I’ve asked this question myself, and wondered if there’s something the Twins know about Liriano that the rest of us don’t. Of course they do, they know lots of things about their players that fly under the radar. But to understand why the Twins will make a move like this you need to stop thinking like a Yankee fan, and start thinking like a Twins executive. I’ll break this down into 4 parts, as follows:
The Twins aren’t the Yankees-First thing you need to understand is how the Twins operate. They’re not the Yankees, who make winning their primary concern and put finances aside. Like every other team in baseball they have a budget, a fairly strict one, and part of their long term strategy is trading off pieces before they get too expensive. Most think the time to deal someone would be the year before they become FA, but dealing someone a year earlier is becoming more commonplace. Cliff Lee was traded by the Indians with 2 years before he hit FA, as was Jake Peavey (Padres) and Zack Grienke (Royals). Those teams weren’t competitive, but as small market clubs they operate the same way the Twins do. The difference will be the Twins will look for pieces in return that can help them win now, whereas the Indians, Royals and Padres had a longer time horizon with the prospects they were looking for. But the motivation is the same. Given Liriano’s injury history and the fact that he’s relatively cheap and under team control for 2 years, there’s a good argument to be made that his value will never be higher than it is right now.
They have a ready replacement-The Twins will be looking to make room for top prospect Kyle Gibson in their rotation sometime this year. He’s the top pitcher in their system, pitched as high as AAA (3 starts) last year and was recently ranked by BA as the #34 prospect on their top 100 list. Gibson pitched most of last year in AA 
and performed well, and High-A to AA is considered the biggest jump in the minors. He’s a classic Twins pitcher, polished and doesn’t throw overly hard. By the time the July 31st trade deadline rolls around, he will in all likelihood already be on the 25 man roster, either getting his MLB feet wet in the bullpen or filling in for someone in the rotation.
They have needs to fill-Like the Rays, the Twins pretty much lost their entire bullpen this off season with the defections of Jesse Crain (White Sox) Jon Rauch (Blue Jays) Matt Guerrier (Dodgers) Brian Fuentes (A’s) and Ron Mahay (Dodgers). They also could use an outfielder. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer were awful last year, totaling 0.7 WAR between the two of them. They’re also both hacks defensively, and that doesn’t sit well with the Twins philosophy of pitching to contact and playing solid defense. With an excess of starters, they can use that fill in their needs elsewhere and its not a step back. It’s a win-now move assuming they get back MLB ready talent in return, which will be key to making a deal from their perspective. Dealing off Liriano could make them more likely, not less, to compete this year and beyond.
They’re not happy with Liriano-Jay Jaffe details this meticulously in a recent piece on Baseball Prospectus (subs req’d). He’s had a history of hiding injuries and not communicating how he feels to the team. He has also been accused not doing his rehab work by the Twins, which is why they felt it took him so long to come back from Tommy John surgery. Further, as recently as this spring it was revealed he wasn’t doing his shoulder strengthening exercises this off season, which resulted in a shoulder strain in early camp. They also think that with his violent delivery and heavy reliance on the slider, he’s a good candidate to break down more as he gets older. Given the way the Twins operate the time to sell would be now, not later. They’d rather sell him a year too early than wait, have him get hurt and be worthless.
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35 Responses to Why the Twins would consider trading Liriano
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TIQ IQ
This is why from the Yankee perspective, you can’t give up a Baneulos or Betances for Liriano. Given the risks attached to Liriano you have to offer 2nd tier prospects for him, ones that fill their needs right away. But you have to offer a package of MLB ready talent or there won’t be a deal. Players on the 40 man roster. Assuming Joba has a good spring, I think a package could be built around him, maybe a placeholder starter like Nova/Warren/Phelps and filled in with another reliever type like Noesi and a AAA OF.
It seems strange that you have the first comment. Shouldn’t this be in the article?
Steve tends to comment on his own stuff when he has a point to make that is incidental to the article. The post was on the Twins perspective, this comment is the Yankees perspective.
Thanks
Ken Rosenthal has the Twins turning down a deal for Nova and Nunez already this winter and the Twins insisted that Banuelos be in any deal bringing Liriano to the Bronx, this pipe dream has effectively ended.
Just one point I wanted to make: the Twins are no longer a small market team. They have a payroll over 100 million. That doesn’t mean a Liriano decision won’t be financially-driven, just that it is not a matter of whether they can afford him, its whether they want to.
I was going to mention that but didn’t want to get sidetracked. Their organizational philosophy is still that of a small market team, now they just have the ability to retain the Joe Mauers of the world. Who alone eats up a big piece of that 100 mil.
I appreciate this excellent assessment from Minnesota’s perspective.
I am as concerned about Liriano as the Twins’ management is, and there is no way I would be a happy Yankees fan if Cash gives up too much for him – even taking into account the typical Yankee overpay in light of the well known paucity of MLB ready starters in Yankee camp. Joba or Nova, OK, maybe even both – perhaps even Brackman instead of either. No way I give up Betances or Banuelos or Montero for Liriano; I would be satisfied with Joba, Nova and Laird or a similar package, but I just keep thinking about Liriano’s injury history and his violent mechanics along with his heavy reliance on a hard slider – I doubt he will make it through the extension he will demand from the Yanks without significant injury.
JOBA, NUNEZ, GARDNER
NO WAY…Gardner is overkill for the risk.
Gardner isn’t overkill for someone with that kind of upside because Gardner’s upside isn’t much more than what he did last season, in fact the only way I see a deal getting done is if they want Brett and we trade him.
Since Gardner is in the major leagues with success you could use that to get Banuelos, Betances and Montero out of the deal, add in Brackman and Nunez and they probably still say no but it’s a much more fair deal.
Id offer Gardner, Brackman, Nunez and Phelps and if they say no hang up the phone and be done with it.
agree only i put joba vs brackman, the twins need middle relief now…brackman is not ready yet..send gardner on his way,with the others you mentioned
You think they’d want Joba over Brackman? Joba probably has the more steady future as he has already proven he can be serviceable as a setupman or middle reliever but I would think at this point Brackman has more upside.
Id honestly much rather keep Brackman over Joba but I would just figure that the Twins want as much upside as possible in any deal for Liriano, I suppose if the Twins believe Joba might start one day then he and Andrew have a similar ceiling (middle rotation) with a similar floor (middle relief) but with the risk of busting out being slightly higher for Andrew.
agreed..i just think after they lost a few key men and their closer just coming back joba is major league ready.if nathan has a problem joba would be a major cog then..
I agree with that but if Brackman goes to the pen I imagine he could be like an 07 Joba, not as dominant certainly but throwing in the upper 90′s with a nasty curve and slider. You could call him up around the all-star break after having him start in triple A in the rotation and then decide like Joba if you want to continue with him in the pen or rotation.
I can’t see Andrew getting to the majors with us this year as anything but a starter but with the Twins he could as you alluded to play a big role either setting up Nathan or spelling him in case of injury.
I guess I just look at Joba like damaged goods at this point, he is good certainly but his value has greatly dropped, even if the Twins look at Joba as a starter they would still only negotiate with us as him being a middle reliever/setup man. I think Brackman since he still has that nice prospect tag on him by the baseball world carries more value if for no other reason there is more of the unknown in his future for greatness, however I guess that goes the other way as well since he has more unknown for failure altogether.
i seen brackman last year at trenton he got his fastball up to 97.. he is a hugh prospect..if the yanks hold on to him they should bring him up late and keep him in the pen..right now chris i feel we have a shut down pen with talent to spare..i would prefer not to trade and go with what we have unless we can steal a guy..we won 96 games with a horrible javy aj mosley mitre gaudin and i know i am forgetting someone..and pettitte going down.no marte or aceves..i love our pen..imagine if prior can come back..there is a lot to talk about ,makes it more interesting for guys like us to give our ‘expert’ opinions.have you been watching any games?
It seems to me that they need a catcher to provide Mauer more time at DH and perhaps 1B as he ages.
They also need a @B and SS…and OFers.
And releivers…
I think Martin or Romine, Nunez, Cujo or Adams, and maybe Maxwell should be the start of talks. I would prefer to keep Joba or Nova out of it…which is why I think Cashman walked away last month.
The Twins #2 positional prospect is a catcher. Maybe they could use a place holder/backup type like Cervelli, but that’s it.
Not that I am aware of. They traded Ramos for Capps.
Right,I should have remembered that. I was looking at an old list.
Maxwell has no trade value… he was designated for assignment by the Nats and we claimed him off waivers, the Twins would’ve had to pass on him for us to even claim him. Why would they then make Maxwell the jumpoff point for trading their best starter when they could have claimed him for free?
I’m sorry but the players you are throwing out don’t hold value and the Twins aren’t going to feel bad for us and give us a deal, if we get Liriano we will have to overpay plain and simple, if those are the kind of players/deals you want to offer then we might as well just not even be involved in trade talks and move forward with what we have.
You just aren’t giving any real value or anyone with a high ceiling, they aren’t throwing Liriano away here, Nova would be a must probably and I doubt anyone really considers Joba much more than throw in at this point, we’ve de-valued him too much.
i seen maxwell this spring and i think he is aa guy right now..he stinks
I may be wrong but he seems like Melky Mesa with less potential upside but maybe a more solid floor, is this right?
i seen mesa play a lot last year and was very impressed..i had mentioned that on here last year and a poster found my opinion laughable..but he is in camp so someone is giving him a look..he has a quick bat with power..but it is only my opinion..i would like to see golson make the 25 man
I haven’t seen Mesa much but he seems like a great athlete with raw ability and that can workout sometimes if they ever get the bat developed fully.
I’d actually rather see someone like Mesa/Maxwell/Chavez make the team over Golson just because I don’t think he has any potential for growth with the bat, I don’t ever see him being anymore as defensive replacemnt and base running and we can find that in a lot of places. Having his speed off the bench is nice but I’d rather see someone with potential in the bat snag that spot, I wouldn’t be mad if he did make it though because he has a cannon and could help late in games PR for a guy like Posada.
he does have a cannon, you stated all the reasons why i like him.and only in those roles..the off the bench bat is going to be andruw..golson won’t hit,your right..but he looks like he is ready and welcomes that sort of role..i would like to see pena and chaves in the infield jones and golson in the outfield,we just can’t carry all of them..who would you go with
Why would they want Martin or Romine?
Mauer needs more relief as he gets older…they need his bat in line-up, and need a good back up catcher to give him the chance to DH or play some 1B (if Morneau continues to suffer from concussion effects).
I agree, I could absolutely see them wanting a potential backup catcher. However, I’m not sure they’d want one as one of the key prospects in the deal. I think it is more likely that they ask for Cervelli as more of a throw-in.
Well Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees offered Ivan Nova and Ramiro Pena in a deal for Liriano earlier in the winter and were turned down, the Twins however have a lot of interest in Manny Banuelos and will insist on him being in any deal for Francisco Liriano.
That should end all of the specualtion as far as I’m concerned, he isn’t worth Banuelos considering the similar upside and the repeated injury risks to Liriano with his slider, as I said when this topic first came up the only way they would ever trade him to us is if they cleaned house on us and we can’t do that for (anyone) him.
Any deal involving a bunch of Noesi’s and Nunez’s isn’t going to get this deal done.
only one guy i would put banuelos in a deal for, is felix and that is a dream
I might add Josh Johnson to the list as well but other than those 2 I’d be hard pressed at the current junction to add Banuelos or Montero for anyone else, maybe if Jimenez was available we’d have to start thinking about him but I don’t believe he is on the level of the other 2 pitchers mentioned.
JJ yeah he is lights out..i believe the marlins shut him down just before the end of last season..wonder if it was to rest him or he had an issue..but he is great..
He was injured, I don’t remember what it was I just remember that he got hurt because I had him as Cy Young winner before the all-star break but once he got hurt it was over. He maintained a 1.8 ERA until after the all-star break though, very impressive what he is able to do with essentially 3 pitches.
He signed that 4 year extension before last season but if the Marlins are out of it at the break I could see them listening for a guy who would have 2 and a half years of contract time left, they’d want Montero obviously but I think I could live with it as long as we keep Banuelos. Even worse case scenario losing Montero and Betances would still be acceptable for that type of young arm under team control assuming we keep Banuelos.
I’d rather trade Banuelos and Sanchez for Johnson but I doubt you could ever score that kid for two prospects so far away from the Majors, they would want a Josh Beckett to the Sox type haul and Montero would be the Hanley of the deal.
yeah, cash would give montero for him..when does their new park open?