It’s Friday! Yay! Here’s the next installment of Over/Under. This time, I’ll be looking at the Captain.
Derek Jeter had his worst pro season in 2010 and he’s looking to rebound from it after changing up his swing a bit. I think he’ll do better in 2011 than he did in 2010, but that isn’t saying much is it? It’s definitely hard to imagine Jeter hitting much worse than he did last season. Let’s get to it, again using the average projection, provided by RLYW.
Over/Under: .283 BA: I’m going to say over. I think Jeter’s contact skills will remain sharp and he’ll hit over this low-for-Jeter number. I don’t think he’ll necessarily hit to his career average of .314, but I think he’ll be at least slightly over .283. Prediction: .291.
Over/Under: .351 OBP: I’m going to go over again here. Using the average projection, I came up with an IsoD of .068, but since I predicted a .291 average, I applied that .068 IsoD to that same .291 average and came up with a .359 OBP. I’m comfortable saying Jeter can do a .359 OBP, but I don’t think he’ll go much over that unless he starts walking a lot more or he hits over .300 again.
Over/Under: .394 SLG: Using the same logic as the IsoD, I calculated the average IsoP to be .111 and added it to the .291 average and came up with .402. I think that sounds about right for Jeter so I’ll say over the .394 average SLG projection. But, like the OBP, I don’t think we’ll see it much higher. Jeter’s getting older and since 2008, a low .400′s SLG is more like the norm than the exception (.465 in 2009).
Over/Under: .332 wOBA: I’ll go over here (duh). Again, though, I don’t think it’ll be much higher than that. I’ll say he’ll end up with a wOBA between .340 and .350, though it’ll likely be closer to .340 than to .350.
I will definitely admit that I’m being very bearish on Derek Jeter right now. The average projection definitely seems dragged down by Jeter’s most recent performance, which just happened to be his worst season ever. I’m cautiously optimistic for improvement from the Yankee shortstop, but I won’t be at all surprised if 2011 continues his decline.
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