The Yankees probably have just enough starting pitching right now to make the postseason. They have 3 starters who should give them reasonably good performance and a few options who could surprise out of the last two slots, which should give them enough to contend for a playoff spot on the strength of their offense and bullpen. That said, I am sure that Brian Cashman will spend much of the year looking to add at least one more starter, as this team likely needs another quality arm to succeed in the postseason. While the market looks barren right now, plenty of decent options are certain to become available as the year progresses, which brings us to the N.L. Central.
The N.L. Central is the perfect storm of good but not great teams, with three clubs likely to vie for the division title (Cardinals, Brewers, Reds) and another two that behave more like contenders than their talent or track record warrant (Cubs, Astros). Furthermore, all except the Cubs are clubs that have shown a willingness to trade away talent at the deadline if they are not in contention and can either save money or improve their franchise. Finally, all of them have starting pitchers that I could see them moving if the right situation presents itself. If those clubs all remain in the playoff mix deep into July, they will not be looking to shed a quality starting pitcher. But if one of the teams runs away from the pack, this division might present a bevy of options to any team looking for a starter during the season. Let’s look at the players each team might make available if they fall out of contention:
St. Louis Cardinals
Chris Carpenter is the obvious choice, as he is making plenty of money in 2011 and will be a free agent in 2012 unless someone exercises his 15 million dollar option. Additionally, the Cardinals need to put together an offer for Albert Pujols, and any money they save can help them lock up the best player in baseball. I am sure they will try and move Kyle Lohse as well, but he would have to recover from two consecutive bad seasons for any to consider taking on the remainder of the almost 24 million dollars owed him in 2011-2012.
Cincinnati Reds
Bronson Arroyo could become available if the Reds have a very poor year, as they just extended his deal and his contract (35 million over next 3 years) may begin looking a bit hefty if they are not in contention. If Edinson Volquez starts strong, I could see the Reds taking a shot at extracting a good package of prospects for a player who has only once exceeded 65 IP in an MLB season. However, I see both players staying unless the Reds tank in spectacular fashion, so this may be the club Yankees fans should root for to win the division handily.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are not a wealthy team, and them falling out of the race early could put some surprising names into the trading mix. I would not be shocked to see them put Zack Greinke or Shaun Marcum on the market, as both become free agents in 2013 and would likely be at their highest value at the 2011 deadline. The Brewers could look to get some high-ceiling prospects for one of them, sign the other, and then build around Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and the pitcher they keep. Randy Wolf is a more obvious choice, as he is signed for 19 million over the next two years and is not that good to begin with. He is about league average and eats innings, which should make him attractive to someone at the deadline.
Chicago Cubs
Other than Matt Garza, who the Cubs just traded a bevy of prospects for and are unlikely to move, I could see any of their starters going in a midseason deal to replenish the farm system, assuming that Jim Hendry finally bites the bullet and begins to rebuild. Carlos Zambrano and Carlos Silva are obviously available but have equally obvious flaws, and would only be taken on by another club in a salary dump deal. Randy Wells is a solid young pitcher and should not be available, but the Cubs are not that high on him and he likely could be pried from them. Ryan Dempster, who is quite underrated and would be a solid #3 starter in the AL East, is in the last year of his deal (14M player option for 2012) and should be on the market come the trade deadline. He makes plenty of sense for the Yankees and I expect Brian Cashman to seriously consider pursuing him.
Houston Astros
The Astros frequently view themselves as contenders even when they are clearly not qualified for that title, so it is hard to say what they might do. It looked like they were starting to tear things down with the Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt trades, but then they re-signed Wandy Rodriguez rather than trade him at what was likely to be his peak value. Brett Myers is another guy who they signed to an extension, but there have already been rumblings about his availability and he could become available at some point over the next two seasons. His contract is actually not too bad for a guy with his statistical record as a starter, and he should be able to provide slightly above average performance while eating some innings.
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16 Responses to NL Central Race Could Be Important To Yankees Season
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The only one who interests me is Zack Greinke…My criteria is who would I want to start game #2 in play-offs and guarantee a win against Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Twins, Tigers, Phillies, or Braves, etc.
I don’t want an “innings eater” as the kids we already have can do that.
My other preferences would be Gio Gonzales (if he became available) or Johan Santana (IF healthy and available). I like crafty lefties in YS who have good change-ups.
Personally I see no way on earth possible for the Mets and Yankees to make a Johan trade even if he was 100% healthy, the risk for both sides is too great from a PR standpoint.
First of all I don’t see Cashman trading for Santana unless it’s simply a salary dump and we give nothing up and I don’t see the Mets trading him to us without getting at least decent prospects (to cover the risk) and making us pay some contract.
There really is only downside for the Mets, if he does great for us they gave up on him to a cross town rival for nothing more than salary relief and if they get prospects they won’t be great so you have the same problem on limited return. If the Yankees gave up a name prospect then the downside is all ours because if he doesn’t do great in the AL East, with an 88 MPH fastball, we gave up a future big league player to the Mets for potentially a number 3 or 4 in the AL East Santana and have to read about how the prospect every week.
There are just a lot of obstacles I don’t think could be jumped in that deal, The Mets may end up trading him but I don’t see it being to us.
Are you trading Montero or Banuelos as the main piece in the Gonzalez deal?
Actually, I TRULY don’t believe we need anything. Even the players I mentioned. The team has gone to the WS with worse rotation pitchers, and I believe Nova, Garcia, or COlon will each be able to win 12-15 games each. And Brackman and the other kids at SWB are fine for the needs they may have.
It all comes down to how well AJ and Hughes are pitching at trade deadline time. If they are pitching well and project to do well in play-offs, there is no need for a trade of any sort.
I think we are fine as far as making the playoffs but we aren’t winning the Series with our rotation, we dont have a 2 starter (Hughes is a 3 maybe a 4 in these playoffs) capable of winning behind a CC loss and relying on Sabathia to win every game won’t work often.
My only thing is I don’t want to trade Banuelos or Montero for this season alone, the only way I would trade either is for a pitcher who gives us a 1A this year and an ace if (when) Sabathia opts out, a pitcher like Josh Johnson is worth emptying quite a few prospects for because of his longterm value.
I’ve been wanting JJ for 2 years, but don’t see it happening….I don’t want Felix because of the mechanics issue we previously discussed. Greinke is that level for me, but it makes more sense for Brewers to build around him and sign him to an extension (if they can). Santana would be great if healthy–but as you point out–could be tough to acquire…
Who’s really left?
I don’t like any of the other central division pitchers..
Gio would be great…Billingsly…CJ Wilson…
But we might find out that Burnett is locked in this year and could be the guy.
One other name to toss out…Carmona…eh…
After seeing him tonight though, Nova might actually surprise and be that #2. He reminds me a lot of Wang. If he has that sinker going with his slider/cutter (whatever he calls it), and a change….he might be our own version of Carmona in 2007…
I come back to I hold on to see what we have in July, and think we don’t have to make a move after all.
We didn’t want Greinke this offseason why would we want him now? He still has the same anxiety disorder as before only now he’s not desperate to leave, I personally think New York would be tough on Greinke and you won’t get the same production from him here as you would in KC or Milwauke.
Even if we could get Santana I would probably pass he just doesn’t have the same stuff he once did and he’s much better suited at this point in his career for the NL. I’m not saying he can’t do it I’m just saying that I don’t see him as an ace for anyone anymore and in the AL East you don’t know what he is even if healthy.
Billingsley is highly overrated and wouldn’t make a top of the rotation pitcher in the AL East, his career xFIP is higher than 4 and even last year (his career year) he still had a xFIP of 3.85. He just reminds me of a pitcher who will always carry a 4+ ERA while pitching for us and we already have AJ Burnett for that.
I don’t see anyway Texas would trade CJ Wilson to anyone but I know they wouldn’t trade him to us! Besides that I don’t care much for CJ Wilson and I wouldn’t trade for him even if available, his numbers indicate quite a bit of luck last year and I don’t believe he will ever repeat the numbers he had last year. I also think this is going to be a tough year for CJ because of the innings he threw last season catching up with his arm, you see it with guys like Cole Hamels after their WS run in 08, come 09 he had nothing in his arm.
Besides that CJ Wilson K’s 7.5 per 9 and he walks well over 4, sure his ERA was 3.35 but his xFIP was 4.20, his BABIP was a micrscopic .265, and his stuff if less than great, he just never seemed as good as he was pitching last year and all his numbers show he will be much closer to that 4.20 than to the 3.35 he posted.
Let’s not get carried away with Nova because of 1 ST start or ST in general, he is a nice young kid with a live fastball but he is never going to be anybodies number 2 pitcher in either league he just isn’t that kind of pitcher.
What made Wang special was the fact that he could produce ground ball rates over and at 60% (62 and 63% in his first 2 seasons 59% in the 3rd), even though Nova does keep the ball low and is effective at getting groundballs he doesn’t generate ground ball numbers like that with his fastball (51% last year only). Had Wang not generated such an abnormally high GB% he wouldn’t have been as good as he was and you can’t expect those kinds of numbers from Nova.
Let’s also not forget that Wang was much hyped and has many Yankee fans looking back on him as an ace or number 1 pitcher when in actuality he was a glorified awesome number 3 or low 2 pitcher in any rotation worthy of winning a Series title.
Carmona isn’t an assured number 2 because of his ups and downs and I wouldn’t be confident paying the price it would take to get him.
In fact Wang never had a season with a xFIP lower than 4.16 so while he was a good pitcher he isn’t the kind of pitcher I would trade Montero or Banuelos to acquire if he were available at 100% on the market right now, he simply wasn’t a good enough pitcher for that, he tended to be a defacto number simply winning with a good offense.
Just for the record I would trade for Hernandez in a heart beat and if he were available there is no way the Yankees wouldn’t trade for him based on mechanics. Plenty of pitchers have had mechanics that people thought would hurt them and pitched fine for years, plent of others have had their mechanics raved about only to blow out elbows and shoulder, at the end of the day it’s a crap shoot and if you can acquire a talent like Hernandez you take the gamble at the right price.
Like I said the Yankees need a 1A or legit number 2 pitcher if they want to win the WS this season, but just because we need it doesn’t mean well get it. At the end of the day we may just end up parting with mid level guys and acquiring an inning eater like Dempster, I don’t want to do that but we will trade for someone and to get anyone that matters up top we have to part with Montero or Banuelos and I won’t do that for just anyone.
I still say the most likely to be dealt out of all the top end pitchers is Josh Johnson, if the Marlins are behind by enough ganes at the deadline it makes sense, he won’t stay there past this contract and you can get the most for him with 2 and a half years left on his deal. You trade him out of the NL and re-stock with a Hanley Ramirez for Beckett type trade the Marlins are known for, only this time it’s a slugging catcher not a slugging SS.
I really don’t think we will come back in July and think we don’t have to make a move, even in the best case scenario of AJ pitching like 2009 and Hughes more or less repeating last year were still left with Nova starting games in the ALCS and WS if we get that far.
I also don’t have a lot of faith in Hughes come playoff time because he has shown in 3 seperate years (twice in relief and last year as a starter) that he gets overwhelmed on the big stage and he stuggles with command, the best case scenario is to have him be the 4th starter come playoff time while a trade pitcher is our number 2 starter and AJ pitches well enough to be a 3.
I’d be willing to trade for Liriano but wouldn’t give up Montero or Banuelos so the deal wouldn’t get done.
I see Marcum staying, they may trade Greinke although I think they would be more inclined to trade Fielder than Zach, but I don’t see this team falling far enough out to justify trading anyone. I don’t expect them to win the division but I do expect them to compete the entire time and make a run late.
They have a chance to keep Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum together for a few years and if you can you should try and ride that out because that’s a talented trio.
I agree that keeping that rotation together would be a great strategy….
Just imagine what they can do with Greinke in the NL if Gallardo can cut back on the pitch count and take that next step from thrower to pitcher. They would have 2 legit aces, at this point I don’t consider Gallardo that because even though I think Gallardo has some of the best stuff in baseball he doesn’t go deep enough into games, if he cuts back on the balls and pitches more to contact he could go much deeper in games, give his pen a better chance to win games and becomes a real ace.
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Cash asked for and received a private meeting with Greinke over the offseason, as he was considering making the Royals an offer.. He came away from it convinced that Greinke would be a terrible fit for New York, and unimpressed that Greinke was being so disrespectful of the organization that had stuck with him. If Cashman wasn’t interested then I don’t know what would change his mind this summer.
From Buster Olney: “Greinke lives near Orlando in the off-season, so during the winter meetings the Royals gave a few teams the chance to meet with the pitcher privately. That backfired when Greinke offended some team officials. They found him presumptuous, like a law school student who walks into an interview and starts passing judgment on the firm’s associates. They were also turned off by his lack of respect for the Royals — the team that had drafted and developed him, then protected him during his tumultuous 2006 season.”
I’m sorry, but you guys are selling Hughes WAYYYYY short. Last year was the most innings he threw and you are going to base 2009 relief appearances and his 2010 Texas series as your only evidence? One, and most importantly, you are basing his statistics on a miniscule sample size. Two, you are only focusing on his negative outing. Remember Game 3 of the 2007 ALDS? What did Hughes do? He only came in relief of Clemens, who was sucking, and shut down the Indians to let the Yanks salvage one game in that pathetic series. As for 2010, he pitched flawlessly against the Twins. Hughes should have a lot more endurance this year, meaning he will be consistent instead of what we saw last year with his All Star first half and bad second half. Same goes for Nova. Hughes might not pitch the whole season like he did the first half of last season, but I do expect improvement, leading to a 3.7 ERA and 18 wins with that Yankee offense. That will more than suffice for a number 2 starter, considering the Yankees offense and bullpen.
As for Nova, there won’t be an innings limit and his endurance should be near Hughes’, except without the MLB experience. The guy showed he is competent in the back end of the rotation last year in his small sample size.
As for Burnett, who knows? He can compete for the Cy or flame out like last year, nothing would surprise me? If I had to throw numbers out there, I’d say 4 ERA with 15 wins.
I agree fully on Hughes. Nova I am not yet sold on, and Id peg Burnett for an ERA closer to 4.5, which is decent as well.