Joel Sherman wrote an interesting blog post about Jesus Montero yesterday that I thought was worthy of some dissection. There are some interesting points made, but I find myself disagreeing with the conclusion overall.
Sherman begins by referring to recent reports from scouts who have seen Montero catch in spring training, and have been less than impressed
I asked four scouts independently about Montero’s defense the past few days, and none was enthused about his chances to stay a catcher long term.
One scout went this far: “No matter how many different ways you ask, I don’t see a catcher. Just because you have shin guards and a mask, that doesn’t make you a catcher.”
Sherman then argues that these negative scouting reports are negatively affecting trade value of Jesus Montero, and by keeping him at catcher longer, the Yankees are only hurting his value further. Sherman sees this situation as somewhat analogous to the saga of Joba Chamberlain, who regressed from an untouchable future ace to maybe the 3rd or 4th best relief pitcher on his own team.
I don’t quite see the two as analogous situations, and I’m not sure the trade value argument is really relevant here. For one, reports on Montero’s defense were pretty bad already, and the only people consistently saying that he would be able to catch in the big leagues were the Yankee organization and a few scouts/writers (Frank Piliere and John Manuel most notably). However, the mainstream scouting community seemed to be pretty decided that Montero was not a future catcher, and I would imagine that this perception has been with Montero for years, and already affected his trade value (as Sherman points out, this perception likely cost the Yankees Cliff Lee in the non-trade with Seattle). I really don’t think that anyone has changed their mind on Montero’s defensive capabilities during spring training.
As for the Joba comparison, they are almost opposites rather than comparable situations. Joba is being used as a reliever even though many people outside the Yankee organization believe he has a chance to become a good starter (much more valuable than a lockdown reliever). By contrast, the Yankees are using Montero in the position that would provide the most value (catcher) while outside observers are insisting that he will not be able to handle the position.
With Joba , his valuation by other teams seems to exceed the Yankees’ valuation of him, while with Montero, the Yankees’ valuation seems to be higher than that of other teams. It is for this reason that I would argue that trading Montero is not a good idea if the organization truly believes that he is going to be able to catch long-term. His perceived value to other teams is largely as a future 1b/DH, but if the Yankees trust him to fill the catcher position, he will be more valuable to them than any return he could bring back in a trade.
For the Yankees, I don’t think maximizing trade value is as important as finding impact bats who can fill premium defensive positions. If they hurt Montero’s trade value by trying him out at a position that will be more valuable to the major league club, then it is worth the risk. And besides, even if Montero does ultimately fail to stick behind the plate, he’ll be a cost-controlled DH option for years to come who should put up very valuable production.
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15 Responses to Musing on Montero’s Value
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TIQ IQ
If he defense is going to cost the Yanks games and they ignore that fact…than his actual value will closer to his perceived “trade value” than to the Yankees’ perceived team value. I don’t know if Montero will or will not be a successful catcher. What I do know it that he possesses a plus bat at any position. I also know every minute Jesus spends working with pitchers or practicing blocking balls in the dirt is a minute not spent in the cage. Part of me wants to see him in RF…mashing the ball and saving his knees.
As a recent post has pointed out (framing pitches), a great defensive catcher can arguably add significant value without taking the bat off his shoulder. I hope the Yanks are keeping him at catcher because they see something the rest of scouts in baseball don’t and their not keeping him there because he is blocked at DH (A-Rod, Jeter,), 1st base, and a cheap RF contract. That would be an injustice to Montero who is going to make a living putting up 30hr, 100rbi seasons…not by blocking a 0-2 curveball in the dirt w/ a runner on 3rd.
I agree. We have to hope that they actually see something in him as a catcher. If they don’t, they should either stop the charade and put him in a more natural position or else trade him if he doesn’t fit in.
“put him in a more natural position …”
Like 1B? I simply dont see any other fit, and since that’s the case, Montero becomes the natural full-time successor to the DH slot for 2012.
Montero’s never snagged fly balls in any minor league game. The man’s size and foot speed would prevent him from getting to many fly balls hit to the fringe of a corner OF’s range.
Yeah, he’s way too slow and stiff to play the OF. Forget about RF, it’s C, 1B or DH for him.
I agree with Reggie and Steve I’ve never seen him as outfield eligible, his girth and foot speed are killers, not to mention like Reggie said he’s never shagged balls so we don’t know how comfortable he is at it. Alex Rodriguez may have the arm for RF but he certainly doesn’t handle pop ups well enough to think he can play outfield. Montero may be the same way.
its still early in the evaluation process for Montero who arguably needs another half season at AAA to shake off the rust affecting his catching. Sure he’s shaky right now, but he’ll look better a couple mths from now having benefited from consistent play. His trade value isn’t taking any dip. but put him on the ML team as Martin’s back up, and that might change.
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I don’t doubt he’ll catch, just whether he’ll catch everyday. He can be paired up with CC, Colon/Garcia and Nova. Hughes is still a bit high maintenance, so you’ll want a good defender paired with him. And as I explained this morning, there’s no way on Earth that Montero will ever be AJs catcher. He’s difficult for a good defensive catcher to handle, forget about Jesus.
“I asked four scouts independently about Montero’s defense the past few days.” What four scouts? What does ‘none was enthused’ mean?
I have a real hard time giving any credence to articles like this, especially from a writer like Sherman.
Girardi has also said he thinks he is trying not to mess up and has been trying not to lose the job instead of win it since Cervelli went down. If he is real tight and hoping not to make enough mistakes that would send him down, it may very well cause mistakes.
Montero hasn’t been as bad as I would have assumed given the reports, I think he’ll be a decent enough catcher in the Posada mold. Once that label has been placed its really difficult to take it off.
Sherman is the baseball writer’s equivalent to the message board troll. No analysis he writes should be thought of for more than two seconds. He’s just trying to stir up crap.
agreed and hey to dave.
Hey Old Pep. Good to see you.
I could labor over a response that could sound thought out and analytical or I could tell as it is….
Joel Sherman is and arrogant, deuce-bag, hack who’s chief role is to fan the flames of contention and discord. He knows nothing about baseball; the Yankees or about objective journalism.
I’m surprised that Murdock hasn’t outsourced his assignments to a chimp. You’ve dropped the ball ol Ruppert, cause the Chimp would actually upgrade the content quality of that assignment and cost you a handful of bananas.