(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
The Yankees rounded out their rotation this morning by naming Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia as the team’s fourth and fifth starters, respectively. It was also announced that Bartolo Colon would serves as a swing man in the bullpen, similar to the role Alfredo Aceves performed when healthy over the past three seasons.
Is Ivan Nova ready for the bright lights of being a major league starter?
Although the spring battle for the rotation was billed as an open competition, the decision to go with Garcia over Colon wasn’t really surprising. Heading into camp, it seemed as if the Yankees preferred Nova and Garcia in the rotation, so it wouldn’t have made much sense to change plans based on 15 exhibition innings. As previously noted, however, the Yankees rotation will remain very fluid throughout the year, so by no means are these assignments set in stone, especially with Kevin Millwood now in the fold.
During March, a lot of attention was paid to the Yankees’ cavalcade of veteran starters, which collectively resembled more of an Old Timer’s Day All Star team than an opening day roster, but the real story that emerged from camp was the performance of Ivan Nova. In addition to posting a 1.80 ERA in 20 spring innings, Nova also impressed observers by quickly learning how to throw a new pitch. Under the tutelage of Billy Connors last October, Nova adjusted the grip on his slider, effectively turning the pitch into a cutter.
During the spring, Nova used his new pitch to great effect, but it remains to be seen if he’ll enjoy the same amount of success once the games start to count. Combined with his already impressive fastball, above average curve and functional changeup, however, the addition of cutter makes Nova a much more dynamic pitcher, and perhaps one worthy of lofty expectation. After all, Connors has a pretty good track record teaching the cutter. Just ask Greg Maddux and Andy Pettitte.
Before getting carried too away about Nova’s prospects for 2011, several question marks remain, not the least of which are his youth and inexperience. It’s easy to lose sight of his Nova’s age because he has been overshadowed by the Yankees other more high profile prospects, but the right hander is only 24, which is younger than Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and even Andrew Brackman. However, with youth comes uncertainty, so any optimism about Nova must be tempered. After all, if history is a guide, he probably won’t even spend the entire season in the rotation. For perspective, in the franchise’s 110 year history, only 23 pitches have posted at least 25 starts in a year before their age-25 season, and only 13 have done so since 1961. Furthermore, only seven Yankees’ pitchers have accomplished the feat in their rookie season. Can Nova become the eighth?
Yankees’ Rookies (Age-24 or Younger) With At Least 25 Games Started
| GS | IP | Year | Age | W | L | ERA | ERA+ | |
| Doc Medich | 32 | 235 | 1973 | 24 | 14 | 9 | 2.95 | 125 |
| Fritz Peterson | 32 | 215 | 1966 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 3.31 | 100 |
| Andy Pettitte | 26 | 175 | 1995 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 4.17 | 111 |
| Stan Bahnsen | 34 | 267.1 | 1968 | 23 | 17 | 12 | 2.05 | 140 |
| Ray Caldwell | 26 | 255 | 1911 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 3.35 | 107 |
| Lefty Gomez | 26 | 243 | 1931 | 22 | 21 | 9 | 2.67 | 150 |
| Hippo Vaughn | 25 | 221.2 | 1910 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 1.83 | 145 |
Source: Baseball-reference.com
By the time October rolls around, the Yankees starting rotation could look vastly different than it does today. Just don’t be surprised if Nova is still in it. Although names like Garcia, Colon, Banuelos and Betances have dominated the spring, Nova could wind up being the pitcher who is talked about all summer.
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6 Responses to Garcia Wins Rotation Battle with Colon; Nova Set to Join Rare Company as Rookie Starter
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TIQ IQ
I think Nova will be a solid 4th starter, but what really struck me about the article is the quality of the 7 rookie pitchers listed.
One other thing: notice that the guys with the most starts all had their rookie years from the mid-60′s to the mid-70′s, when the strike zone was larger, etc. The last three names pitched much longer ago, and 2 are even from the dead-ball era. Despite that, none had over 26 starts. The idea that the 4-man rotation was the rule and not the exception even 100 years ago is wrong. (Sorry to miller, but looking at that list reminded me of one of my pet peeves.)
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I love the Russian (Ivanova)! Hoping he comes through!
I love the idea of Nova in the fourth. He has proved himself worthy of this spot and has proved it all spring. I hope his new pitch can continue to be effective. However, I think Garcia is a better long man. I think the Yankees needed to give Colon the opportunity to pitch in the number 5 spot and if it didn’t work out, they would still have Milwood and Garcia to back him up. The fight for the final rotation spot was unfair and by all means, the ball should be placed in Colon’s hands. He was effective and was mainly a ground ball pitcher which works out well in Yankee Stadium.
I think maybe you don’t have a very good grasp on who Colon is if you think he was mostly a groundball pitcher, I mean he has a career 41% GB% which is pretty awful and it fell to 35% in his playoff career.
I don’t see how Garcia is a better long man either. Freddy no longer goes above 90 anymore and relies on a bunch of junk to get you out, but he does it semi-effectively and he has a full assortment of pitches. Colon was always a mainly fastball/breaking pitch guy who rarely threw in a change, his velocity dropped, he never changed pitching style and he was out. He has managed to get above the 90′s and maintain it thus far in ST but we don’t know if he can continue to do so, and on top of not having pitch in the MLB in a year he has HUGE weight and durability questions.
The Yanks have no idea if Colon can even start and maintain his stuff for 5-6 innings every 5 days, at least with Garcia you know the answer to that question. This what the right call, let the guy with more pitches and a better recent history start.
Quite frankly I don’t see how his career GB% really matters. Colon doesn’t pitch in the high 90′s like he did back in the beginning of the decade. Colon (as you can see in spring training)uses his off speed pitches more and tried getting people to ground out. It is the biggest reason as to why he has been so effective this spring. Also, Freddy is a better long man than a starter. Freddy is not a pitcher that I would trust giving the ball to every 5 days while expecting quality innings. How will the yankees know if Colon can’t maintain his stuff for 5-6 innings every 5 days? They will never know because he’s not being given a chance even though he won the battle in spring training and the yankees didn’t think it would be a competition from the beginning. You can’t argue that he no doubt won the battle. Baseball is about taking risks. What’s the worst that can happen? If innings catch up to him then bring Garcia or Milwood into the rotation. Give the guy a chance to show what he is made of.