When Spring Training opens, most media coverage around the league tends to stress the “hope springs eternal” angle of the start of a new season. Every team has the opportunity to begin anew, and for at least a few weeks, all fans can dream that 2011 will be the year that their team is the last one standing.
In New York, however, the tone tends to be different. With the Yankees expected to contend every year, Spring Training is spent coming up with reasons to believe that the club will fail to meet the goals set for it by a demanding fanbase and relentless media members. The doubts about the club seem to be more prevalent this offseason than in years past, as some pundits do not even see this team fighting for a playoff spot, let alone a championship. Keith Olbermann’s screed in which he compares the Yankees and Mets qualifies as one such negative slant:
This team is going to compete with the Red Sox and Rays? This team is going to compete with the Blue Jays who off-loaded the Vernon Wells contract. This team is going to compete with the Orioles in their Buck Showalter Honeymoon Year.
Olbermann cites worries with Derek Jeter, the catching situation, and the rotation as reasons to be wildly concerned about the 2011 iteration of the Yankees. I do not want to get into each of these concerns, as I am sure you have heard plenty on these matters already and will continue to hear about them until the games begin and we get some answers. What I do want to try and ferret out is the underlying explanation for the pessimism that marks Olbermann’s article and has begun to spread amongst Yankees fans. Why are so many people down on the Yankees?
I think that the reasoning is obvious, and has little to do with the actual makeup of the team. Yes, the Yankees have flaws, but similarly flawed Yankee clubs made a number of postseasons in the mid-2000′s. The Yankees are coming off a 95 win season, and lost just one key member (Pettitte) while adding a number of solid secondary pieces (Soriano, Martin, Jones). For people to be doubting their ability to make the postseason requires something more than a roster with a few flaws. Rather, it is the way that the Yankees got to this point that has so many fans worried about their postseason prospects.
The Yankees began the offseason by getting embroiled in a contract dispute with Derek Jeter, a PR disaster that ended with a contract that was too long and a sour taste in the mouths of all the parties involved. Meanwhile, the Red Sox improved significantly by adding Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, establishing themselves as the likely division favorites.
Next, Brian Cashman declared pitching to be a priority, but Cliff Lee spurned the Yankees’ offer and chose Philadelphia, Zach Grienke went to the Brewers for a fairly underwhelming trade package, and any other legitimate option (Kuroda, Westbrook) went off the board too early for the Yankees to move or was Carl Pavano. When Andy Pettitte retired and the Yankees began taking shots on retreads, a rotation that was seen as a priority had actually gotten worse. As the final indignity, ownership decided that bolstering the bullpen would help ameliorate the rotation problems, which lead to Randy Levine overruling Brian Cashman in order to sign Rafael Soriano to an absurdly large 3 year deal.
The result of all of this? A roster that is still projected to win 90+ games, and that can contend for the division if AJ Burnett can bounce back to 2009 levels or if one of the youngsters/retreads can pitch well at the back of the rotation. Yet the way the Yankees got to this point was ugly and unsettling, with front office infighting, free agent disappointments, and battles with franchise legends marring the hot stove season. The uncomfortable nature of this offseason has led some to underrate the club and assume that these Yankees are not built to contend. A closer inspection of the team shows that perspective to be rooted in emotion and perception rather than reality, as the Yankees have not gotten significantly worse than they were in 2010. With Spring Training starting today, it is time to put aside the disappointments of the last few months and objectively look forward to 2011. It should be another exciting, contending season in the Bronx.
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26 Responses to Why So Down, Charlie Brown?
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On this note, PECOTA standings have the Sox at 92 wins and Yankees at 91. Those are not gospel, but they do help provide a range of likely performances. It is pretty clear that objectively, the Yankees project as contenders.
Sure, the back of the rotation is questionable but the lineup remains good enough to overcome many things.
Panic is not served here.
I think the 2011 Yankees are going to end up surprising a lot of people. Between bounce back performances from Jeter, Tex and A-Rod, along with perhaps some surprising effectiveness from whoever ends up pitching in the back-end of the rotation — in all honesty, are the contenders for the 4/5 slots so much worse than the folks employed by the Yanks at the back of the rotation from 2004 through the present day? I don’t think so — there’s no reason to be anything but optimistic.
I believe in Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova enough to think we can still be contending by June but I don’t feel we stand much of a chance in a short series in the post season as is, we will have to either make a trade at some point for a legit number 2 so Phil can slide into a more comfortable spot or stay as is and use this year as a buffer season to prepare young guys for the future. I don’t think the fans will ever allow the Yankees to try and “use” a year for anything but winning a WS title but if you can honestly tell yourself your not a championship caliber team but you also don’t want to throw away young prospects because your not far away from being injected with youth the smarter choice is clear.
To get a pitcher of the caliber or Josh Johnson or Francisco Liriano is going to cost any team but especially us an arm and a leg and I’m just not willing to trade for some lesser caliber arm just to say we tried when it would still cost us a Betances like chip for anyone of value, what team is honestly going to trade us anyone who can do anything (in the top 3 of a rotation) with asking for Montero first and then demanding some Big 3 B’s?
One major caveat to consider in this whole trade, don’t trade, debate is whether or not CC will opt out and it’s starting to sound like he is considering more than he had before and he has backed off some public statements made previously. I’m under the mind set that if he opts out we do what we should’ve done with Alex and just say “have a good life, hope someone pays you well but it won’t be us”.
We shouldn’t be forced into giving players more money and years just because they can, we have to set a precident that we won’t continue to get routed as we have in the past and this is step 1. I love Sabathia but if he opts out we walk away and hope he doesn’t go to the Phillies (is it even a joke at this point haha).
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Larry Koestler, moshetya. moshetya said: New post: Why So Down, Charlie Brown? http://bit.ly/ecQPaY [...]
I think Keith has let the idiocies of the conservatives he swipes on TV get to him to the point where, as the late baseball fan J.D. Salinger (I understand he did a little bit of writing, too — but only a little bit) would say he has “jaundice-colored glasses.”
Keith, take ‘em off, and enjoy the annual Pinstriped show. Lest ye be tagged with your own line: “Worst Person in the World!”
I love this website I’m a big fan of you moshe if you want you can follow me on twitter @yankeesfanbase….. Keep up your great work
Thanks for the kind words, I’ll be sure to check you out on twitter!
I think the Yanks have fallen back to the pack with Andy’s departure, but to argue that the Yanks aren’t even contenders is just absurd. What bothers me about this team is that the pitching is so dangerously thin, they’re an injury away from having a really ugly staff. And no, you can’t say that about the White Sox, Twins or A’s. I also am not so sure AJ will bounce back, his fastball has been declining for 3 years in a row.
BTW-If one of the young pitchers (Nova, Noesi, Warren, Phelps) is going to surprise to the upside, I think it will be Nova. The more I hear about him, the more I think he could be a mid rotation starter instead of a #5.
AJ doesn’t need more velocity, he was still averaging a decent fastball, not blazing anymore but 93 MPH and up regularly what he needs is to bring back the movement on his fastball and create more break with his curve. He was consistently on the side of the ball last year and he was always missing up with his fastball and leaving the curve hanging, he just needs to repeat his mechanics better (something he has always struggled with but more last year) if he does so he can get back to his 2009 form.
Good post. Also important to point out that the Yankees are likely to make some additions before the playoffs start. Currently, the lineup and bullpen look to be at or near the best in baseball. Adding one solid starting pitcher would be a huge boost (either via trade or if one of our prospects surprises to the upside). And by the way, the farm system is stacked. I recognize that the starting pitching has some question marks, but this looks to be a good team. One more starting pitcher would make this a very dangerous team.
Very good point. I’d very surprised if they didn’t acquire at least a middle of the rotation starter before the end of the year.
If we trade for a mid level starter I just hope we keep Betances, Banuelos, Montero and Sanchez out of any deal… I feel that we need a top flight starter to compete on a World Series level and if we can’t get that I would hope to keep the arms that might be the next top flight starter. With CC having an opt out on the horizon holding on to young, top potential starters is key for the future and with bats behind the plate like Montero and Sanchez on the most elite starter are worth that kind of trade scenario.
What a shame.
“With Spring Training starting today, it is time to put aside the disappointments of the last few months and objectively look forward to 2011. It should be another exciting, contending season in the Bronx.”
Truer words have never been spoken, Moshe. It’s just a shame too many Yankee fans are hung up on the last few months and can’t start looking forward.
So they didn’t get Cliff Lee, big deal. Dude didn’t want to come here so I’m OK with not getting him. The fact is they made the rest of the team (lineup, bench, bullpen) better in the offseason and return the most dangerous lineup in the AL. As long as the injury bug doesn’t bite too bad the Yanks are going to be just fine in 2011.
[...] newly forged The Yankee Analysts went over the pessimistic circumstances of the Yankees offseason here. Admittedly, I may have stolen a bit from their article; so be it. Basically, it’s not as bad [...]
I’m really excited to see what kind of year Granderson has this season, I can see a 30-20 season easily and a 30-30 isn’t out of the question. He should be more comfortable his second year with the team and with a full offseason and ST with the new mechanics could bode well for a player who had an .860 OPS in the second half.
Herr Olbermann knows even less about baseball than he “knows” about politics. If he were only half as smart as he believes, then he’d be running the world and the Yankees. Here’s something to think about. Pretend for a moment that all the Yankees players were free agents this past winter and the Red Sox had signed any player (excepting “role player/pitcher) away from the Yankees. The fans in Boston (plus ESPN) would be wetting themselves w/ excitement. I mean, really, the Yankees have the better team in all facets except the starters, and I can safely say that the Red Sox 5 will not be all that remarkable. The Sox are one of, if not the most brittle club in baseball. Oh, and who is their catcher? How about their great second baseman who has milion screws in his foot (and I do hope that Dustin makes a complete recovery, what a player!) Papi, Drew, Cameron, Ellsbury, Pedroia these are not players who are w/o serious health, age issues. What happened to that vaunted farm system that will be so useful come July? Oh yeah, they traded them for a first baseman coming off “minor surgery”, something that has been really glossed over. Hell, he can’t swing a bat until March. The teams that over the decades that I’ve learned to fear are the teams w/ money, quality position players, and a deep farm system. Sound familiar? Speaking as a 40 year Yankee fanatic, I believe that everyone has been brainwashed w/ the Big Stein mentality of ‘sitting 8 games in first by the end of May, then slowly pulling away’. The Yankees have plenty of guys that don’t run and hide when things get tough, and you never know how it’ll play out….. Relax, let’s not run for the Kool Ade just yet.
There is an argument that Adrian Gonzalez is already better than Tex will be going forward and in that park that likiehood only increases, I don’t know if that is true or not (I expect Tex to bounce back but Agon is really good so who knows) but it’s a toss up at the best.
Other than first I agree we have as good or better a player at each position of course that depends on how Youk bounces back and if Alex can get some of the thunder back.
Chris, I was taking into consideration that A-Gone’s shoulder may take longer to fully heal than the Sox are letting on….
Very nicely put Kevin.
Not a great start for Yankee Analysts to use a Keith Olbermann post. Who cares what he says about politics let alone baseball.
We used the post to criticize the way of thinking it represented. Not sure what the problem is.
Moshe, no problem here, I was just infuriated w/ reading his “Mr. Know it All” style. He’s a gasoline douche, IMHO.
Great post. And good look w/the new site.
I will admit to being a bit on the glum side but the beauty of the game is that it has to be played over 162 games. And this team can get the job done, albeit w/some tweaks down the road. I truly hope Jeter bounces back and AJ gets back in his groove; my 2 main concerns. At the end of the day, this roster may not be the one we are most comfortable with but, hey, at this point in 2010 no one pegged the Giants to be this year’s reigning World Champions, so…
maybe im dumb but…. tex>agon cano>pedroia jeter>scutaro arod>youk swish>drew grandy>ellsbury crawford>gardner ortiz>posada martin>salty cc&hughes=lester&buchholtz burnett=beckett matsusaka&lackey>yankees 4&5. yankees bullpen>red sox. so after all that player for player the only adv the sox have is ortiz, crawford and their 4&5 starters. this anayisis isn;t my opinion its a fact. so when we make a trade whats the nationally media and negative yankee fans gonna say then.
I’ll agree with what you’ve written, except I doubt that Ortiz will be better than Posada. This is the year for Papi to fall off a cliff….Oh, and we may have seen the last of Beckett being an “elite” pitcher…