RAB recently reported that the Yankees are still considering adding Kevin Millwood to the team’s 2011 rotation. For those who don’t know, Millwood was awful in 2010. Larry covered his performance earlier this year, but, in short, Millwood posted an 83 ERA+ over 190.2 innings, just about what the Yankees got from A.J. Burnett. In January Larry rightly dismissed Millwood as an unsuitable option for the back of the Yankee rotation because Kevin Millwood sucks.
Unfortunately, that was early January, when the Yankees had more time to address their back of the rotation issues. Now, it’s February. Spring Training has begun and, in his infinite wisdom, Brian Cashman has invited Mark Prior, Freddy Garcia and Krispy Kreme to camp. We know Kevin Millwood was bad in 2010 because he pitched in 2010, which is a lot more than we can say for those other guys. Are the Yankees right to consider him?
On any other team, the answer would be a resounding no. Why give a few million dollars and the ball to a pitcher whose career is clearly all but finished? On the Yankees, however, the math is different. No one thinks Millwood will be able to pitch well in 2011. The question for the Yankees is whether or not he can pitch adequately enough to keep the offense in the game until the bullpen can take things over. The Yankees don’t need a pitcher to be dominant. They only need him to last about six innings without giving up more than four runs. Can Kevin Millwood do that?
The data below are taken from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. They compare four pitchers: Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Edwin Jackson, and, of course, Mr. Millwood. The top set of data are the pitchers’ actual performances from 2010. The bottom set are the Bill James and Marcel projections for the 2011 season, taken from Fangraphs.
I’ve included Edwin Jackson because his name hasn’t come up recently as a possible trade target, but he’s a free agent after this season, isn’t as expensive an option as Mark Buehrle, and could be had in trade that allows the Bombers to keep their best prospects. Jackson is a Scott Boras client who may be looking for a big pay day at season’s end. If the White Sox are struggling mid-season, expect his name to come up in trade talks.
The first thing this table tells me is why the Yankees are taking a look at just about any present or former Major Leaguer with an arm and a pulse. The team is being dishonest when it says that Sergio Mitre is in the starting rotation. Maybe he’ll get the ball in a spot situation, but a viable starter needs to give a team about 175 innings, or 121 more than Mitre put in last year. He won’t make more than three consecutive starts, let alone take the mound every fifth day for six months. (The same cannot be said of Nova, who accumulated 187 total innings between the majors and AAA.)
The data also show why the Yankees are sniffing around Millwood. It’s not that they want Millwood on the team. Kevin Millwood doesn’t want himself on his own fantasy team. It’s that he fits the criteria outlined above: arm, pulse. Millwood managed to give the Orioles 190.2 innings of work last season over 31 starts. They were 190.2 innings of lousy work, but his aERA was 3.48 and his IPGS was 6.1. He’s actually projected to be a bit better next season but even if he were only to repeat his 2010 performance, the 2011 Yankee offense projects to have a slight lead, on average, when he would leave the game. As far as fifth starters go, the team could do worse.
If I were the Yankee GM, I would be inquiring about Edwin Jackson. Apart from being better than Millwood, his real asset is his age. 2011 will be his age 27 season. If he establishes that he can pitch on the Yankees then he may be a suitable, medium-term solution for the back of the rotation. If he bombs then the damage is limited because he’s not very expensive and the Yankees can let him walk at season’s end. He’s worth the phone call, to say the least.
The Yankees are entering the 2011 season with their weakest rotation since 2008, the year the team asked Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson to combine for 35 starts. The team also has about $35 million to spend, now that Andy Pettitte has retired and Cliff Lee is taking his talents to Philadelphia. This is why Brian Cashman has been handing out minor league contracts to just about anyone who wants one. He’s hoping he can make up for what he lacks in quality with quantity, rolling the dice on a large number of low-cost options, hoping one of them will turn into next year’s Aaron Small. With that in mind, everything comes down to cost and years. If Kevin Millwood can be had for one year and $5 million or less there is no reason not to sign him because it will be easy to get rid of him. As spring training begins expect the rumors linking the Yankees to crappy but available pitchers to increase. For my part, I’m hoping they can pry Jackson away from the White Sox. At least he has upside.
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13 Responses to Kicking the tires on Kevin Millwood and Edwin Jackson
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TIQ IQ
I don’t think Millwood’s pitching style fits Yankee Stadium very well, and I don’t see him as a major upgrade over the vets they have now. If Garcia flops in camp, I’d consider bringing Millwood in just to eat some innings.
Mike, while I think you make a sound case for why Millwood might make some sense, at this point I think the Yankees probably have enough way-past-their-prime vets to heighten the competition for the kids, and if Garcia/Colon or whoever can’t cut it, I’d just as soon give Noesi et. al. an opportunity.
You’d be asking an awful lot for a kid who has never pitched in triple A to start from the begining of the season in the Majors, it can be done but it would hard Noesi and really outside of Nova we have nobody who doesn’t need more time in the minors, I have a feeling Nova and Garcia will be fine but another Veteran arm at the right price helps with depth until the middle of the season when we can examine our options again.
If we’re going to try to make a case for Millwood and hark back to the glories of the 2008 rotation, then why not check in on Sidney Ponson at this point?
I agree with Larry. If Garcia and Colon flop (which is likely) then why waste time and money bringing in another old guy who’s going to suck just as bad? If you’re the Yankees and you’re looking at average performance at best from the 5th spot in the rotation, why not let a young guy like Noesi and Phelps give them that performance for cheap?
At the very least they can approximate what little value Garcia or Millwood would provide, and at most the Yanks get lucky and one of these young guys catches fire and produces above expectations. And in the middle of that they get to see what the kids can do and evaluate them as future pieces of the rotation or trade chips for later in the season.
Hi everyone,
Thank you for your comments.
I would prefer the Yankees either give the job to one of their younger prospects, or try to find an option with more upside as well. That’s why I included Edwin Jackson in the post.
However, I also see the team’s logic behind sniffing around a guy like Millwood. For the right cost, he serves as an adequate insurance policy that the team will have a back of the rotation starter, should everyone flop. He at least was a replacement level pitcher in the AL East in 2010.
Mike,
I agree with the Jackson idea. As young as he is, he would be a good get and wouldn’t cost any of the high-level prospects to do it.
As far as Millwood, the phrase “for the right cost” seems to be the biggest issue. Last I read, the dude still wanted 4-5 mil for this season, which is, IMHO, completely insane. If somebody told me I could have Kevin Millwood production for 4-5 million bucks or the same or better production from a Noesi or a Phelps for Minor League money, I’m taking option #2 without even thinking about it.
I agree, regarding Jackson. My hunch is that the Sox must be anxious to keep him, because I feel someone would otherwise be trying to trade for him. Althoug he was below average last year, he was only slightly below average. Beyond that he’s proven he can pitch 200+ innings of roughly ERA+ 100 ball. He’s due $6 million this year … Why not? At age 27 he could still blossom into a more reliable pitcher.
Regarding the 2nd point, I’d add the nuance of timing as well. It may not make sense to offer Kevin Millwood $4-5 million now, but if Spring Training is winding down and the Yankees don’t like what they’ve seen from their current internal options, that money may not seem like such a big deal, especially if it is the team’s last expenditure before the season begins.
I would add that no one in our minor leagues is going to pitch 190 innings this season no matter what happens an Millwood has done that in back to back years, I’m not endoresing Kevin I’m just saying that the options aren’t Millwood at 4-5 million vs Millwood’s production from a rookie or even rookies because I think he would probably have a better season than a kid who has never played before. That said I would offer Millwood 3 million if he made the team on a minor league deal with incentives up to 6 making sure he earns the money, put a million in him pitching 200 inning, a million in him having an under 4 ERA and another million for him winning a gold glove or placing in Cy Young contention. At worst he’d make 6 million and he could only do that if he pitched 200 innings with an under 4 ERA and won a GG or contended for Cy which he won’t do, obviously you’d probably have to add some little incentives too but those would be the highest paying ones.
I’ll take less than 190 innings from one of the younger Triple-A arms and then patch the rest together than take 190+ of what Millwood is going to give the Yankees, which is nothing. The guy sucks and he’s old. He sucked last year and he’s going to suck this year.
Everybody seems to be forgetting that the rotation the Yankees start the season with and end the season with doesn’t have to be, and most likely won’t be, the same 5 guys. All they need to do is do enough to stay in contention for a playoff spot until the trade deadline comes around and potentially more viable options present themselves.
The Yankees have been able to be contenders with a shoddy back end of the rotation before and this season shouldn’t be any different with the lineup and bullpen they have. And with all the raving about how deep their Minor League system is, sooner or later they are going to have to see what some of these kids can do, so why not make it this season?
I know I’m in the minority here, but I don’t want Kevin Millwood in a Yankee uniform ever. Not for 5 mil. not for 3 mil, not with incentives, and not without them. Not on a box and not with a fox. I do not want him, Sam I am.
Prior should not be lumped in with Garcia & Colon, because Prior is not attempting to comeback as a starter. There is no talk whatsoever of him starting. It’s been understood and written about all winter (and stated by Prior himself) that Prior’s comeback is as a reliever.
You guys might want to consider the offensive run support and the bullpen support that Millwood has had the last 3 years. He will give you 5 to 6 quality innings each game as he did 30 times last year. He has also pitched as the ace of the staff against other teams number 1 starter. I would give him 5 million in a minute to be the 5th starter.This will end up being the biggest bargain of the year!
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