Ken Rosenthal checked in with some very interesting news yesterday, stating that a source told him that Japanese sensation Yu Darvish is likely to be posted this offseason by the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish is just 24 years old, is considered a better prospect than Dice-K was, and reportedly can hit 96 on his fastball to go along with plus secondary stuff (h/t RAB for the scouting report). The question is, will the Yankees be interested in Darvish and how much will he cost?
In regard to the Yankees, I can only see them having interest if Andy Pettitte retires or they whiff on Cliff Lee. If they are able to sign Lee and Pettitte returns, there will be no rotation slot for Darvish at the major league level. I highly doubt the Yankees would make the financial outlay required to sign Darvish and then stash him at AAA for a season or stick him in the bullpen. If Pettitte retires, or if the Yankees are nervous about giving an older player like Lee a large deal and get outbid by another club for his services, I would expect them to be one of the frontrunners to acquire Darvish. While some might say that the Yankees should stay away due to the inconsistencies exhibited by other Japanese pitchers, I think that is silly. Scouts find Darvish to be the best prospect Japan has ever had, and it would be a bad idea to ignore him due to his nationality. If the Yankees believe in him as a pitcher, the failures of Kei Igawa should not alter that judgment.
As for the price, I think that it will be lower than many expect. I have heard numbers like 140 million, with 70 being for the posting fee and the remainder to sign Yu. However, I think the limited success of Dice-K, the last great Japanese import to the States, will make people wary about spending a ton of money on a guy who has yet to succeed against MLB competition. Additionally, it is important to remember that the Red Sox outbid everyone by 20 million for Dice-K. Unless there is a team that is desperate for Darvish, it is possible that most clubs use a lower number than the 51 million it took to “win” Dice-K as their baseline. Either way, this should be a fascinating story to keep an eye on as the offseason progresses.
Do you want the Yankees to pursue Darvish?
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21 Responses to Will The Yankees Pursue Darvish?
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TIQ IQ
Moshe, no room for Darvish (assuming that he’s as good as advertised)???!!! The Yanks biggest worry going into the playoffs is their starting pitching, so why is there no room?
Because CC, Lee, Pettitte, Hughes, and AJ will be on the team, and 4 wil be expensive, with 3 signed to longterm deals. That’s a ton of money for a guy who won’t have an immediate spot.
I personally don’t see any reason to take such a risk on a guy who has never been tested against major league competition in an MLB season and has 834.1 IP on his arm before even turning 24 years old.
Also the innings he has thrown haven’t just been taxing from the stand point that he has throw a tremendous amount for a young pitcher he has also had no real pitch limit in any of his games and has already surpassed the 140 pitch mark twice this season and the 130 pitch mark more than that.
I have checked in on Darvish throughout this year and last and while it seems most people believe he will be able to make a better transition than Dice K did no one knows exactly how good he will be and he will be paid like an ace. With those kinds of innings and the unknowns involved in how good he will be vs monetary value spent I say let someone else risk it.
if gene michaels tells the the yanks that darvish is the real deal, i would post 80 mil. What I have heard and seen, darvish is the best prospect in the world, better than chapman and maybe strasburg. that 80 mil would not count to the tax cap and his large Japanese following will cover the cost of the posting fee. wash! adv. yanks. then sign him for 60mil for 5 years.
I would also go after cliff lee even if we are spending big money on darvish.
Stick was a great scout for decades but he isn’t infallible. We have on record (on Francesa’s show) that he had also recommended Carl Pavano. He was also the driving force behind the acquisition of Vazquez and Brown after 2003. (His buddy Bill Madden reported it so I suspect it came from Stick before the roof caved in during the 2004 season) There’s no denying the importance of Stick in the construction of the Torre dynasty, but when the stakes are this high in terms of posting fee, I’d go the extra distance in terms of due diligence. So far it appears the Yanks are doing that as Oppenheimer and Billy Eppler saw him recently.
from the brown, pavano and vazquez, only the brown trade was a mistake that i would not do again. if pavano stayed healthy, he could have been a solid starter. people forget, vazquez was an allstar that year where he got an injury bug.
i named stick because he is a name-brand scout with the yanks. i really meant is so whoever the international yanks scouts are that believes darvish is the real deal, i would post big money for.
Fair enough. However it appears that Stick has been kicked upstairs as an “advisor.” He’s probably one among many senior consultants the organization retains. In fact I would not be surprised if Stick’s name is among the lower tier of people Cashman consults nowadays because Bill Livesey is back with the organization (He was a nemesis of sorts within the organization when Stick was the GM). Among Donnie Rowland, Oppenheimer (who was a protege of Stick earlier in his career), Eppler and Towers, I would be very surprised if Stick wields much influence within the organization.
As for their international scouts, IMHO their Latin American scouts (and Mexican scouts esp.) have been outstanding for years as they used to carry the water for the organization before Oppenheimer took over the amateur scouting. Rowland replaced Rios and he had a very good rep with the Angels. However, their Far Eastern scouts have been very inconsistent. Obviously scouting is more of an art than science, but other than CMW they’ve had some major problems. I don’t know what they’re going to do re: Darvish but whoever recommended Kei Igawa while overlooking Okajima (1.2 mil per which was an excellent buy for the Red Sox) should have been tarred and feathered by the organization. I don’t really have much faith in their scouting system in Asia yet. For a while they were sharing information with Yomiuri but that obviously was less than worthless given the Igawa posting and missing the boat on Uehara (really no excuse on this one).
“whoever recommended Kei Igawa while overlooking Okajima”
wasn’t that Mike Pagliurulo?
It’s impossible to tell although somebody in the front office “leaked” a copy of the fax that Pags had sent to the front office regarding his positive assessment of Igawa prior to the bidding submission. This was after that horrible post Pags had put up on Lombardi’s blog when he bashed Cashman for signing Igawa and “ruining” Hughes regarding his pitching mechanics. Hopefully they had taken into account some others into the decisionmaking process, but Pags came out of that looking like a fool at best and a hypocrite at worst.
I will say that while I am against the signing of Yu for the reasons listed above if the Yankees sign him I won’t be terribly upset, they have had scouts on this kid for upwards of 3 years now and if they have seen enough to feel good about him then I won’t pretend to know more than they do about the guy he just seems to carry significant injury and performance drop off caveats.
I agree. I too won’t be upset if the Yanks won the posting fee on Darvish. But they better sign him at that point… if i’m correct, there are no refunds for the posting fee. Its a double edged sword in that that money doesnt count against the team salary cap, but that money isn’t given back if Darvish decides not to sign.
Brackman looks like the best bet right now. Banuelos is still young and Betances’s injury history makes me hesitate to rely on him as a future starter. So at the end of the day, if the org leadership decides that the internal options to replace Vazquez (and/or Pettitte) aren’t to their liking, Darvish is a worthwhile investment.
p.s., another nail in the coffin to Joba Chamberlain’s starting pitcher career.
The killer B’s haven’t even seen any triple A time yet so I doubt any of the 3 are in line to make a start next year in the bigs if the organization can help it, sure they have all looked good this year but I think they each need at least a full year in triple A and they may be further away than that. I like Brackman but his walks are a concern for me long term, allowing 3.3 BB/9 in double A is cause for concern for his overall command. I actually think Betances is the best bet of the 3 to fulfill his potential IF the injuries are behind him, combined between double A and A this year he had a .88 WHIP, 5.6 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, 11.4 K/9 and a 4.91 BB/K ratio.
I was against paying more than $15 million for Dice-K. Looks like I was right. Dice-K actually had slightly better numbers than Darvish in Japan (K/9 and BB/9). The bottom line is that any un-Major League tested pitcher is worth only so much because 1) you can’t tell how their skill will translate and 2) injury risk after pitching in the majors for the first time. Chapman and Strasburg are perfect examples. If the Yanks can get Darvish for total cost of $15 million over 5-6 years, it’s a good risk given his talent. Otherwise, let someone else make the unwise gamble and spend the money elsewhere.
Except Darvish’s ERAs and WHIPs are better than Daisuke’s.
Much better in fact… Once you compare the 2 and then look at age Dice K is would be peanuts if they had been around at the same time.
If the Yankees sign Lee, it would be a poor use of organizational resources to pursue Darvish given the amount of pitching talent on the major and minor league club.
Bah – IMHO, MLB teams shouldn’t pay a “fee” of any sort. They can ask for a lot right now because it’s being paid. Hold out on them for two years and see that “fee” drop in half!!! Supply and Demand. Also, I would rather see them work with Nova and a few others coming up the ranks, or use the money to sign a Crawford or Lee.
In 2 years or so he would be an actual free agent capable of leaving…. The posting fee if because the team is allowing him to go to the MLB they have to get something back.
[...] -Moshe Mandel looks at whether or not the Yankees will pursue Yu Darvish. I agree that the only ways the Yankees go after Darvish are if Pettitte retires or if they choose not to pursue Lee (or he signs elsewhere.) [...]
Yes yu darvish is no 1.