Steve already covered the whole Joba to the bullpen debate this morning, so I am not going to rehash it. However, there was one portion of Joel Sherman’s article from this morning that needed to be addressed:
Because aren’t the 2010 Yanks much better if both Joba and Hughes are in the bullpen? Think about it.
As long as they have health with their main veteran starters — Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Javier Vazquez — the importance of a No. 5 man dims.
The No. 5 competition could be among Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre. The winner probably could pitch to a 5.00 ERA and still win in double digits because of the strength of the Yankees’ offense, but also because the No. 5 starter would be backed by a bullpen that had both Chamberlain and Hughes.
Manager Joe Girardi is very protective of relievers, anyway, and with both Chamberlain and Hughes available, he could continue on that path more comfortably while further diminishing the temptation to ever push Rivera into the eighth inning before the postseason.
Sherman later notes the primary reason that the Yankees would not do this, in that it would hurt the development of both pitchers and make them both question marks for 2011. Furthermore, if the Yankees have one injury during the regular season, the Yankees will either be forced to stretch one of the young guys out, always perceived as a dangerous move, or have a rotation with both Aceves and Chad Gaudin in it, a similarly precarious proposition. However, the issue I want to note here is this concept that the 5th starter slot is somehow less important than the other spots in the rotation.
5th starter is not a position or a role. It is simply the nomenclature used to describe the club’s 5th best pitcher. The 5th starter slot gets almost as many starts per season that the other slots get, and after the first few weeks, could be lined up against the #1 and #2 pitchers from other clubs. There is no reason to give up performance from the #5 spot just because the first four spots are adequately filled. In fact, considering that other clubs do not have 5 adequate starters, developing one in Joba or Hughes can create a competitive advantage for the Yankees relative to most AL clubs.
The Yankees should be working towards having their 5 best starters taking the ball on a regular basis. They simply need to look at this question not in terms of “the #5 starter against set-up man,” but rather in terms of “starter vs. one inning reliever.” Once you consider the issue in that framework, it becomes pretty clear that it makes sense to have one of the two young guns in the rotation, as having a good pitcher take the ball every fifth day is more important than adding a very good 7th inning reliever. The 2010 Yankees are not better with Joba and Hughes both in the bullpen.
Do you agree?
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14 Responses to The 5th Starter Fallacy (Joba AND Hughes To Pen?)
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Anyone who disagrees with this post is a moron.
I disagree…
“In fact, considering that other clubs do not have 5 adequate starters, developing one in Joba or Hughes can create a competitive advantage for the Yankees relative to most AL clubs.”
I love this line. Totally agree. If they cultivate either one as a bonafide number two or three, the Yankees are GOLDEN. That said, the only way the Yankees are better off would be if they had like Clayton Kershaw at number five, and since that isn’t going to happen then they aren’t better off.
I’m in favor of instating a “No Joel Sherman” policy on this blog.
Sadly, I think he is one of the better writers in NY.
I’m just tired of his constant “Joba to the pen” rehashing.
You’ve got to wonder whether Joel Sherman realized the far-fetched, groundless nature of this article in the midst of writing it, which led him to him debunking the idea at conclusion. Expecting Hughes to pitch out the ‘pen for most if not ALL of next season is bad enough to stomach.
It’s pretty simple, Joel, you want your best pitchers to throw as many innings as possible. Putting two promising starters in the bullpen only limits their value. Thought that was pretty much common sense..
Ditto what’s already been said here. Both pitchers is the ‘pen is ridiculous.
It amazes me that the bullpen discussion still happens. Radar gun readings alone are not a good enough reason to relegate Chamberlain and/or Hughes to short-relief duty and yet we hear all the time how those guys are better off as relievers based on the MPH boost to their fastballs…
In the same way that lots of folks got tired of talking about the Damon situation and who our LF would be, I’m exhausted by the Joba (and now Hughes) to the bullpen topic. We know the right answer and to think differently is either moronic or stubborn.
In my opinion as long as Joba doesn’t completely blow up this spring he should be headed to the rotation. He has been working for the last couple of years to finally get ready to start a full season and giving up now would be a mistake. Why make Joba take a step back? Especially when you consider the Yanks are now trying to limit payroll expenditures, the only way I see them doing this and competing at a high level is to use their assets properly. Hughes and Joba should both at some point start. A front line starter is expensive compared to a setup man.
Totally Disagree, I hope Joba and I think he will ,pitches his way into the top 3 of the rotation this year. Yanks are not better with Hughes and Chamberlain in the pen. You give the 5th starter job to one of the three guys he mentions.. you erase so much of the pitching depth.
Gotta let the kid’s grow, Injuries will happen and both of these guys will get there fair share of time in the rotation, with one being there more than the other.
My prediction is that Joba wins the Job out of ST and rolls at least through his first 160 IP.. well see what happens after than,. Phil will get to start as soon as the injuries come.. you can bank on someone spending a fair amount of the season on the DL
Yeah that idea is rediculous for regular season. Needless to say unless one of them is absolutely lighting it up as a SP in reg season they both will be in the bullpen for the post season
” It was impossible to ignore, and the Yankees didn’t ignore it.
Words were not needed. Joba Chamberlain’s body language screamed confidence and the scoreboard flashed 97 mph. Here at the end of his most taxing season, Chamberlain was a strutting fire-breather again. In the postseason. As a reliever.
The difference from the starter who too often was tentative and too frequently throwing fastballs at 89-91 mph was stark. As one Yankees official noted recently, “It was hard to miss.”
The dumbest part of the article was the open. So let me get this straight, the Yanks have decided that Joba is a reliever based on his performance in the World Series, because the Yanks make decisions based on these small samples. Which begs the question, why did they let the WS MVP (Matsui) walk? He’s clearly the best player in Baseball ‘in da big spot’ right?
Whoever the ‘Yankee official’ was that he was talking to, it wasn’t Brian Cashman or Girardi, and therefore doesn’t matter.
We can count on you to put the finial touch on it…good, and thanks!
Last line was great!