The easy answer is shown above, but as a Catcher who’s turning 38 this year we’ll need a plan B. That’s where it gets to be an interesting debate.
First, let’s establish who our 1-4 hitters are. There shouldn’t be much debate about this:
1-Derek Jeter
2-Nick Johnson
3-Mark Teixeira
4-Alex Rodriguez
Nick Johnson’s the #2 hitter, no matter who you want in the 5 hole. You want his 420 OBP (last year) to get as many ABs as possible, and the stuff about him ‘clogging up the bases’ is silly with the equally slow footed Mark Teixeira hitting behind him. Even if Tex makes out and Alex gets on base, Johnson’s speed still won’t be much of an issue because Alex doesn’t run much anymore since having hip surgery. Johnson will be the #2 no matter who you plug into the #5 spot in the order. You want ducks on the pond (Ugh, I hate that expression) for your big bats to drive in, and he gets on base as well as anyone in Baseball. Johnson’s excessive patience is more suited to batting in front of your run producers than behind them. When Jeter raps a single, Tex strikes out and Alex hits a double, you’re not looking for a walk. Especially if the batter behind him is someone like Curtis Granderson and there’s a Lefty on the mound. You want someone who will swing the bat and drive those men on base home.
Jorge Posada will be the team’s first choice to protect A-Rod. A switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, he’s the ideal candidate. He also has enough patience to extend the inning for someone like Cano, who hits Righties and Lefties equally well and likes to swing the bat. But at this point in Jorge’s career, it’s reasonable to expect some drop off in production. Last season his walk rate declined and Strikeout rate rose, which often signals a hitter’s bat is slowing down. Some decline slowly, while others fall off a cliff. It’s impossible to know which category Jorge falls into, and it’s also possible last year’s decline was the result of injury and he’ll return to form this season. Possible, but I wouldn’t bet the rent on it.
My first choice after Jorge would be Robbie Cano, but it’s one I have trepidations about. The Yanks have tried in the past to put Robbie in the #5 hole when other players were injured, and he didn’t fare well. He maintained his batting average but his OBP and SLG declined, which tell you he changed his approach. He’s also had all sorts of trouble in high leverage situations over the course of his career. But I like the skill set he brings to the 5 hole and I’ll chalk those numbers up to young player who is learning the league and trying to fit in. He’s at an age (27) where he should be entering his prime, and I’ll assume that he will learn to relax in those spots as many players do.
Curtis Granderson would be another candidate for the 5 spot in the lineup, but a distant 2nd choice in my view. His power and swing should play well in Yankee Stadium, but his stark platoon splits are begging for the opposing manager to bring in a LOOGY in late inning situations. That will be tough to live with, and as the team is currently constructed we don’t have a suitable option on the bench to plug in for those situations, though I believe that will change by the time April rolls around.
Those are my choices, but who would you bat 5th? Anyone want to make the case for Nick Swisher?
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5 Responses to Who's Our #5 Hitter?
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TIQ IQ
We don’t have one, I’d vote Granderson though.He’s in his prime not far removed from hitting .302 a few years back and I’d rather he struck out than watch Jorge hit into into 100 double plays. Granderson could hit 30 dingers and bat .280 in Yankees line up with some speed on the base paths.
I don’t trust Cano because of his lack of selectivity.
Swisher does walk and does hit for power but he’s helpless when in a funk.
Frankly, I think I’d rather bat Granderson 3rd and Tex or A-Rod 5th but that will never fly.I really think Granderson will strike out less in YAnkee Stadium because it’s so much easier to reach the seats in April/May/June than in Detroit.
Curtis Granderson is my pick too. Otherwise, the bottom part of a Gardner-inclusive lineup would be really lefty based. After Arod, I’d say Granderson-Posada-Cano-Swisher-Gardner. Cross your fingers and hope Granderson hits 40 home runs in Yankee Stadium.
You guys highlight my biggest fear about Granderson. He is a moderately powerful lefty that strikes out a lot. If he gets goo-goo eyes at the right field porch like idiot-boy Giambi, we will have wasted a huge move. I would much rather see him driving doubles to left than rolling outside stuff to second base. If Kevin can get thru to him he’ll hit .300 with 20-25 homers and be huge. If not, look for .230 with 32 homers and 200 Ks.
I third the idea of Granderson; I also would love to see Cano be in there. Part of this is my personal anti-Posada bias; I think he grounds into way too many double plays and due to his day offs the lineup just wouldn’t be consistent. Also, as Steve said, the age of Jorge just adds to the risk.
If you signed Damon, you could slot him into the 5 spot, or you could put him two and put Grandy 5 and NJ at 9. In other words, until we figure out who the left fielder is, I don’t think we can settle this debate. Let’s face it, there IS still a chance, albeit not a great one, that Holliday, Damon, Bay, Dye, etc… could be in the lineup (some of those options are more likely then others).
How about Posada vs lefties and Granderson vs righties? Posada has better splits against lefties. If Granderson does continue his trend against lefties and managers are successfully taking advantage of it late game, then Posada would have to step in permanently. Swisher is too erratic and Cano needs low stress ABs.