SG of RLYW today shows us what we might be able to expect of Phil Hughes, starting pitcher, in 2010.
While most Yankee fans would probably saw their left foot off for a 2.61 ERA over 137 innings of starting pitching from Hughes, he obviously isn’t going to be quite that good. Still, the potential remains for Hughes to be a top-tier starting pitcher, and as much of a revelation as he’s been out of the bullpen, he can build on that dominance next year and be even more valuable to the team in an extended role.
From everything I’ve read, it sounds like the Yankees are thankfully still on board with sending Hughes back to the rotation next year, although that decision likely will be impacted depending on how deep the Yankees go into the playoffs. If they win the World Series with Hughes playing a critical role in relief, the cries from B-Hughesers will grow ever louder this offseason.
However, I have faith that the organization understands that good starting pitching beats good relief pitching all day every day, and fully expect to see #65 toeing that rubber for 6-7 innings every five days next year.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
6 Responses to This one’s for the B-Hughesers
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Come on, no way he comes in with a 2.60 ERA. Replacement Level is crazy.
I know this is for the sake of entertainment, but isn't the much more important question what to expect from Joba in 2010? Hughes is maybe the 5th starter, while Joba is definitely the 4th starter. And, you may not have noticed, but he didn't exactly close the year out on a high note.
I agree that Joba is definitely a pressing concern for 2010, but given that he should more or less be free of innings limits — I think his cap is close to 200 IP next year — combined with having a full year of starting under his belt will hopefully enable him to grow into the elite starter we know he's capable of becoming.
Come on, no way he comes in with a 2.60 ERA. Replacement Level is crazy.
That's not what the post is saying. All it's saying is this is what Hughes's 2009 looks like if we convert his relief line to a starter's line using the average of how pitchers who have pitched in both roles have done.
To actually project Hughes's 2010, you have to use all the data you have for him going back a certain amount of time, usually at least three years, although I use four. You also have to factor in some regression towards the mean and adjust for age.
Right now, I'd project Hughes 2010 to have an ERA of 4.27 as a starter, not 2.60.
Thanks for clarifying, SG.
It appears my excitement at the prospect of Hughes returning to a starting role interfered with my ability to accurately read your post.
No problem Larry, I don't think I made that point clearly in the original post anyway.
Not to say I won't hope for Hughes putting up a 2.60 ERA.