. . isn’t it? We all know the new Yankee Stadium in leading all of Baseball in Home Runs allowed this season, and the Yanks are #2 only to Texas in HRs as a team. The Park Factor for HRs is 1.430, which leads all of Baseball in that category. So I think we can safely call the new place a bandbox, and just admit the place is a joke with the way it gives up Home Runs.
But there’s just one problem. Those stats I just cited are from 2005, not 2009. Yes, the old venerable ballpark led all of Baseball in HRs allowed just a few short seasons ago. It was actually MORE of a bandbox that year than the current facility, with a HR Factor of 1.430 wheras the new facility stands at 1.320. Further, if we estimate the annual number of Home Runs based on how many have been hit so far this year (as of 8/10) the Yanks should hit about 243 HRs for the season. In 2004, the Yankees hit 242 HRs as a team. How is this possible?
Turns out that Park Factors and Home Runs vary wildly from season to season. Here’s a list of the recent Yankee Stadium HR numbers, from the old facility to the new:
Year-HR Park Factor-Ranking
2001-1.069-13th
2002-1.254-8th
2003-0.994-17th
2004-0.776-27th
2005-1.430-1st
2006-1.023-13th
2007-1.181-6th
2008-0.982-16th
2009-1.374-1st
A quick and easy explanation would be same park, but different team playing in it. But varying weather patterns could play into it as well. The Yanks certainly have good hitters up and down the lineup, but the 103 Home/73 Away for 2009 tells us that clearly the new facility has been more friendly to the Yankee lineup when they’re at home. Comparing that to other seasons, the Yanks posted a 107 Home/94 Away in 2007, a 111 Home/99 Away in 2006 and a 126 Home/116 Away in 2004. So the Yanks will often hit more dingers at home than they do on the road, but clearly the spread is bigger this year than it has been in years past.
So while the new facility is clearly playing small, it’s FAR too soon to say if this is related to the facility itself, or just another seasonal statistical anomaly. We will need a few years of data to make that assertion one way or the other.
NOTE-A very happy birthday to the Melk man, who turned 25 yesterday.
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0 Responses to The New Stadium's a Bandbox. . .
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TIQ IQ
Very interesting, nice work Steve. Now please email this to every beat writers in the NY area. lol
Hype it up, my friend.
Yeah, but I also think that steroids are being used less now than they were back in 2005, so maybe that affected the results.
It shouldn’t. Park factor is a stat that tells you how the ballpark plays relative to the league. If home runs are down everywhere due to players getting clean, it should not affect the relative difference between parks.
Right, so if steroids were an issue, HR’s should be up everywhere.
Just to be clear, I’m not disputing that the new stadium is playing small. I’m simply saying the old park played small as well, and these things tend to vary from year to year.
I’m hoping they will do something to cut back on some of the cheap HRs, that really should be doubles. I’m also amazed at just how many balls have JUST cleared the Right field wall that was brought in a few feet when they eliminated the curvature of the wall this year. Maybe they could add a few feet of plexiglass on top of the current wall, call it a safety feature for fans and tell the league its part of the wall.
The park may play as a pretty extreme home run park, but it only plays to slightly above average for total runs.
Right, the overall park factor has been about 103 for the past few months, wheras it was 105 earlier in the year. Fenway has been 105 for the past 5 seasons. 103 is consistent with the old ballpark. Someof that may be weather patterns, but I’ll bet most of it is pitchers making adjustments.
I bet if you look at the quality of the Yankee pitching staff before this year and the relative ranking on that list, it would follow it pretty closely. I’m not disputing the notion that it’s a varying thing but this year we actually have a pretty decent pen and rotation.
In 2005 we got starts from a 39 year old Al Leiter, too many from a 41 year old Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Tanyon Sturtze, Darrell May, Sean Henn, Tim Redding and Jaret Wright. On top of that you had A-Rod, Sheffield and Giambi at their peaks.
The fact that this year guys like Cano, Damon, Jeter and Melky are on pace for career highs I think says a lot.
Has anyone looked at the Yankee-opponent ratio? It seems like we’re the ones who hit all the homeruns, lets face it this lineup is stacked…these players would have citifield in the running for bandbox possibility…(k, slight exaggeration)I’m not sure if ur numbers include last night but wouldn’t that give the Yankees 103 homers at home and our opponents 79? Hitting 24 more homers than any team thats comes in here, with that margin probably only likely to expand seems to indicate it has alot to do with our team being singularly awesome at both hitting and pitching no?
Can one of you guys please go post this over at the Lohud blog. Pete Abraham is once again harping on the stadium giving up homeruns, someone please give him a reason to stop.
Okay so someone did the work I was too lazy to do….at LOhud of all places :) interesting stuff…
HenryfromBaltimore
August 12th, 2009 at 9:04 am
At home this year, the Yankees have hit 105 homers to the opponents 77. That ratio is 1.34. Last year, the Yankees hit 92 versus 68. That ratio is 1.35. There have been more homers, but this shows the Yankees do not have an advantage playing there more. To me, this is a non-issue.
I’m sick of opposing pitchers saying, “It was popup that went out.” Well, any homer is a popup that went out in any park.
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this is a great statistic. NYS yields 15% more Home Runs than OYS, that’s it. OYS gave up 1.98 HR’s per game last year so there is One more Home Run per 3.33 games this year divided between the Yankees and their opponents. I haven’t checked the overall MLB statistics between 2008 and 2009 (you would have to do this to normalize the data) so this is an incomplete analysis.
Based on this, though, it’s a non factor, period.
I still think the best way to look at which balls simply wouldn’t have made it out in last year’s park. For instance, Jorge’s last night wouldn’t have been out in almost any other park including the old place. I’d say the new place probably has contributed about 20 homers thus far
I don’t see it as a big deal… does anyone else? It’s a home park advantage for us just because we know where to hit the ball, but everyone who comes in can hit just as many HRs and we can get them right back.. the Yankees are a good left handed offense in a good left handed hitting park.