Eric Seidman at FanGraphs has a great read up in which he assesses Carlos Beltran’s underlying value to the Mets. In the end, the findings are very clear — offensively and defensively, Carlos Beltran is a terrific baseball player. In fact, from a contractual standpoint, even though he was awarded a 7-year deal worth $119 million following his 2004 season, he’s actually being underpaid (average annual value) in relation to his win value.
Now, in 2004, Scott Boras actually called the Yankees and offered Beltran to them at a discounted price (so, less than the $119 million). However, wary of the luxury tax implications, the team decided to upgrade their pitching staff instead, as they acquired Randy Johnson.
In 2005, Johnson had a good year with the Yankees while Beltran barely produced for the Mets. I’m sure fans would have been disappointed in the Beltran over Johnson decision, if it had occurred (at least in that year). Nonetheless, Beltran would have been the better long-term investment, since he has produced ever since the first year of his mega-contract.
Right now, I think the decision haunts the team. Currently, Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera are both vying for CF. Imagine what the team would have looked like if they had avoided the Johnson move and signed Beltran (and at a discount)? They’d be in a much better place today (offensively and defensively). Hindsight — it’s a killer.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
13 Responses to The Beltran Haunting
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
For that matter, Johnson was not that good in the first season. It was the right choice at the time, if they had to choose one, being that they needed an ace a lot more than a hitter. With the benefit of hindsight, obviously it was the wrong move.
Actually, looking at the numbers, he was pretty good that first year. I guess his coming up small in big games clouded my memory.
Ha, yea. It’s a good topic, actually. That’s a perception that most people have of the guy. He may not have been worth the $16 mill we paid him, but he definitely had a good year.
You know, I wonder about that perception of Johnson’s 2005. I’ve always wanted to write something about it but I haven’t done so, for whatever reason. In ’05, he pitched 225 2/3 innings (5th in the AL), he had a 8.42 K/9 (4th in the AL), a 3.79 FIP (8th in the AL), 17 wins, and he was second in the league in strikeouts. I actually think that was a very successful year for him and the team (at least in terms of the regular season). He was also the only guy on the staff to pitch 200+ innings, too.
I was crushed when the Yanks decided against signing Beltran. Being from PR I had followed him his whole career. There aren’t many players that can change a game the way he does, even when he’s not swinging the bat well.
Agreed- that was the one reason you could have argued that he was more important than Johnson. Legit 5 tool guys like Beltran never see free agency, and when they do, maybe you grab them, even if your lineup is fine at the time.
not to be forgotten either, Dioner Navarro would still be a Yankee too. And if we signed Beltran, the 2005 draft choice that would have been forfeited would have been the great Carl Henry… boy, hindsight is sure 20/20.
I forgot about Navarro. He’s not a star, but he sure is useful. Henry… yuck.
Some Los Metros fans and myself got into a spirited debate over Robbie Cano and Jose Reyes. I know better not too argue with a Met fan but this opportunity proved to be irresistible. The reason being is that these Met fans have a history of stupidity barring moronic Yankee comments. They feel that Jose Reyes is a superstar. I agreed. They stated that Robbie Cano is on the decline and is an average 2nd baseman. That is where I threw the bomb at them. I stated that Reyes was indeed a superstar, and probably more important to the Mets than Cano is to the Yankees. In fact Reyes is an overall better player without a doubt. The argument was stupid to begin with as they play different positions. They are the same age though and I felt like tweaking these idiots. So I than stated that even though Reyes is better overall I feel that Cano does have a better bat. He is a better offensive player. His Batting average is better, his yearly rbi, and HR average is better. His slugging percentage is better. In fact his On Base percentage is equal which amazed me. I than stated I would rather have Cano at the plate as a hitter than Reyes. To this a large argument ensued where Met fans felt I was attacking there legend. Look at the numbers, the facts are right there. Cano career at bat has been better so far with 1000 less plate appearances than Reyes. Numbers do not lie my fellow Yankee fans!
I’d take Reyes over Cano, simply because of Reyes can do a lot of things Cano simply can’t. It’s true that Cano has more power, but I do think that’s his only advantage. Also, remember, Reyes hits at the top of the order, making it difficult for him to drive in a ton of runs whereas as Cano hits at the very bottom of the Yankee lineup.
If we’re going to play the “what if” game, Johnny Damon would still be Red Sox, or would have been until his free agency this year, Sox offered him 3 years on 05. Would Damon’s bat have made a difference vs the Rays? Possibly, Game 2 was decided by 1 run and games 6 and 7 by 2 runs each. So if the Red Sox signed Damon, its conceivable they would have had their 3 WS berth in the past 4 seasons.
BTW-The Yanks were “Wary” not “Weary”. They were cautious, not exhausted.
Damon wasn’t willing to accept a lesser deal, though, which is why he’s with the Yankees. If he was willing to take on a discounted offer, then he would be with the Sox — but he didn’t. That’s the main difference. Beltran was willing to accept a lesser deal if he could join the Yankees (Joe Torre thought it was because Beltran didn’t want to be a go-to-guy).
Ha, thanks for the spelling clarification. I always do that, argh.
The Teixeira situation, in a way, shows Cashman has learned from Beltran. They are both very solid, good defenders, who are very good all-around players but not really superstars; they both filled a clear need for the Yankees, and they were both guys that everyone liked, but wondered whether you should give superstar-type money to. Maybe Cash took a second look at Tex based on the Beltran scenario going bad, and felt that it was good to fortify a position for a long time while he had the chance, because that chance might not come around again soon. Cash makes some bad moves, but I do like how he tends to learn from mistakes and change his tactics to take advantage of changing times and evolving philosopies.