In Matt’s post yesterday, he added a “disclaimer” regarding projections such as Marcel, PECOTA, CAIRO, and ZiPS upon my request:
Projections assume performance by players will tend to regress towards the mean, such that there will be a smaller spread between good and bad performances. Therefore, some players at the top end may be [...]
As the baseball season progresses into the dog days of August, it becomes difficult to avoid looking ahead to the playoffs. To be sure, this is risky business. Any number of things could intervene to prevent the leading teams from reaching the postseason, like catastrophic injuries or unforeseen hot streaks from teams only on the fringes of [...]
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One frequent complaint of baseball fans attempting to quantify the performance of relievers is the lack of a metric that provides an adequate representation of how a reliever impacts the game. ERA is faulty for players who frequently enter with runners on base, and other stats like [...]
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Earlier this week, Fangraphs added John Dewan’s +/- defensive stats to their player pages, a major addition that gives users the two most widely accepted defensive measures (UZR and +/-) in one place. +/- is on a similar “runs saved” scale to UZR, so the two numbers [...]
Steve Lombardi was one of a handful of bloggers who answered questions from the NY Times Bats Blog about the upcoming season, and the following statement caught my eye:
Considering the ultimate price tag ($8 million for one year), it may have been the prudent move to bring Damon back for a year. But, [...]
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We have been bandying about the various options that the Yankees have at 5th starter for a while now, and I thought it might be interesting to add some numbers to the discussion. I asked people on Twitter to provide projections for each player in each role, [...]
In 2009, the Yankees won 15 games in their last at bat. That’s a lot of games that could’ve gone either way, but because of a few things, they went the Yankees’ way. A lot of it is the fact that the 2009 Yankees were an incredible hitting team and that allowed them to rarely [...]
Matt wrote an excellent post this morning about bringing statistics into the mainstream, and I think Chris began to follow through on that with his fascinating post on breaking down UZR. Both posts illustrated that fans now have more information at their hands than ever before, and that we can educate ourselves about [...]
This morning, John Sickels posted an article in which he suggested that sabermetric analysis has become too granular to be interesting and fresh:
The newest stuff is becoming so granular that I’m having problems making sense of it. I’m a humanities guy, and the most advanced math is beyond my ability to completely comprehend. [...]
Steve at Was Watching poses the following question:
Since July 8th, Phil Coke has pitched in 18 games for the Yankees – throwing 13.6 IP and facing 61 batters. In the process, he’s allowed 22 base runners. His ERA during this time is 9.22 and the opposing team’s BA/OBA/SLG line is .315/.377/.519 (against him).
[...]
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