We’re finally days away from Spring Training. Soon enough, the waiting will be over and we’ll be able to watch REAL LIVE BASEBALL (shameless plug time: if you’re in the NYC metro area, you should totally come to this). But, before we get to that, let’s take another look at some run scoring [...]
Today we arrive at the American League preview that many of you are probably the most eager for: the 2011 Boston Red Sox.
Despite a series of injuries so vast many considered the team dead in the water when the news finally broke in August that Kevin Youkilis would miss the rest of [...]
In Matt’s post yesterday, he added a “disclaimer” regarding projections such as Marcel, PECOTA, CAIRO, and ZiPS upon my request:
Projections assume performance by players will tend to regress towards the mean, such that there will be a smaller spread between good and bad performances. Therefore, some players at the top end may be [...]
A couple of weeks ago we looked what CAIRO, the projection system, had to say about the Yankees bench. Now we’ll take a look at PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’s projection system. Keep in mind that these numbers ARE park adjusted.
LASTNAME FIRSTNAME BATS POS PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG Jones Andruw R CF 455 [...]
During the offseason I had a few words for the good people who run Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system. In short, while every other projection system predicts a first-place Yankee finish, PECOTA projects a third-place, not-in-the-playoffs finish. Also, BP has constantly updated its forecasts, apparently to rip off anyone who [...]
Oh happy day. SG’s 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout for both the AL and NL was posted yesterday. For those unfamiliar, this is an aggregate of five noteworthy projection systems, run 1,000 times each for a total of 5,000 iterations.
The Yankees unsurprisingly project to be the best [...]
The bulk of my recent posts have criticized Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA projections for the 2010 season. In short, I don’t agree. But, to paraphrase my sister, anyone can hate but it takes a real (stupid?) man to put it on the line. So, I’m putting my money where my mouth is and [...]
Readers of this site know that not too long ago Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2010 end-of-season standings. While the CAIRO and CHONE projections had the Yankees finishing as the top team in all of baseball, BP originally forecast the Bombers to miss the playoffs entirely.
Last week, I noted that I would hold off on commenting on PECOTA until they worked out the kinks in their system. As of Monday, they seem to have done so, such that this is likely to be the last update for a while, until clubs themselves begin to figure out how they are [...]
Recently I posted a criticism of Baseball Prospectus’ prediction for the 2010 Yankees. That piece ran before BP updated its projections [...]
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