In my last two pieces talked about building the lineup. To quickly test the potency of these lineups, I ran them through the lineup analysis tool from Baseball Musings. I used the PECOTA and ZiPS projections to get the players’ OBP/SLG. Remember, though, these projected OBP/SLG numbers are NOT split adjusted. Here are the results:
This lineup projects to score 4.874 R/G, which translates to about 790 runs over the course of a 162 game season.
Using PECOTA and Juan Rivera as the, DH, the Yankees project to score 4.840 R/G, about 785 per 162 games.
Using Matt Diaz at DH, we get 4.805 R/G, which is about 779 runs over 162 games.
ZiPS is a little more friendly to the Yankees, projecting 4.974 R/G. That would push the Yankees over the hump to about 806 runs per game.
This gets us 4.887 R/G, about 792 for the season. Again, ZiPS is a little more friendly than PECOTA.
Last but not least, we get 4.831 per game, 783 over the course of the season.
So these projections, which are NOT split adjusted, give us somewhere between 785-805 runs for the Yankees. Those are perfectly reasonable, but they do sell the Yankees short a bit. Both are probably a bit conservative and the fact that they’re not split adjusted affects the output in the analysis tool. Certainly, e can expect certain players (Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira, Juan Rivera, and Matt Diaz) to hit better against lefties than their overall projections while we can expect others (Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, and Travis Hafner) to do the same against righties. The Yankee offense has never been flawless, but this season, there do seem to be a few more flaws than there have been in the past. Remember, though, offense has been down in the last few years. Despite the fairly conservative projections, the Yankees have a chance to be a top offensive club, as they always do.
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One Response to Piecing it Together: Part Three
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TIQ IQ
There is WAYYYYYY too much emphasis on the hitting on here, Yankee Lohud, and most other sites.
The Yankees have the deepest pitching in the league and more than enough talent to land at least a #3 starter.
For instance, the bullpen is already 6/7ths set with Rivera, Robertson, Logan, Chamberlain, Aardsma, and Rapada.
The Yanks just acquired Shawn Kelley to give them at least THREE viable options for the last slot in the bullpen: Kelley, Phelps, and Eppley. How many teams can boast that?
The Yanks have one of the only three true aces in the league in Sabathia, the other two being Verlander and Hernandez. Kuroda is one of the best #2 starters if not the best #2 starter in the league. Pettitte and Hughes are a dual #3. Nova got slapped around quite a bit last year but he did increase his strikeouts from 98 to 153. I’d say he’s a #4 at best and a #5 at worst and what’s wrong with that? You can’t have a #3 or better quality starter in every rotation slot like you can’t have a .270/.350/.450/.800 or better hitter in every batting slot.
Which brings me to the offense. The Yanks could use some offense at catcher, sure, but I don’t see it as a make-or-break thing. If you tripled Chris Stewart’s 2012 stats, he would’ve had 39 RBI in under 500 plate appearances, only 14 less RBI than 2012 Martin. Hafner is perfectly capable of matching 2012 Ibanez’s HR and RBI and bettering Ibanez’s slashline which was putrid. Diaz is perfectly capable of slapping at least 10 HR. I think the 10-12 homeruns the Yanks lose in RF with Ichiro there will be more than made up for by his stolen base total and defense and who says he coudn’t post .285 BA and .350 OBP to go with 30 SB and 5-7 OF assists? Youkilis is perfectly capable of matching or bettering 2012 A-Rod’s HR, RBI, and slashline. Teixiera posted only 24 HR and 84 RBI last season. If he rebounds, I think we’re looking at 34 HR and 104 RBI from him (10 HR, 20 RBI improvement) which could make up for some the loss of Martin’s HR if the catchers combined for 7 HR (10 more HR Teix hits + 7 the Cs hit = 17 HR, only 5 less than 2012 Martin/Stewart.)
‘Bottom line is the Opening Day roster is not the final one a bat or two in midseason and the Yanks will be a powerhouse.