*My apologies to Bill Shakespeare for the title.
There were conflicting reports this morning about the status of Ichiro Suzuki and the Yankees. One report from Japan claimed he signed a one-year deal worth $5M plus incentives while writers here in the States said the Yankees and Ichiro haven’t even discussed a deal yet.
Frankly, it was amusing to see the varying reactions to both news items.
Some people were admittedly excited when the news surfaced of a deal between Ichiro and the Yankees. After batting .261/.288/.353/.642 in 95 games for the Mariners, he was revitalized after the trade to New York and played like the All-Star he once was batting .322/.340/.454/.794 in 67 games. His wRC+ was 90 and his wOBA .300 for the whole year (both teams combined).
Those people who are gung-ho about an Ichiro signing obviously feel that he can sustain the level of play he managed to eek out in those final 67 games of the season with the Yankees.
Other people weren’t too jazzed about the idea of an Ichiro signing. Those particular folks seem to be envisioning a worst-case scenario in which Ichiro’s 2013 morphs into Andruw Jones‘s 2012 campaign, which in case you don’t remember, was not very pretty. But if you look at some numbers, Jones and Ichiro weren’t that far apart. While Jones’ slash line, in particular, was a sad sight .197/.294/.408/.701 in 94 games, his wRC+ and wOBA, were 86 and .306 which is very close to Ichiro’s 90 and .300.
It’s actually a good thing that Ichiro picked things up in his time with the Yankees because a .300 wOBA isn’t good, in fact it’s classified as poor while a .310 is below average. And at .306 that makes Andruw Jones slightly better in that category.
So yes, the Yankees will be old if Ichiro re-signs but they’re already pretty long in the tooth and it’s not like those guys will have to go to their positions with walkers or replace their Gatorade with Metamucil. Now, do I think Ichiro will fall off that badly in 2013? Honestly, no. I think he can still contribute to the team, even at his ‘advanced’ age of 39, but I think he’d be better off more as a bench/platoon type of player not as a full-time starter.
Of course, you never know what’s going to happen during the course of a season with injuries and other unforeseen circumstances and an outfield of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Suzuki wouldn’t be awful. I just think the Yankees should try for a better option for the everyday right fielder. And it’s not that I feel Ichiro’s bad defensively, it would just be nice to have a younger player patrolling right field since Nick Swisher will more than likely be signing elsewhere.
This morning Michael Eder wrote about the possibility of Shane Victorino being a FA target for the Yankees. While 2012 wasn’t great for Victorino, he had a pretty unlucky offensive season split between both Philadelphia and Los Angeles, he is only 32-years old so there is a chance he can turn things around, especially in a left hand hitter friendly park like Yankee Stadium. Also, he’s pretty speedy on the bases and is a good defensive outfielder.
There is also the possibility of the Yankees looking to Chris Dickerson as a cheap, in-house, everyday right field option because while the goal for now is to field the 2013 squad, the Yankees are also looking to drop payroll in 2014 and will have to figure out what to do with both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.
Back to Ichiro, in order for him to sign with the Yankees he’d more than likely have to take a tremendous pay cut – he made $17M last year so there’s still no guarantee that he’d re-sign. It’s also possible he could head to another team that has an opening in the outfield and little more money to work with.
So what do you guys think? Should the Yankees bring Ichiro back for 2013 or should they thank him for his contributions in 2012 and say thanks but no thanks? (Leave your thoughts in the comments.)
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17 Responses to To Sign Ichiro or To Not Sign Ichiro?
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TIQ IQ
“Back to Ichiro, in order for him to sign with the Yankees he’d more than likely have to take a tremendous pay cut”
In order for Ichiro to play MLB for ANY team next year he’d have to take a tremendous pay cut.
I think you could pencil Ichiro in for 125 games .280/.335/.415 (.750 OPS) with plus baserunning and defense-which I know is more optimistic than Zips or Bill James or pecota or any of that stuff, but I think it comes down to how much do you believe being in a better lineup and moving from Safeco to Yankee Stadium can help him and how much you believe in the 67 game sample we saw last year. I’m a believer. I want him back. His numbers against righties the past few years have been respectable, and he hits very well at Yankee Stadium.
If they land him and then sign a platoon partner like Hairston(I would have preferred Gomes but he’s gone to the Sox now) who can hit lefties very well, then I think they end up replacing Swishers production on the super cheap, very moneyballesque.
That’s a pretty generous walk total you’re penciling him in for with that BA/OBP split. If he hits .280 I think your probably looking at an OBP right around .300 flat, if not slightly under. At this point in his career 4% seems to be a high walk total.
I love the idea of Chris Dickerson being part of the equation. I’m excited about home grown Yankees being given a chance. I think Ichiro will be fine for another season. He is certainly different than Swisher. He will hit less homers (and of course, runs don’t win games, homers win games)…I just wonder if Ichiro is open to some criticism about walking. He seems to prefer swinging at ball 4 trying for a hit than take that pitch and get on base. He ends up with a lot of meek grounders to the left side. If he were open minded enough contemplate an adjustment with that and walk more, he can be awesome at several different slots.
On a side note, I’ll be the 1st one to admit that I have no knowledge of what a wRC+ and wOBA are….but if those paper stats show Andrew Jones had a better year than Ichiro, then I’m blind.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/woba/
wOBA is a little more comprehensive than OPS. It pretty much includes all ways of getting on base. And in the case of Ichiro since he doesn’t walk a lot, his number is lower.
Does that make sense?
wRC+ works with wOBA and is better than OPS+ at measuring a player’s offensive value. Plus it’s park and league adjusted so you can compare players from different eras.
wRC’s range varies from year to year but in general is 40 – 120. 40 being awful, 120 being excellent. Although I think the range will change this year: Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout were at 166 and led the MLB while Ian Desmond who finished 30th in wRC was at 128. Swisher was at 128 and ranked 29th and Cano was 150 ranked 8th.
Dickerson is not “home grown”, he was drafted by the Yankees out of High School but didn’t sign and went to school. He then got drafted by the Reds, whose organization he stayed in until 2010, when he was traded to the Brewers. So he’s only been with the Yankees since 2011, which makes him a minor league signee and an “in house option”, but in no way “home grown”.
Suzuki was pretty bad prior to joining the Yankees at the trade deadline, not just for the first part of 2012 but for all of 2011. Jones fell off a cliff in the second half but put up better numbers in the first half.
Just to elaborate further on what I posted above.
I’d rather they just sign Swisher, or trade for Justin Upton or you know, get an outfielder who would be a safer bet to produce.
I’m operating under the belief that the Yanks won’t add significant payroll due to the $189 plan, and under those circumstances Ichiro is an attractive option.
I agree with Boras on that one all the way though, MLB is flooded with $$$ right now and the Yankees should be able to toss their clout around, instead the opposite is happening as other teams close the gap and the Yankees become more and more cost conscious.
Spending doesn’t always equal winning of course, but when you already have a 95 win team that came up just short, the thought of adding an elite player or two to that mix and pushing the payroll to the $205-215m area(which is not new territory for the Yankees, and again, MLB is drowning in profit right now) is really appealing.
As a Yankee fan who’s spent most of the past 15 years knowing we could get whoever we want when free agency rolled around, this has been a tough adjustment knowing there is a real limitation in place.
It’s kind of weird knowing there’s a limit for next season. Makes this year’s Hot Stove all the more interesting and frankly, slightly frightening. Haha.
I rather the yanks not sign Ichiro. Everything he is good at, is what a healthy Brett Gardner is good at. I rather the yanks try to replace the power Swisher brought to the team, which I know wasn’t something godly.
It would quite possibly be that the Yankees would be signing Ichiro, entirely without expecting him to be joining Gardner in the outfield.
The idea might be that Ichiro would be replacing him(in whole or in part) and Gardner will be traded.
Anytime I see the idea of Gardner being traded kicked around I always wonder what kind of value he really has around the league, it can’t be much. He’s a good player, especially for this team considering what he brings to the table and the price he brings with it. However he isn’t some early 20′s guy who you expect to get better from here, he’s got an injury history, and his biggest asset is still the biggest undervalued commodity in baseball among GMs. I just don’t see a scenario where you trade Gardner and bring back even half of his value to the Yankees when fully healthy, I just don’t see the team dying to get their hands on him.
Do you see any reason to trade Granderson? I really dont see the Yankees as extending him, since (hopefully) Flores will be in AAA this year and will be MLB ready for 2014. If this is the case, then maybe they trade Grandy for pitching, move Gardner to CF, sign Ichiro/Hairston for a platoon LF and still try to get a cheap/young RF.
First I hope they move Gardner to CF whether Granderson is back or not, it’s time to get as much value out of Gardner’s defense as possible.
I’d trade Granderson but I’d want to do it in aim of a bigger deal. I don’t think Granderson can fetch 2 or 3 good prospects by himself, not as his age on a one year deal. But he may be able to land 1 decent prospect Arizona wants you could throw together with Nova/Phelps, Nunez, and Mason Williams to land Upton. There is also the small chance Arizona would simply take a package of Granderson, Nova, Nunez, and Williams straight up, sort of a win now AND later package. Which would be my ultimate goal in trying to move Granderson. If neither can be done you’d likely be better off just taking the draft pick you get when he turns down arbitration next season.
sure I would see great merit in trading Granderson
especially if we can send him to Seattle along with David Wright and get back a pitcher.
I like Ichiro for 2013. if you cant trade or sign a RF this year, just have Ichiro there for one year with a right handed hitting platoon player.
Not a fan of re-signing Suzuki (or of Suzuki in general – never have been). I’m not buying into his dead-cat bounce at the end of the season or the “revitalized with the Yankees” meme. If he was so revitalized then why did it take him 5 or 6 weeks to start hitting once he got here?
Dickerson will never be an everyday player – he has a huge platoon split (not buying his better numbers against lefties last year – too small a sample) and strikes out a ton. Paired with the right platoon partner he could be a reasonable stop gap but he’s not exactly young and if he hasn’t been able to crack an MLB starting lineup by now I have to question if he has the stuff.
He isnt a starter. I’d say he was “revitalized” because he wasnt playing everyday, he got days off and lots of rest…like A-rod.