The 2012 Yankees ended the season on a disappointing note when the Tigers swept them in the ALCS. That loss has shifted people’s attention from the fact that the Yankees have ended the regular season with the best record in the American League for two year’s in a row. The core of this team is good, no matter what happens in October. The good news is that most of the players are returning. Here’s how the offense is guaranteed to look next year:
C – Unknown
1B – Mark Teixeira
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Alex Rodriguez
SS – Derek Jeter
LF – Unknown
CF – Curtis Granderson
RF – Unknown
DH – Unknown
The 2013 Yankees will return a guaranteed five players, and if you add Russell Martin at Catcher and Brett Gardner in left then that number increases to seven players. That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for roster improvements. If the Yankees decide to take a full season of Ichiro Suzuki (.322/.340/.454 with the Yankees) then suddenly the entire team is set, with the exception of the DH, which will probably rotate once again.
If the good news from the above is that the Yankees will return the vast majority of a 95 win offense, then the bad news is that the Yankees are old. Tex, A-Rod and Jeter in particular should not be viewed as guaranteed performers. All three of them have shown a mix of decline and injury since the 2010 season. There will come a season when all three of them are old and bad at the same time. It hasn’t happened yet and since all three of them are virtually untradeable due to age and dollars the only thing the Yankees can hope for is that the dreaded season isn’t 2013.
The remaining players who will get roster spots are no-brainers. Robinson Cano will be one of the best players in the game for the next three or four years. Curtis Granderson may be frustrating at times, but his power numbers still outweigh his strike outs. Brett Gardner brings a lot to the Yankees, and was second on the team only to Robbie in fWAR from 2010 to 2011. That still leaves the DH and the right field position to be filled out, but the Yankees are unlikely to add impact players at these positions.
Over the years I’ve learned never to under estimate Brian Cashman. Just when you think the Yankees are going to war with one set of players he’ll bust out a big trade that brings a big player to the Bronx. That being said, right now the Yankees are committed or should commit to a set of players for 2013 who will look very similar to the players the Yankees put on the field in 2012. That might take some of the excitement out of this off season, but given the fact that this team won the AL East crown and 95 games, it isn’t a bad thing.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
6 Responses to The players we know will be on the 2013 Yankee offense
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
When people say Granderson’s strikeouts still outweigh everything else, how? He was worth 2.6 fWAR this year compares to Gardner’s 5.2 fWAR the year before. Was Gardner’s 2001 twice as good as Granderson’s 2012. 43HRs vs. 7HRs?
Granderson isn’t as good as his HR numbers suggest. According to Fangraphs, there were 25 CFs with a better fWAR than Granderson. He has the second worse OPS of anyone with >= 40 HRs in history.
I guess you can tell that I’m not a Granderson fan. If you think this year was an aberration, sure, keep him. I’d rather trade him for 2 prospects, one being an MLB ready outfielder.
Well, your analysis only holds water if you buy into FanGraphs WAR methodology which many people, myself included, think seriously overvalues UZR. Gardner’s fWAR is mostly tied up in his defensive and base-running ratings and his defensive ratings get an artificial boost because he’s being compared to other LF (not a strong defensive position). If he were compared to other CF he wouldn’t have nearly as high a rating.
Furthermore, Gardner’s best batting value rating came in his aberrational year of 2010 (which many Yankee fans mistake for his baseline) when he had an unsustainable walk rate and BABIP. When those corrected in 2011 his batting value rating nosedived from 9.8 to 0.5. In comparison, Granderson’s batting value ratings with the Yankees are 8.0, 40.2 and 14.8. He gets dinged quite a bit by the defensive value ratings because he’s not a great OF and is being compared to CF who are, in general, the best fielding OF.
So, the solution is not to trade Granderson but for him and Gardner to swap positions. I doubt Granderson, with only one year of tea control, can be traded for prospects of any value, let alone MLB ready ones.
“I doubt Granderson, with only one year of tea control, can be traded for prospects of any value, let alone MLB ready ones.”
Exactly what I was going to reference. He is severely overvaluing Granderson’s trade market. No one is going to give up two decent prospects, let alone MLB ready OFer’s for a one year rental of Granderson (and his $15M salary).
I really don’t understand why Gardner seems like a lock in LF? I get the speed and better than average defense. But he really hasn’t proven he is anything but a mediocre hitter.
But wouldn’t we be better off with Ichiro or a FA righty with power?
Everyone keeps saying this 95 win season was something…I don’t think it is repeatable without an important acquisition to replace Swisher and Granderson. I do not need to win the WS every year to feel the season was not a failure. I just like different baseball than what I saw this season. No matter how you crunch the numbers, there was a helluva lot of mediocre baseball this year. The writer above wants similar players to what were on the field in 2012? I don’t. This 2012 team won 95 games because Boston made a huge choice to rebuild in late August and were not that great before that. Toronto lost 5 key players for much of the season. Both will be better next year and Tampa may improve their offense and not lose Longoria again. Baltimore should be as good and may even improve.These Yankees will find it hard tin 95 again. I do not want “similar” players to 2012s team. I want players like Bernie and O’neill. No 40 homer seasons….just solid play. I do not remember Bernie and Paul going through extreme hot n cold streaks like Swish and Grandy do. Isn’t there a sabertrnic stat that measures consistency?
any chance the yankees will go after josh hamilton?