Ichiro Suzuki‘s arrival in pinstripes always seemed surreal, even as the playoffs came and went (too soon). Perhaps it was his performance that lent to the lasting feeling of disbelief. While it was easy to assume that leaving Safeco Field and the more-than-feeble Seattle offense for the greener pastures of Yankee Stadium and the more potently rounded New York lineup (in which he wouldn’t be the focal point) would lead to an offensive improvement, few could have predicted the renaissance-style performance e put up as a Bomber.
In 67 games (240 plate appearances) for the Yanks, Ichiro hit .322/.340/.454, good for a .342 wOBA and a 114 wRC+. His IsoP with the team was .132; for posterity, his career high in IsoP is .133 (2005). In typical Ichiro fashion, he also stole 14 bases (though he was caught five times). While he was weak against the Orioles in the ALDS–his first playoff action since 2001–he was one of the only Yankees to have a pulse at the plate against the Tigers in the ALCS; in the four game series, he tallied six hits and a walk. Ichiro, it seems, is back. And for him, the timing couldn’t be better.
Ichiro is a free agent this Hot Stove Season and the Yankees will assuredly have an opening in the outfield. Given his age and recent pre-New York production, any sort of long-term deal is not going to happen and that’ll make him attractive to the Yankees with Plan 189 looming in the ever-nearing distance. His cost and time commitment will likely be low and short and that prospect is probably the biggest thing going in his favor regarding a repeat performance in the Bronx. In terms of off-field factors, Ichiro was well-liked by the fans and, by all accounts, was a hit in the clubhouse. On the field, his midseason turnaround speaks for itself. Yankee Stadium is usually an offensive booster in and of itself and that held true for Ichiro. After being traded to New York, he hit .359/.385/.564 at home, bringing his career line at YS3 to .350/.374/.539 (194 PA).
After the last few months, the idea of Ichiro in pinstripes for the next season or two is certainly a good one. But of course, there is another side of his coin: he doesn’t walk much (he never has, though) and he doesn’t provide much power for a corner position. There is also the non-zero possibility that Ichiro’s performance in New York was a “dead cat bounce.” After all, he is an older player and looked to be in steep decline heading into the middle of this season. However, Derek Jeter has provided a damn solid counter-argument to my last point: never count out an immensely talented hitter.
When this trade first went down, i couldn’t imagine Suzuki staying with the Yankees past 2012. Now I can, even if he wouldn’t be my first choice.
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15 Responses to The Idea of Ichiro
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TIQ IQ
I say sign him for right and if he stinks again, you can trade or dfa and not lose much.
what’s first choice, Justin Upton?
I’m in the dead-cat bounce camp and not a fan of Suzuki’s to begin with. He would be my plan D after trying to bring back Swisher on a reasonable deal (probably not happening but you never know), signing BJ Upton (move Granderson to RF) and signing Tori Hunter as a one-year stop gap (at least he’s RH and has some pop).
I discount the most desirable plan A (trading for Justin Upton) because I don’t really see how the Yanks and Snakes match up for that one but there might be some three-way trade scenarios that could make it happen.
I don’t like the idea of Gardner and Suzuki in the same OF. Not enough extra-base pop there and with A-Rod and Tex declining at the other corner positions that would be a problem.
1 yr/$8 million if we get to plan D but I really, really hope that some other team (Giants?) makes him a better offer.
I love Ichiro back for another season. Mostly, I like a guy who gets base hits consistently, week in week out. I believe Swisher set his career low in 0-fer in 2012. He and Granderson seemed to either be red hot or ice cold. Since it is a 162 game season, stats can be misleading. I love when they got hot as they can both carry a team on their shoulders, but then they disappear in a 1-18 skid. Ichiro plays the D, runs the bases and should hit .280 next season with ease. He K’d 61 times. Nicky K’d 140x and Grandy more than that. I wonder if there is a sabertronik stat that tells what happens by not striking out. Swish had 17 more extra base hits than Ichiru, I wonder if Ichiro produced anything tangible with his 80 less strikeouts?
Even with his September surge (after six weeks of underwhelming performance) here are Suzuki’s numbers for 2012:
wRC: 68 wOBA: 300 wRC+: 90
Here are Swisher’s
wRC: 95 wOBA: 363 wRC+: 128
and there’s just as big a disparity in their respective 2011 numbers.
So the bottom line is that Swisher has been a far more valuable offensive weapon than Suzuki. But, by all means, don’t let the facts get in the way of your pre-conceived notions that Suzuki’s streaks of harmless ground ball outs make his much weaker offensive production more valuable than Swisher because Swisher strikes out more. Swisher also has a lifetime walk rate of 21.3% more than double Suzuki’s 9.3% which more than makes up for the Ks.
Yeah Suzuki is a better OF than Swisher but he’s not nearly the force in the field he was in his better days and while he can still steal a base I don’t value SB nearly as highly as others.
I wouldn’t give Swisher a mega-deal but my first choice would still be to try to bring him back on reasonable terms (although neither side really seems disposed to continue the arrangement at this time). I still would rather sign BJ Upton or have Tori Hunter as a one-year stop gap than bring back Suzuki.
Swisher ain’t coming back, roadrider, without getting paid too much for too many years.
you can offer him league minimum and a bag of donuts, but it’s a waste of time.
Ummm, I think we agree on that. Said so in my post.
To clarify:
I don’t think league minimum and a bag of donuts is what I had in mind as a reasonable offer (what makes you think I did?). Swisher will get more years and $$$ than the Yankees want to pay him (or would be wise to offer him for that matter). It wouldn’t hurt to try given the alternatives but I think it’s basically torn between Nick and the Yankees (and the fans) . I just don’t see Ichiro Suzuki as the best (or even second best) alternative.
Suzuki certainly isn’t the ideal alternative, but he’s a very reasonable one. the defense is very good at the corner outfield spots and pretty much good in center, he’s likely to be an above-average hitter (w/o power) and, even old as dirt, has very good speed….and he’s inexpensive and a short-timer.
I would prefer someone young with everything that Ichiro brings and also with a whole lot more power….and probably hitting from the right side.
but the only one comes to mind and possibly available by opening day is in Arizona…. and while I think trading for him to be a good idea, he’s going to cost a fair bit in talent.
his brother B J, beside being someone who has hit .240 for the last four years, is going to get a contract similar to Swisher’s …for no good reason and doesn’t have his head into the game half the time I’ve seen him play.
There is a rumor that the Red Sox will dangle Ellsbury to the SF Giants for Lincecum.
Here’s what the Yanks should do:
Offer A.J. Pierzynski a one-year $7.5M contract ($1.5M raise and what Martin made in 2012.)
Offer Melky Cabrera a one-year $12.5M contract (or basically the money the Yanks will clear buying out Soriano.)
Offer Ichiro a one-year $6M contract where he defers $5M of it like he deferred that amount in 2012 so the Yanks pay only $1M of it in 2013.
Offer Swisher a one-year $13.3M contract. If he rejects it, offer him two years at $10.25M a year ($20.5M total) so he remains a Yankee and makes the same as he made in 2012 each year for two more years. If he rejects that offer, let him go and offer Torii Hunter a one-year $10.25M contract (what Swisher made in 2012.)
Hypothetically, the Yanks could go in at least two directions here:
LF Cabrera / CF Granderson / RF Ichiro / DH Swisher or Hunter, Gardner #4 OF
LF Cabrera / CF Gardner (Granderson traded) / RF Ichiro / DH Swisher or Hunter, Ibanez #4 OF who doesn’t play much in the OF cuz Cabrera and Gardner can back up each other, Ichiro could backup both, and Swisher or Hunter could back up Ichiro.
Another thing they could do is trade Teixiera and half his salary to Seattle for Jesus Montero, make him the DH (let go of Swisher) and sign Kevin Youkilis to man 1B for 2013 only, or start Montero at 1B, Youkilis at 3B, A-Rod at DH. Seattle would receive a veteran Gold Glove firstbaseman who would most likely post the most HR and RBI of any Mariner for the remaining four years on his contract for $11.25M a year, $1M more than the cost of 2012 Swisher and $5.75M less than 2012 Ichiro who the Ms didn’t get 100% utility out of by trading him to the Yanks in midseason. Youkilis would take over 1B. Yes, defense would be lost, but not much – he’s not Teixiera but he wouldn’t kill the Yanks with the glove either. Montero would cost peanuts in 2013 and 2014 and very little in 2015. He could always be traded and the Yanks would get more for him than they would for Teixiera. The Yanks eat $45M trading Teixiera, but they clear $45M trading Teixiera, too, and could use a small amount of that to sign Youkilis for a year. If Montero is the goods with the bat, he would cost $45M the Yanks ate trading for him plus his salary across five years (2013-17.) Also Seattle only loses Montero’s last year under contract (2017) and might lose Teixiera the year before it as he could always be re-signed. Give them back Pineda if they want compensation for losing 2017 Montero.
“Offer Swisher a one-year $13.3M contract. If he rejects it, offer him two years at $10.25M a year ($20.5M total) so he remains a Yankee and makes the same as he made in 2012 each year for two more years. If he rejects that offer, let him go….”
“If” he rejects it?? Swisher knows this is his one chance to cash in. He is not signing anywhere for less then four or five years. Of course you offer the $13.3M. That is just to get the draft pick.
“Another thing they could do is trade Teixiera and half his salary to Seattle for Jesus Montero, make him the DH….”
Do you plan to get Jack Zduriencik very drunk first? Why in the world would Seattle trade a cheap, cost controlled hitter for 4 years of an $11M 1B who has been on decline for four straight years now? Seattle will not be in a position to contend for at least a few years. Exactly why would they throw money away on an overpaid hitter? Also, there is that pesky little full NTC that Tex says he will NOT waive.
“Montero would cost peanuts in 2013 and 2014 and very little in 2015. He could always be traded and the Yanks would get more for him than they would for Teixiera.”
And you don’t think the Mariners know this? Just not happening. This isn’t a video game. You don’t get a “force trade” button.
“Give them back Pineda if they want compensation for losing 2017 Montero.”
I am not even sure how to answer that one. SMH.
Aren’t you the same guy who went on RAB a few monthes back and told all that the Yankees should trade A-Rod – and half his salary, of course- to the Mariners and they would be glad to take him? I thought so.
Do any of those numbers that make Swisher look so good consider such minor points as who can go first to third on a single and who can advance a runner with a bunt or well-placed ground-out? Do any of them consider the value of stolen bases, not just in advancing runners to second but in eliminating future double plays. All of these are areas od deficiency for the Yankees. And in every one of them, Ichiro is better than Swisher.
Now don’t get me wrong — at equal or near-equal salary commitments I’d opt for Swisher. But when you’re talking about $6 or $8 million vs a five year deal for $50 million plus, Ichiro is my guy. And I don’t mind Ichi and Gardner in the same outfield either. In fact, I like the fact they can run down anything. Plenty of power on this club without Swisher (if only it showed up when we needed it most).
This is delusional nonsense that reveals either 1) a complete lack of understanding of how to value hitters or 2) irrational hero worship of a mostly washed up singles hitter who lacks power and does not walk on the basis of the over-hype that has always surrounded him.
Those numbers don’t make Swisher look good – they show that he is good and that he has been a much more valuable offensive player than Suzuki the past two seasons. And FYI they do take SB into account. Those minor points that you mentioned are just that – minor points. Like all aspects of the game they have their value but a guy who is mostly good at doing only those things just isn’t that valuable no matter how much more virtuous his contributions seem to the small ball (and small minded) zealots like you.
The Yankees led the AL in OBP, were 2nd in runs scored, 2nd in OPS+. Oh, and they won the most games. Yep, they were not among the league leaders in SB but they played virtually the entire season without their 50 SB guy. If he was there they would have been near the top as they were in 2011 (3rd). I don’t get where the “deficiencies” you mentioned were a real problem. If you want to make that claim then produce the numbers showing that 1) the Yankees were significantly worse than other teams at these things (not just your evidence-free opinion) and 2) that said deficiencies (if they in fact exist) had a measureable impact on winning games (which will be tough to do since the Yankees won more games than anyone else in the league).
It’s ridiculous to make sweeping conclusions about a team based on two post-season series when they performed poorly due to an ill-timed team slump. Their problem was not any of those small ball wet dreams you’re fixated on. It was their .224 OBP which produced few rallies and the bad luck they had in the ones that they did have (see ALCS Game 2).
One other point. You said:
Well, duh!
Fangraphs player values (in millions)
Suzuki: $1.8 (2011) $11.9 (2012)
Swisher: $17.1 (2011) $17.7 (2012)
Player salaries (from Baseball Reference):
Suzuki: $18 (2011) $17 (2012)
Swisher: $9.1 (2011) $10.25 (2012)
Everybody loves a bargain.