I think that people get too locked into the little details when thinking about the offseason. “Cashman should trade Alex Rodriguez and then move Derek Jeter to third base and then let Nick Swisher go and and then move Gardner to center field and then sign a right-handed power reliever and then find a new hitting coach and then fill out the bench…” This kind of thinking is far too tactical for Brian Cashman right now. He needs to answer the big strategic questions first.
As far as I can tell, there’s three big strategic paths that he could follow: Tweak and maintain the status quo, reload, or start a Yankee-style rebuild.
Tweak and Maintain the Status Quo
I can’t find the quote right now, but shortly after the season ended, Brian Cashman commented that there’s no reason this current group of players couldn’t contend next season. Taken quite literally – maybe swapping Nick Swisher out for another player – he’s right. The 2012 Yankees won 95 games and had their best postseason overall pitching performance in a very long time. Return the exact same roster, one year older, and you’re likely to get a fairly similar result.
Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher would likely walk, but a ‘maintain the status quo’ move would likely bring back guys like Eric Chavez, Russell Martin, possibly Raul Ibanez, etc, and not make any radical changes. Hiroki Kuroda is probably the most difficult decision, and this scenario would probably see him resigned on a 2-year deal.
Of course, everyone will be a year older. Derek Jeter probably isn’t ever going to have another season like his 2012 season, and even Robinson Cano is due for some mean reversion. The upside is that there’s good reason to believe that Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte, Michael Pineda, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, and even Curtis Granderson can be better players in the future than they were in 2012.
I don’t think the problems of maintaining the status quo show up in 2013. This team is probably still the best team in the AL East heading into spring training. They have a lot of downside risk locked up in old, injury-prone players, but should still contend. The problem is that you’re kicking a very important can down the road: the eventually necessary Yankee restructuring.
Reload
Under this scenario, the Yankees are looking to set up some long term changes without doing anything crazy to their core team. They would start thinking about 2014 and 2015 under a reload. Alex Rodriguez might go under this, but I think that is unlikely. Rather, you might see the Yankees go out and trade for a Josh Willingham or Jason Kubel to replace Nick Swisher, and possibly re-sign Rafael Soriano. A slightly more aggressive reload could try and replace Russell Martin with an upgrade – Brian McCann is rumored to be available – instead of simply settling for another season of average-ish production at the position.
The biggest decision under a reload for me is what to do with Curtis Granderson. Theoretically, Granderson could be traded for someone under team control for a little bit longer. Brett Gardner is more than capable of filling his spot, and Granderson’s home run-centric contributions probably make him a bit overvalued on an open market. That said, its hard to imagine the Yankees improving in 2013 strictly through a Granderson trade. Your might hope would be to use him in a package to a contender for a young piece – someone like Elvis Andrus.
I don’t want to try and predict free agency, but you could see the Yankees freeing up money after Swisher, Soriano, and Granderson leave, and using them to bring in a big splash.
I think reloading is very attractive. The Yankees need to start setting themselves up for some kind of medium-term future. While the 2012 postseason was more about luck and bad timing than the quality of players on the roster, it does offer us a warning about the potential future of an aging Yankee team.
But if you’re really concerned about this, you could try…
A Yankee-Style Rebuild
If you accept the premise that the age of the Yankee roster is a ticking time bomb (I do), then you might want to start looking at some pretty radical changes. The time bomb that we’re talking about is that every productive player on the Yankee roster gets old really fast. Derek Jeter starts acting his age. Mark Teixeira keeps getting worse. C.C. Sabathia goes down with a much more serious injury. Mariano Rivera can’t excel anymore. Even Robinson Cano comes down from his peak. The 95 win Yankees could very quickly start to look like the 2011-2012 Red Sox.
A Yankee-style rebuild would do exactly what those Red Sox teams tried to: Free up as much money as possible as soon as possible. The Yankees would find takers for Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson. Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano would walk. An ambitious GM could even try and get rid of Mark Teixeira. You might still close ranks around the current pitching staff, but probably wouldn’t give a 2-year deal to Kuroda. I could even see a choice to move Phil Hughes, who is under control for only 2 more years.
Except for Rodriguez, each move likely yields some positive return in the form of draft picks for players coming your way.
The trick would be to try and bring in multiple long term pieces that the Yankees could play through their prime years. I’d look at trades for Chase Headley and Elvis Andrus. I think that Justin Upton is a name that could be targeted in a rebuild, although I feel he would be overvalued.
What makes this a Yankee-style rebuild? Well, if you can get enough salary off the books, you’re left with the ability to:
- Lock up Robinson Cano long term.
- Lock up a young piece that you trade for long term.
- Sign a big-name free agent.
Who is that free agent? I don’t know. It could be someone like Anibal Sanchez or Jake Peavy. But if you free up enough money, I could even see it being someone like Josh Hamilton, if the price is right. The Yankees would still be on net getting younger, but would also be upgrading using their #1 asset – money.
That’s really the key, I think: the Yankees need to put themselves in a position again to be big spenders on top quality talent. Right now, they’re saddled with so many overpaid players that they are functioning like a medium-market club. $189 million doesn’t go that far when Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez are playing like much cheaper players.
You probably can’t blow up the team (relative measure here, the Yankees can’t blow up their team like some teams can) and win as many 2013 games as option #1. But I’m willing to bet that you can put the team in a better position to win games in 2014-2017. At some point, this Yankee team is going to have to transition from a roster led by Mo/CC/Jeter/Cano/Teixeira/Arod to one led by a younger group. The longer you wait to force the issue, the harder the landing is. If Cashman does it right, a rebuild could be more like hitting a trampoline than a brick wall.
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11 Responses to The Big Question for the Offseason
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TIQ IQ
I disagree w your tweak and maintain position. You say that this team , one year older, can win 95 games. I don’t think they can. They were 12 games over .500 against Boston and Toronto, w Toronto suffering their whole rotation being disabled and losing their best hitter. Boston was horrible. You can’t expect to win the season series 13-5 again next year with these same players. With Boston back to their competitive selves and Toronto having less injuries, I can easily see that 12 games over .500 cut in half. That puts the Yankees at 89 wins, not a repeated 95. Baltimore will be better and the Yankees a year older…
Reloading is the only way to go. Sign n trade Grandy to San Fran for one of their pitchers. Kbel, MCCan….I see it…reload. Use Gardner and squeeze another year out of Suzuki. Go Yankees.
Standing pat or close to it merely delays an inevitable decline like what happened to the Yankees in 1965, etc. The model for rebuilding is a combination of home-grown players with some unselfish free agents, what comprised the great 1998 team with the Core Four in their youth and key team free agents like Paul O’Neill and Scott Brosius. That team showed patience, worked counts, rarely whiffed. No superstars or super-egos. Just a well-balanced bunch of professionals with a calm leader (Torre) in charge. I do have renewed hope for Girardi, given his willingness to “go with his gut” and benching ARod and Granderson vs. Detroit. But without a somewhat major overhaul, I see no better than 0.500 next year and a potentially long dry spell as the Orioles and Rays take over the AL East. The Red Sox did the right thing clearing out their riff-raff and will likely return to prosperity sooner than a stand-pat Yankee team would.
If I was the Yankees general manager here’ what I’d do:
Fire Kevin Long for being the hitting coach for the three worst hitting Yankee teams by slashline especially BA and OBP since 1989-92 (2008, 2011, and 2012) and replace him from a group of candidates. Bottom line is anyone will be better than him.
Exercise the 2013 club options on Cano, Granderson, and Aardsma.
Offer Soriano and Swisher one year and $13.3M offers they’ll reject so the Yanks can receive compensatory draft picks from losing them to free agency.
Trade A-Rod and $80M or 70% of his remaining salary to the Dodgers or Marlins (whoever wants him and A-Rod wants to go to) for prospects.
Make Nunez the new 3B.
Trade Granderson to the Cubs for Alfonso Soriano straight up. Soriano takes over DH. Soriano would cost $5M more than Granderson ($18M vs. $13M) but the Yanks would have him under control through 2014 unlike Granderson.
Trade Teixiera, half his remaining salary, and out of shape fatso Pineda to Seattle for Jesus Montero who becomes the 1B. The Yanks clear $45M ($11.25M a year.) Seattle gets a veteran All-Star Gold Glove firstbaseman for cleanup who will lead the team in HR and RBI 2013-16 and protect the Mariners’ best hitter after him for only $11.25M a year, $5.75M less than the cost of 2012 Ichiro.
After the trades, offer Cano six years at $20M a year for $120M which would take him through age 37 (since he’ll turn 31 on 11/22/13) and give him the second-biggest contract for a homegrown Yankee by money after Jeter’s decade-long $189M contract for 2001-10. If Cano rejects the offer, trade him for a bushel of prospects and go for David Wright for 3B in 2014 (Nunez to SS, Jeter to 2B or someone new at 2B for 2014.) Or, offer Cano for Wright straight up and see if the Mets bite.
Offer Jake Peavy a one-year $18M contract so he still makes $22M for 2013 since the Chicago White Sox will buy him out for $4M to avoid paying him his $22M club option for 2013. The Yanks could use the $12.5M they’ll clear from Soriano opting out and $5.5M of the $10.25M they’ll clear letting go of Swisher towards this payout.
Offer Kuroda a one-year $15M contract and use the $4M cleared letting go of Garcia towards this raise ($11M to $15M.)
Offer Pettitte a one-year $6.5M contract and use the $4M cleared letting go of total bust Feliciano towards this raise ($2.5M to $6.5M.)
Offer Kevin Youkilis a one-year contract and give him ample playing time at 1B, 3B, and DH. If he declines the offer, re-sign Chavez to another one-year contract.
Re-sign Mariano Rivera to a one-year $5M contract, a savings of $10M as he made $15M in 2012, or just re-sign him for any amount under $15M so the Yanks save some money.
Re-sign Rapada, Eppley, Stewart, Nix, and Dickerson to one-year contracts.
Re-sign Melky Cabrera to a two-year $12M a year contract for LF.
Re-sign Juan Rivera to a one-year $3.5M contract for RF (after the Dodgers buy him out for half a mil.) The Yanks could use the remaining $4.75M cleared letting go of Swisher towards this re-signing. Rivers has a career strikeout rate of only .118 (448 SO in 3787 PA) and his 2012 SOR was less at .103 (35 SO in 339 PA.)
Re-sign Dioner Navarro to a one-year $1M contract for C and a $21.5M savings as Martin will want at least three years and $7.5M a year ($22.5M total.) The Yanks clear $6.5M with this re-signing.
ROTATION: Sabathia / Peavy / Kuroda / Pettitte/ Hughes (everyone after Sabathia would be in their walk years)
BULLPEN: Rivera / Robertson / Aardsma / Logan / Rapada / Chamberlain / Eppley (no long-term contracts, not even anyone signed to a two-year contract)
BENCH: Stewart / Nix / Dickerson / Youkilis or Chavez (everyone is signed to one-year contracts)
ALL-HOMEGROWN STARTING NINE / BATTING ORDER:
Jeter 3B R in a possible walk year
Nunez SS S under control through 2016
Cano 2B L in his walk year
Soriano DH R signed through 2014
Cabrera LF S signed through 2014
Montero 1B S under control through 2017
Rivera RF R signed for 2013 only
Navarro C S signed for 2013 only
Gardner CF L under control through 2014
7/9ths 33 years old or younger and 2/9ths older than 33 until next 7/3 when Rivera turns 34 when it’ll be 2/3rds 30 years old or younger (Cano being the oldest at 30) and 1/3rd 34 years old or older.
Soriano and Cabrera are the only starters signed beyond 2013 and both could probably be traded after 2013. Hypothetically, if the Yanks traded both, they could get an entirely new starting nine for 2014.
I don’t know what you been smoking, but it must be killer shit.
I’d make a proposal but I’m flat out of “brilliant” ideas like trading a guy you consider a bum for another team’s valuable assets – and putting him in a home park that will negate his greatest strength. Also, I’m handicapped by the fact that I recognize that the 1996-1999 teams were special (only three other teams won 3 WS in a row and only two won 3 of 4 – unless you want to double count the 1938-1941 and 1947-1950 Yankees, both of those contain part of larger streaks) and it’s not an indictment of the front office that they haven’t been able to repeat that in the modern, three-tier playoff scheme.
Then again, when you advocate for signing “key free agents” like Paul O’Neill and Scott Brosius (both acquired in trades), building around a core of “homegrown players” (acquired after a string of dismal finishes resulting in good draft positions and use of the international FA market, the use of which is now severely curtailed under the new CBA) and “unselfish free agents” (Sure – there’s tons of quality players looking for unpaid internships with the Yankees) I have to question how much you really know about the 1998 team.
Well, all is not lost. I finally found something I can agree with Hawaii Dave on – Duh Innings gets the really good shit. Hope it’s not habit forming.
ATT park is only 309 down the right field line, angling to 365…..bums do as bums do.
One idea that always works is sell hi, buy low.
…ARod is probably a losing proposition in trade, and it’s not unlikely he has a strong 2013. Leave him be for this year. He will pass Willie and hit 3,000. That will be fun.
…If we can get some young talent for Grandy, do it.
…Upgrading Martin is a good idea, but I would NOT trade the farm to do this or overpay. He is still a good man and likely to have a better year next year.
…Gritner needs to be moved to CF (obviously).
…Offer Hamilton ONE year, $22m, under the premise that he rebuilds his value and maybe gets a ring. NYC is not the best place for him, but he might be open to visiting for ONE year.
…You have to get at least one of Hiroki Kuroda / Pettitte.
My guess is the Yankees spend BIG in 2015, after resetting the clock with the $189m payroll in 2014.
Teix is not old. He is underperforming. I would work with him to get him back to an elite level. The is no reason for his performance this year. He still has talent, and his D at 1st can’t be overlooked. He was not a crazy pull hitter in Texas. He needs to get back to that approach.
We may have to trade Cano. He’s talking 10 years, but even 7 is probably a very bad idea. His lack of patience and selectivity will mean he ages very fast as soon as his skills start to diminish.
He is a great talent, but not consistant or reliable. He will age like Soriano did.
Hamilton will not sign a 1 year with anyone…pro athletes all know that they are 1 freak injury from a career ending…only an idiot would sign a 1 year contract if he were capable of more years. (and of course Hamilton can get multi year)
I believe Hughes is a FA after one year, not two.
Swisher and Granderson have shortcomings that people seem to focus on. But, one aspect that I don’t think many people appreciate is the extreme durability (along with above average overall production) that these players have consistently provided. It sounds appealing to play Gardner in CF and reap the benefits of the better defensive, speed and contact skills he provides. However, Gardner has yet to prove that he can play a full season in the outfield without getting injured or breaking down. I think it will be much more difficult than most people think to adequately replace not only the production of Swisher and Granderson but also their ability to stay on the field.
I may have forgotten how O’Neill, Brosius, Martinez, Knoblauch, Wells, Cone, etc., were obtained (blend of trades and free agency) and may have to hope that the Yankee scouts find some “diamonds in the rough” among the later draft rounds in order to rebuild the farm system (and hopefully not trade them away), but I do remember the most important aspect of that 1998 team – how well it meshed into one of the all-time Yankee great teams (best of my era [post-1961], with a nod to the 1978 team) without any individual superstars or over-inflated egos.