Final impression?
Alex Rodriguez. To say that the shadow of his 2012 campaign looms large over Yankee decision makers this year would be an understatement. It would be akin to saying the that economy will be one of many topics on the minds of voters this November. A-Rod isn’t an issue, he’s THE issue. Everything about him is enormous. The contract, his star status, his presence on the team and in the clubhouse. Moving on from Alex will represent a bold shift for the franchise, both on and off the field. He’s called the ‘lightning-Rod’ for a reason, the gravitational pull from his star engulfs all that surrounds him. You barely heard about the benchings of Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher during the ALCS. It was all about Alex, all the time. Been like that since that cold day in February when he showed up here in 2004.
First thing I’d like to address. Anyone who says his contract is ‘untradeable’ without the Yanks eating around 100M is presenting a false dichotomy. Remember how this time last year everyone agreed AJ Burnett couldn’t be moved? Just yesterday Heath Bell was traded with 2 years left on his deal, a player who looked even more shot than Alex did by the end of this season. Every contract can be moved, the question is how much value will be exchanged between clubs, and there are a variety of ways teams can transfer it between one another. One is actual dollars, another is in talent and a third way is taking back a bad contract. Another concern is A-Rod has 10 and 5 rights, meaning he has to approve any deal. But if the Yanks make it clear they want to part ways, or that he would have a diminished role on the team going forward, then it would be best for both parties to move on. Alex has records to chase and being a part time DH would make it impossible for him to get there.
To illustrate, lets do a quick and dirty deal for Alex to the Dodgers. LA could use a starting pitcher, 3B and 2013 salary relief ($181.3 in commitments next year). Alex was worth about 10M last year, though his star value goes well beyond that to a team with a network, but lets assume a sliding scale of just on-field production and say he’s worth 30M over the next 5 years. David Phelps has 5 years of team control left and is a MLB ready back-end starter, lets call that 36M of value. Dodgers want to rid themselves of Juan Uribe (8M) and Ted Lilly (12M), both of whom have expiring contracts after 2013, which works nicely for the Yankee 2014 payroll aspirations. Dodgers send Ted Lilly and Juan Uribe to the Yanks, who send Alex Rodriguez, David Phelps and 28M in cash, all of which is to be paid in 2013 (and conveniently is A-Rod’s salary for next year). Grand total 114M, give or take a marginal prospect going one way or the other to make up for the value of Lilly (0.5 WAR) and Uribe (0.1 WAR). If Lilly and Uribe don’t produce anything the Yanks DFA both of them June 1st as a sunk cost, and have Alex completely off the books for 2014. From the Dodgers perspective they upgrade 3B and fill a rotation slot at virtually zero cost for next year, while lowering their net 2013 payroll by 20M. Point being, a deal can be done and frankly its not all that difficult.
We as Yankee fans tend to be New York centric. We see Alex as a diminished player, a shell of his former self and not being worth a damn in the post season except for 2009. But consider who the Dodgers had playing 3B for them last year. Or the Diamondbacks, and the Miami Marlins. Clearly, even a fading A-Rod would represent a huge upgrade from the players they fielded at the position in 2012. Fangraphs has Alex’s value at 9.8M for the 2012 season. Not worth the contract, not worth the distractions that come with a star of his magnitude for a team like the Yanks, but still good for 15th in WAR at his position, meaning that half of the teams in baseball fielded someone who produced less than he did. The question the Yankee brass have to answer is do they think Alex can still be a valuable contributor to a championship caliber club, or is his on field production no longer worth the distractions that come with a star like him. If I could venture a guess, I’d say the Yanks very publicly answered that question with their benching of him during the ALCS. If he’s of no use to you in October, then its time for both parties to move on.
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11 Responses to Biggest offseason decision: A-Rod
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TIQ IQ
My proposal would explode the Yankee payroll for 2013. You would have to replace Alex at 3B (Youkilis?) pay him and pay the two pieces of dead weight you have coming back. 2013 payroll could easily break 230M, with the luxury tax on top of it. But they’d be well set up for 2014, and the savings are so huge if they get there that it could all be a wash.
I have to suspect they won’t want to replace Alex, rather play Nunez at 3B or use the broken ankle as an excuse to get Jeter off SS and play Nunez there. In any case, moving Alex will mean some compromises for the 2013 team, and fans probably won’t like it. Transition year to the big 2014 FA list.
If they get rid of Alex, swing a deal for someone like Chase Headley (RF/3B) and bring back Ichiro, Andy and Kuroda I’ll consider it an enormously successful off season. That’s a ton of change coming off this disappointing October.
Yuccchhh!!! Playing Nunez at 3B or SS is a non-starter for defensive reasons only and his bat will be exposed with regular play. Juan Uribe? That’s Tony Womack territory.
I also want no part of Suzuki next year. I’m not buying into his September renaissance. He was terrible for the better part of two season before that.
Headley is the only good part of your proposal but he’ll cost a ton and if he gets hurt or can’t adjust to NY and the AL where are they then?
lol…i thought it was just me, you don’t like anyones ideas. hooooo-hooooo
No Dave, I don’t like bad ideas or uninformed opinions that are counter to known facts. In other words, things you seem to specialize in.
Again, fans may not like it but it may be necessary to get out from under the Alex deal. My point with the post was to illustrate that folks who say he can’t be traded are wrong, I never said the package would be ideal, or even good. But to take a hit in 2013 and be free from 5 years of poor peformance, drama and salary hell, it would be worth the hit. Long term gain.
I’m not sure I see any long-term gain coming from what you’ve proposed unless you’re talking about the Steinbrenner family’s bottom line, which I, as a fan, don’t care about.
I never buy into “september renessaince.” How many call ups that wont make the majors did Ichiro get these hits against?
Perhaps there were no serious talks at the time about trading him after all? The Keith Olbermann article which broke the trade rumor said that it was mentioned in a jokingly manner. Obviously Bell was about to be traded off and the Yankees were contacted to see what they could get for him. They joked Arod and the press got word of it and now it’s such a huge matter that it’s become a distraction and embarrassment so much so that that they must trade him off. Sure they were pissed off at Arod at the time, but wouldn’t it have blown over come spring training? Who knows, the Yankees do have a history of messing around like this and screwing over the players. I’ve heard that Posada was in a similar dog house in his last year. Seems that Steinbrenner’s spirit still runs the Yanks.
That may be true, but since Alex has 10-5 rights part of dealing him is getting him to agree, and part of that process will be letting him know he’s no longer wanted here or will have a reduced role. Leaking out trade rumors is the first step in getting him to waive his 10-5 rights.
So yes, I think there’s more to this than a half-serious post by Olbermann. I thought nothing of the initial report, but the subsequent reports by so many of the beat writers tells me there’s a lot of smoke here. Of course, a team never wants to look desperate to deal someone, so they will deny wanting to deal him. But I think chances are better than 50-50 he gets moved this offseason.
I have always supported A-Rod as a player. I think a lot of the criticism has been unwarranted over the years.
And, with the poor quality of third basemen available, or the choices the Yankees have on the roster (or in the system), I think the Yankees will be an inferior team in 2013 without A-Rod.
That being said, I think it is time for the franchise to move away from A-Rod. The Rubicon has been crossed – and not because of the benching or pinch hitting. A-Rod, throughout the post season, even continually said the right things. As many have pointed out the “pick-up story” from the NY Post also, while probably true, has nothing to do with my feelings on this.
I think the “All Focus All The Time” on A-Rod has finally worn thin. It’s enough. I think most Yankees fans are tired of the stories – not A-Rod himself necessarily (though the stories don’t exist without him).
Yes, in 2013 and 2014 and maybe even beyond, he’ll be an above-average third baseman. Yes, he might come back next year and have a resurgence like Jeter has enjoyed. But the all-consuming media attention and the constant stories and speculation on him – going forward – takes a lot of the joy away from the game and the team.
I think one reason for the so-called antipathy of the fan base this post-season is that the team is the same tired old show. A-Rod is a huge part of that – not the only part – but a huge part.
I think this is a team that needs a new identity – or needs to just to create some new excitement. A huge step in that direction would be moving on from A-Rod.
It would be nice to start fresh by beginning the post-A-Rod era sooner than later. The salary relief, if any, would be a bonus. If I were the Yankees, I would jump on the trade proposal outlined in the article above.
“If he’s of no use to you in October,then it’s time for both parties to move on.”
That, in nutshell, says it all. Why is it so difficult for people to see this? Through hell or high water, he’s gone.