(The following was originally published at The Captain’s Blog; follow me on Twitter at@williamnyy23).
-
Is there enough room for both Granderson and Swisher in the 2013 Yankees' outfield?
Is this September the swan song of Nick Swisher’s Yankee career? An impending free agent, Swisher is reportedly seeking a lucrative five-year deal, so, with the Yankees still intent on dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2014, the chances of him returning to the Bronx seem slim. Swisher has loved wearing the pinstripes, and the fans have elevated him to cult hero status, but when push comes to shove, money talks, which is why most people believe the switch hitter will walk.
Is a parting between the Yankees and Swisher really inevitable? Entering the season, the right fielder’s consistent production was almost a luxury for the vaunted Yankee offense. However, this year, some cracks have begun to emerge, one of which has been the significant regression of Curtis Granderson.
After Granderson’s MVP-caliber campaign in 2011, it almost became a given that the Yankees would seriously consider extending his contract beyond its 2013 expiration. However, this season hasn’t gone nearly as well. Not only has the center fielder hit a career-low .229, but, despite once again belting 40 homers, his run production and slugging are also down significantly. What’s more, Granderson has also been on a record setting strikeout pace, which has basically reduced the centerfielder to a “three true outcome” player (46.2% of his plate appearances have ended with a walk, home run, or strike out). Although that’s not necessarily a bad thing from an offensive standpoint, it does prevent Granderson from using his speed to provide additional value.
Three True Outcome Yankees, 1901-2012
Note: Minimum 500 plate appearances. Data as of 9/26/12.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Compounding the concern over Granderson’s declining offensive production is the noticeable struggles he has had in the field. Judging defense with the naked eye is always a risk proposition, but in this case, the defensive metrics agree, so the Yankees have to consider whether the overall deterioration evident on both sides of the ball this season represents the beginning of a long-term trend. If, going forward, the 2012 version of Granderson is what the Yankees can expect (and, judging by past seasons, 2011 is the year that seems to be an outlier), then maybe parting ways with Swisher isn’t a fait accompli?
Curtis Granderson’s Yearly Offensive Production
Note: Includes seasons with at least 200 PA. Outlined bars represent seasons with the Yankees.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com
Everyone has been focusing on the likelihood of Swisher’s departure because of his impending free agency, but if comes down to an either/or decision, the fact that the Yankees hold a $15 million option on Granderson shouldn’t hold much sway. If the team is more comfortable committing to Swisher, they could easily buy out Granderson’s option for $2 million and allocate the savings to the right fielder. Or, they could re-sign Swisher with the intention of letting Granderson leave via free agency after 2013, just in time for the 2014 budget deadline. Considering both players are in their age-31 season, and a new contract for Swisher would come at an earlier age (starting in 2013 instead of 2014), timing and economics should play a subordinate role to whom the Yankees believe will be the better player over the longer term.
Choosing between Granderson and Swisher isn’t an easy decision, but it’s one the Yankees will have to make sooner than later. Granderson is a more athletic player with greater upside (his two best seasons trump all of Swisher’s), so if the Yankees are looking for the highest reward, Cashman would probably lean toward the lefty slugger, who also happens to have an ideal Yankee Stadium swing. However, if Granderson isn’t able to play an above average center field, his value to the Yankees is diminished. In Swisher’s favor are offensive consistency and defensive flexibility. For the most part, the Yankees know what they are going to get with Swisher in the lineup, while on defense, he not only plays a solid right field, but can also fill in for Mark Teixeira at first base. Considering the latter’s recent spate of injuries, Swisher’s ability to deftly move between first base and right field could be a significant asset.
Nick Swisher’s Yearly Offensive Production
Note: Includes seasons with at least 200 PA. Outlined bars represent seasons with the Yankees.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com
There is one other alternative to consider. Instead of choosing between Swisher and Granderson, the Yankees could allow both players to leave the fold and gradually replace them with younger outfielders still in the midst of their prime. Of course, that’s easier said than done. In order to accomplish such a transition, the Yankees will probably have to rely on a trade (Justin Upton perhaps) because the team doesn’t have any major league ready prospects and the free agent crop of outfielders appears to be thin over the next two seasons. Unless the Yankees are interested in signing Josh Hamilton to a megadeal, the likes of Michael Bourn (2013), B.J. Upton (2014), Shin-Soo Choo (2014), and Jacoby Ellsbury (2014) are among the best options looking out over the next two off seasons. In other words, without anyone clearly better than Granderson or Swisher to sign, the Yankees will be compelled to commit to one or the other in the event they are unable to make a big trade.
Presumably, the Yankees have a master plan that gets the payroll to $189 million by 2014. Can Swisher be a part of it? If the rumors about a Jayson Werth-sized deal are true, probably not. However, if the outfielder is willing to be flexible in his demands, Swisher’s days in pinstripes might not be numbered after all. Of course, that would then likely start the clock on Granderson’s remaining time in the Bronx.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
17 Responses to Yankees Facing Choice Between Swisher and Granderson
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
I vote for Swisher, although I like them both.
Barring a trade for a guy like Justin Upton (which I consider unlikely) I think the best move is to retain both. Unless Swisher is actually offered a Werth-style contract by another team I think he and the Yankees will find common ground. Retaining Granderson is only a one-year commitment and practically a no-brainer given the alternatives. I’d like to see fewer strikeouts and a more balanced hitting approach from Granderson but I’ll take another year of what he’s done the past two seasons anytime. After that I think I would probably let him walk.
If the goal is to reduce costs in 2014/15 and stay competitive and get younger, I’d propose:
1- Get a right handed hitter to platoon with Dickerson in RF.
2- Sign B.J. Upton for CF
3- Pick up Granderson’s option and then trade him.
You can’t be serious about this, can you? Dickerson is a career minor leaguer who has shown a huge K rate and has never been able to stick as an MLB regular. At his age he’s unlikely to improve – he is what he is. Yet, you would hand him the majority of AB at a corner OF position? And where would you find that RH bat? If the Yankees could do that they would’ve dumped Jones a while ago.
I didn’t mean to imply that Dickerson would light up the league or that he would approach Swisher’s contribution. But he has approximately a full year’s worth of AB, as a platoon player in the majors – 437 vs. right handers. In that his line is .270/.354/.426 and a wOBA of .344 and a wRC+ of 107.
As for a right handed bat, right now I have not looked into that at all. However, I think it would be easier during the off season to find someone better than Jones.
Yes, but it’s been accumulated in short stretches which is not the same as doing it in a regular gig. My feeling is that he would be exposed pretty quickly. I like him as a 4th OF but if he’s playing almost every day that’s a problem.
I know I am going to get killed on this but why not re-sign Ichiro? After so many years of losing in Seattle, he seems to be revitalized in New York. Great hitter, great defense, and plays all three positions. I don’t get it? We would get a HOF’er for a reduced price, and he would get to play on a winner. Yes I know he doesn’t hit homeruns like Swish, but then again he also won’t cost anywhere near as much.
Well, I won’t kill you on that but I will strongly disagree with you. Suzuki is not a great hitter. He’s a guy who’s been in serious decline for two years who happens to be on a hot streak right now. There’s no fountain of youth in the Bronx, just a classic small sample size effect. I have no doubt he’s had similar hot streaks while compiling those truly awful numbers he put up with the Mariner’s the past two seasons.
Yes, he still plays pretty good defense but not good enough to offset his offensive decline. The fact that he will be a HOFer is irrelevant. He’s not that player anymore and won’t be again. And you have no way of knowing what kind of price he will command because of his past deeds and the general hype that surrounds him.
Finally, he’s too similar to Brett Gardner who is younger and a lot cheaper even if he never was and never will be as good as Suzuki was in his prime. It’s possible that the Yankees will need to re-sign Suzuki if Swisher walks away and no better alternatives present themselves. But it wouldn’t be my first choice.
1. Let Swisher Go
2. Trade Granderson for Justin Upton and put him in RF
3. Sign BJ Upton for CF
Let Swisher go…OK
No on #2 and #3, those guys have attitude problems and I for one do not trust them to do their jobs 100% @ 100% of the time.
Resign Suzuki, if one must but, I’d rather not I’d go with Dickerson, Mustelier, Zoilo Almonte and Melky Mesa. All young and need the chance to play…money wise it is a no brainer, talent wise…??????
Like most Yankees fans I think Swisher has been a great asset to the team. But this article makes it sound like a foregone comclusion that he will get a “Jason Werth type deal”. I do like him – a lot – but I doubt any team will give will give Swisher that kind of a contract.
So hopefully this will present some room for negotiation to keep him with the Yankees.
So some of Granderson’s stats are down so we should get rid of him. Who is going to play center and make-up the 40 Homeruns (2 years in row). Gardner? This is the first time the Yanks have had a center fielder since Bernie Williams. Hard to replace a guy like that!
Should Granderson concentrate this off season in cutting down on strike outs, walking more, showing more concern with hitting the ball the other way to increase his OBP% & BA, all this talk of cutting him from the payroll would cease forthwith.
Retain Suzuki, pray Gardner can stay healthy next year and see what shakes out on payroll mediation with Swish & Grandy.
Bring Swisher back
If he tales a paycut
I’d keep Swisher simply because he’s been the steadier of the two. Although he won’t hit 40+ HR per year, he’s still good for 25-30 as well as 80-85 RBI. Granderson may hit for more power, but at what cost? It looks like he’s become homer happy in Yankee Stadium. He’s going to strike out close to 200 times this year, about a third of his plate appearances. NOT a prototypical Yankee. Another advantage Swisher has over Granderson is his ability to play 1B, which he has done a lot this year due to Texeira’s injuries. His disadvantage is that he can’t steal bases, but if Granderson strikes out so much and hits below .230, who cares? He’s not going to steal because he’s hardly on base.
Get a deal Nick, Yankees!
Re-sign Swisher, trade Granderson Yankees!