(AP)
Remember when Hughes was having an ugly season? Well he’s posted a 3.46 ERA (153.1 IP) since losing the cutter, a 3.17 ERA (96.2 IP) since lowering his arm slot, and a 2.84 ERA (25.1 IP) since adding the slider.
Phil Hughes is showing why he’s a great pitcher. He was once a top 10 prospect overall, he looked great in his first few starts, but he never lived up to the hype. He struggled with injuries that severely hurt his development, and for a while we weren’t quite sure if he was a starter or reliever. The right hander and inconsistency were one in the same, and that doesn’t exclude parts of this season.
The 26 year old opened 2012 with 5 starts, totaling 21.2 IP and a 7.48 ERA. Throughout all the struggles, the Yankee stuck with him. For an organization that is notoriously impatient with prospects, their persistence in starting him is unique for how they typically handle prospects. Something about Hughes set him aside from all the other prospects that have come and gone.
When Baseball America ranked him the #4 prospect in 2007, his command and stuff was at the forefront of their writeup. His four-seam fastball and curveball played spectacularly through the minors and into his first few starts in the majors. After a hamstring injury in 2007, Hughes never felt the same. Over the following four years, he faced injuries, he was moved from bullpen to rotation numerous times, and battled inconsistency. The promising starter lost his luster.
I don’t think many people expected him to come back from his awful April this year and produce 15 wins with a 3.96 ERA In mid-September. That’s because us fans forgot about his greatest asset. Hughes showed an advanced feel for pitching at the age of 21. He had command, he had velocity, and he had movement, but he also had the rarest tool in baseball, an extreme ability to adapt.
When he was drafted in 2004, Hughes demonstrated a brilliant fastball and slider. It was the Yankees organization that asked him to try and throw the curveball instead, in order to protect his elbow. He did so with ease.
When he was reaching an innings limit, he showed that he had no problem switching from the bullpen to the rotation.
When he struggled in 2009, we saw him quickly add a dominant cutter.
When he lost considerable velocity on his fastball in 2011, he came back with a vengeance in 2012 by spending his winter working out vigorously.
But this season was the greatest demonstration of him as a pitcher. When he struggled against lefties, he added the changeup, and when he struggled against righties, he added the slider. When he was getting hit around in April, he lost his cutter. When he was giving up too many homeruns, he lowered his arm angle. Now he’s pitching like a #2 starter in hitter’s ballpark that shouldn’t favor him in the slightest.
Hughes has seen his fair share of trouble throughout his career, and he’s done nothing but overcome. Results aside, he’s shown that he can acclimate to an ever-changing game. When scouts talk about players being pitchers or throwers, Hughes is by far a pitcher.
On extending him, there are plenty of pro’s. He’s still very young, his price won’t be extravagant, he’s shown improving numbers, and he’s already succeeded in New York. There are of course the con’s. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher with a bad home/away split, he’s had an inconsistent career, and he’s been injury prone. What outweighs all of this, in my opinion, is his make up. You don’t see many players that can so simply change their mechanics and add pitches like Hughes does, and this is a game that demands adaptation.
Forget his first 5 awful starts to open the season, and look at his numbers from when he started adapting. As a 26 year old pitcher in Yankee Stadium, and in the American League East, that number is remarkable. There’s plenty of reason to think his improving trends will continue. With the price of young pitching skyrocketing in recent years, the Yankees would be smart to offer Hughes an extension before he produces a dominant statistical season. Sure, an extension is always a gamble, but the way he’s improving, the team would still be buying low. In my opinion, it’s a risk worth taking.
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6 Responses to The Yankees Should Extend Phil Hughes
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No way. Hughes biggest contribution (hopefully) will be netting a stud outfield prospect from a National League team/division/park where he will evolve and realize his best potential for major league success. There is a reason Girardi did not let him finish last night against, let’s call it what it was, a terrible lineup. Extend him? No chance, no way, no thank you.
You do not know what you are talking about. Do the people who are advocating that the Yankees move Hughes have something against him? Is it personal? I don’t get it. He is the wins leader on the Yanks, and right up there in the league. Pineda had a shoulder injury, and Sabathia may be showing signs of age. Assuming moderate progression next year and he pitches to a 3.5 era with 200 innings pitched just look where that places him on this year’s leader board – a very borderline cy young candidate. The Yankees seem to want to have 6 – 7 credible starters on hand and you think they are going to move Hughes? You have no understanding of the importance of starting pitching.
In addition, your comment about Girardi yanking Hughes shows how little you know. Hughes, was DEEP into the game at that point. Girardi was spreading the load around, and making sure that what should have been a net positive for Hughes didn’t blow up into a heartbreak.
No Pedroia, no Youkilis, no Gonzalez, no Ortiz, no Middlebrooks, no Crawford – news flash, Hughes didn’t convince anyone of anything with that start. Yay, he managed to avoid getting to 98 pitches by 4 and a third innings against the likes of the mike aviles and scott podesniks of the world. Girardi took him out because he knows Hughes gives up homeruns like they are going out of style and that his luck against the over aggressive Boston 3rd string squad was about to run out and that the Unravelling was imminent.
BTW, Do you actually remember Phil’s record against the Sox this year? He is 3 – 1 and pitching to an era of 2.03 and an opponent’s ba of .233. Only two of the players you mentioned have owned Hughes over his career – the rest bat below career average against Hughes.
Here’s a sample career/vs Hughes: Pedroia .304/.250; Youk .284/.263; Ross .263/.182; Salt .241/.154; Crawford .282/.167; Gonzalez .293/.357; Ortiz .285/.450; Middlebrooks – no hits in 3 ab.
For some reason you have an anti-Hughes bias that is preventing you from accurately processing Phil’s results.
One more career/vs hughes ba comparison : Ellsbury .297/.375 but is only 2 for 10 against Hughes this year. He crushed Kuroda on 9/11 but Hughes handled him on 9/13.
Hughes is not an elite 2 yet but is definitely a very good no. 3 – 4 starter. If you get rid of Hughes, who picks up the slack and provides depth? The killer b’s?
Excellent opinion, Michael. Makeup, determination, adaptation. I expect Phil to excel next season, with a fresh arm, and his new toolset. They would be very smart to get his prime, and the price will be (relatively) reasonable. 5 x $10? From his point of view, he would end that with security at age 32, and several years to sell yet.