Just a passing fancy..
..or will it last?
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the reemergence of the long dormant Baltimore Orioles. Its a franchise that hasn’t been above .500 since their 98 win group in 1997, and hasn’t broken 70 wins since 2006. This year, they’re 86-62 and have been a thorn in the side of the 1st place Yankees for the past month. Unlike other sports, the 162 game baseball season is a great way of sorting out the men from the boys. That’s not to say there aren’t one year wonders, most years one or more teams will emerge that seem to get a heaping of good luck after years and year of being snake bit. That’s life at the blackjack table in a game loaded with randomness. In other instances, a young team poised for a breakout will put things together and go from doormat to perennial contender for multiple years. Skill being the dominant factor in their success. So which category does the 2012 Orioles fit best? Are they for real?
The story of the 2012 O’s got off to a good start. They asserted their presence early with a 14-9 record in April and occupied at least a share of first place for much of the first two calendar months of the season, dropping out on June 8 following a 6 game losing streak. The months that followed their hot April start were largely mediocre, posting a 41-40 record from May 1 to the end of July. It appeared the Orioles were seeking their level after playing over their heads early in the year. Improved under the stewardship of Buck Showalter and GM Dan Duquette, but still not ready for prime time. The Yankees held a 10 game lead on July 18 and appeared to be ready to coast their way to October. Then August happened. The team went 18-9 as the Yankees were the ones who found themselves floundering through injuries to multiple star players and a 28-26 record from July through August. Suddenly the Yanks found themselves in a flat footed tie with the birds, and haven’t been able to shake them since.
So how are Buck’s Orioles doing it? Here’s a quick reference from their team page on ESPN’s website. (pardon the old-timey stats, but my glance at their page inspired this piece)
2012 REGULAR SEASON RANKINGS
Batting
RUNS
666 15th Overall
BATTING AVERAGE
.248 21st Overall
ON BASE PERCENTAGE
.312 23rd Overall
SLUGGING PCT
.415 13th Overall
Pitching
ERA
3.98 18th Overall
QUALITY STARTS
71 23rd Overall
WHIP
1.31 19th Overall
BAA
.254 17th Overall
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As you can see, nothing about any of those rankings screams “elite” at you or makes you think this is a team that deserves the lofty perch they currently occupy. The Orioles have built their record largely on extra inning wins (15-2) and 1 run games (27-8). But that reveals the true strength of this team, namely its bullpen. They rank 3rd in the AL in ERA, just behind the A’s but unlike Oakland pitching their home games in a one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. Led by Closer Jim Johnson, they have got big performances from journeyman veteran relievers Luis Ayala and Darren O’Day along with big years from younger members Pedro Strop and Troy Patton. The seasons of Ayala, O’Day and Patton aren’t surprising, all have been solid performers in recent years. Strop may have a limited shelf life in the AL East with his high walk rates, but his low 7.0 H/9 and solid 7.9 SO/9 make up for it. As a group, they have combined for a 168 ERA+ and 1.127 WHIP. This isn’t a group of 1 year wonders, they’re good and for the most part young, except Ayala. Of course, you can only use your bullpen as a weapon if the rest of your team gives them a tie game or lead to work with. Their record in 1 run and extra inning games is unsustainable, even with their outstanding bullpen. But with players like Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy on the rise, along with an owner willing to spend money, I have to think the future for Buck’s Orioles looks bright.
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