One of many not getting it done presently. Courtesy of The AP
(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
** All stats have been updated to include last night’s game **
I’m not going to bother trying to tip toe around the facts, because we’re all smart enough to know what they are. The Yankees are an absolute mess right now. They’re 4-10 in their last 14 games, their division lead is down to 0 games, they’re in the middle of a 10-game stretch against the 2 teams closest to overtaking them for the AL East lead, and they’re showing no signs of turning anything around. The roster is a jumbled mess of banged up superstars, old guys finally having their flaws exposed after being forced to play more than they should have earlier in the season, and middle-of-the-pack players turning in inconsistent performances, and nowhere is that more apparent than in the 1-9 lineup card that Joe fills out every day.
In these last 14 games, the Yankees have scored a total of 45 runs, just a tick over 3.21 per game. That’s hardly enough to win games regardless of what kind of pitching you’re getting, and a surefire way to lose more than you win when you’re getting the iffy starting pitching and horrid relief pitching that the Yankees are getting right now. I’ve had this feeling that there are too many big gaps in the Yankees’ run scoring these last 2 weeks, that in addition to not scoring enough runs in the innings they do score the Yankees are also not scoring in enough innings period. Looking back through these past 14 games, there’s definitely support for that theory.
The Yankees have played a total of 126 innings of baseball in their last 14 games, a number that comes out to a perfect average of 9 innings per game thanks to a couple of 8 offensive-inning home wins and the 11-inning extra-inning game against Toronto. They have scored at least 1 run in just 27 of those 126 innings, a little over 21.4% and a value that comes out to an average of less than 2 scoring innings per game. There has only been 1 game where they’ve scored in more than 3 innings (8/27 against Toronto) and 11 in which they scored in 2 or fewer innings. Overall, they have scored in the first 3 innings 11 times, the middle 3 innings 10 times, and the final 3 innings 6 times. There have been 6 instances where they’ve gone 3 innings or more between scoring innings, each of those instances occurring in the 5 games in which they’re scored in the 1st inning of play. They’ve also only scored in the 8th inning or later 3 times, and they lost all 3 of those games.
The Yankees were already struggling with the quality factor of their offense. Their problems hitting with RISP, inability to take extra bases on the basepaths, and hot-and-cold HR hitting have left many a scoring opportunity not as fulfilling as it could have been over the last 2 weeks. Now they’re compounded these offensive problems by not getting enough quantity in terms of even creating scoring opportunities for themselves. They’re going dark offensively for big stretches at a time, seemingly at least once a game, and when you aren’t creating a lot of scoring chances and aren’t maximizing your output on the chances you do have, that’s how you end up averaging just 3.21 runs a game.
So does this mean anything? And if so, what’s the cause/solution? To be honest, I really don’t know. I don’t know if there’s anything that can be taken from this that we don’t already know. In a way, this is nothing more than a personal catharsis of my building frustrations related to this offensive ineptitude. Every offensive problem area (RISP Fail, station-to-station baseball, cold steaks, too many platoon bats, injuries, declining production from the middle of the order) can be considered a contributing factor to this current state of affairs, and until some of these problems start to turn around there probably isn’t one definite solution.
The bottom line is that the Yankees are either without or with a less than 100% healthy version of their 3-6 hitters in the batting order right now, and the collection of players responsible for picking up that slack aren’t getting it done. That’s not unexpected, as I’m sure there are plenty of other teams out there who would be going through the same thing as the Yankees right now if they were without the heart of their batting order. But that doesn’t make it any less frustrating and any less panic-inducing given that it’s all happening in the final month of a pennant race.
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7 Responses to Another Look At The Underwhelming Offense
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TIQ IQ
What it means is that the Girardi Death Watch has begun. Injuries, burned out old “superstars” and useless journeymen notwithstanding, you can’t expect to get much offense when you don’t try to move runners from second to third with no outs or try a squeeze play now and then with one out, instead relying on the strikeout kings to do their thing as they swing for HRs even on 0-2 pitches. There is enough in even this depleted lineup to average 4+ runs a game, which would have at least earned a split of the last 18 games (which are 6-12) and maintained a lead. But when the automaton who manages insists on relying on the HR no matter who’s at bat, one is relegated to watch the debacle that began with the four-game sweep in Oakland and will end with another playoff miss, as in 2008. At least that year there was no teasing as they stayed behind the whole season.
Yep, more bunting. That’s the ticket. No one is hitting so let’s give away free outs. Of course, as we all know, the success rate for bunting is always 100% no matter that the batter hasn’t attempted a bunt since high school. And, as we also know beyond any shadow of a doubt the next guy up always gets a hit and drives in those key runs. Man, this is so easy I can’t understand why everyone doesn’t do it.
And why hasn’t the batter attempted a bunt since high school? Because no one teaches fundamentals in the minors any more. ANYONE who can play MLB should be able to bunt with a fairly high success rate, certainly higher than the current strikeout rate they are exhibiting. “Free” outs that score runs are better than K’s and DP’s that don’t. And, if you limit bunts to advancing from second to third (no outs) or third to home (one out), one does not need a hit to score a run. Bunting to advance to second makes little sense, since a hit would still be needed.
Waaahhh! Why can’t Johnny bunt? Maybe no one teaches it anymore because MOST OF THE TIME IT’S A BAD, DUMB, OUT-WASTING, RALLY-KILLING PLAY!!!!!!
I disagree that anyone who plays in MLB should be able to bunt with a fairly high success rate. If they can do other more valuable things (translation: just about any other baseball skill) well then who gives a shit?
Your comment on “free outs that score runs” makes no sense whatsoever in the context of this discussion. The only way to score runs on bunts (excepting errors) is on a squeeze play which is always going to be a rarity. It makes little sense to require more than one or two guys on a team to have this capability and it’s a play that should be rarely attempted. Free outs refers to sacrifice bunting. All other outs that score runs are the result of guys swinging away trying to get hits.
Yes, it makes more sense to bunt guys to third than to bunt them to second but a guy on second is already in scoring position. Why give away an out to move him to third? Unless it’s a chance for a home team to end a game in the 9th or extra innings that’s a bad play. Hitting a double makes more sense than either bunt play.
I think you’re wrong. First off, bunting a runner to second is not always a bad play. See Bill James’ article in his book on managers. All things being equal (which they never are, of course), bunting a runner to second increases your chance of scoring one run and decreases your chance of scoring more than one run. Overall, that’s a net negative but, as James points out, the whole secret is to figure out under what circumstances–who the hitter is, who the next hitter is, who the pitcher is, what you expect the defense to do, how good a fielder each of the fielders are, etc–the bunt is actually a positive play. The situations exist, and they’re not uncommon.
My personal opinion is that Girardi doesn’t know how to find those situations. Maddon’s job is a bit easier. Since his team generally doesn’t have big innings, losing the opportunity to score more than one run in an inning isn’t as big a loss as it would be for the Yankees. But right now, with the Yankees slumping, occasionally playing for one run rather than a big inning might be a big help.
Addendum:
As you point out, bunting a runner to third can be a bad play. But this doesn’t necessarily apply when there are runners on first and second, a situation the Yankees see often. Then, not only do you get a chance to score on an out, but you also get an extra run on a single, which changes the percentages. This, I think, can be a better play than you make it out to be, at least in some situations.
Also, the Yankees have had a lot of trouble scoring runners from third with less than two out, because they strike out and pop up a great deal. In situations like that, a little extra emphasis on putting the ball in play might help. Some hitters can’t do that, but some may be able to. (I’m thinking particularly of Swisher, who IMO needs to stop overswinging, especially with 2 strikes.) I think that may have been what Kevin Long was getting at recently, which Girardi dismissed.
Ever hear of a run-scoring ground out, run-scoring wild pitch, or sacrifice fly? Those are additional ways, besides squeezing, that a “free out” can bring in a runner from third with one out. When the Yankees stop striking out or hitting into DPs with runners on first and second and no outs, then tell me bunting isn’t effective. An extra run in the past 18 games would have stemmed the collapse and at least allowed them to play 0.500 instead of 0.333 ball. And, ANYONE in MLB should be able to bunt. If it was good enough for the old time stars, it should be good enough for today’s prima-donnas. What’s the team’s average with RISP? That’s how well they hit to bring in runs. If they actually got some hits with RISP, then all this discussion would be moot. But they don’t. So, what harm would a squeeze now and then do? Their whiffen-poofing with a runner on third achieves nothing.