Yesterday, Orioles’ top position prospect Manny Machado received a surprise call up to the major leagues. The shortstop was drafted third overall in 2010, and ranked 14th and 11th on Baseball America’s top 100 list over the last two years. For as much praise as he’s seen, Machado only recently put together a .266/.352/.438 triple slash in Double-A. At 20 years old, and at a premium defensive position, the big-time prospect is surely advanced for his age, but is he ready to skip Triple-A and head to the major leagues?
The initial reaction has been mixed, but obviously the Orioles think he can help the major league team reach their first playoff appearance in fifteen years. Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs agrees with the aggressive promotion, and argues that the numbers that Machado produced in Bowie are being underrated when considering the League and ballpark he played in.
The first thing to note is that the Eastern League isn’t exactly an offensive haven. The average hitter in the EL this year is hitting .260/.331/.392, and the run environment for the league is just 4.31 runs per game. This isn’t the PCL or the Cal League, where you need to hit .350 just to call it a respectable season. Machado’s line might not look all that sexy, but it is good for a 122 wRC+, and ties him for the 18th best offensive season of any qualified player down there. He’s not tearing up the league, but relative to his peers, his overall line is still pretty good.
What does this have to do with the Yankees? The organization also has a team in the Eastern League, they also have a pitcher’s ball park, and they also have a middle infield prospect in the offensive leaderboard. In fact, the 22 year old Jose Pirela has the third highest wRC+ (143) in the EL, only trailing Darin Ruf (164) and Eric Campbell (146). What makes Pirela different from these two players is his age and position, both Ruf and Campbell are 25 year olds playing firstbase. With so much offense coming out of a young second base prospect, Pirela’s prospect status has risen sharply this year.
When discussing Machado, Cameron also brought up the point that, according to Dan Szymborski’s 2011 Minor League Park Multipliers at Baseball Think Factory, the shortstop was able to produce those numbers in the most pitcher friendly park in the EL. It just so happens that Prince George’s Stadium in Bowie, the home ballpark of the O’s Double-A affiliate, was tied with Trenton’s ballpark in runs created. This means Pirela has now hit .353/.439/.579 in a ballpark that was tied for the most pitcher friendly park in 2011.
It’s been a breakout year for Pirela, and it’s time to start wondering when he’ll receive his call up. Unlike the Orioles though, the Yankees don’t need to risk developmental issues that would result from rushing him to the majors, but may consider Triple-A. With two seasons in Trenton, Pirela has spent plenty of time in Double-A, but with Corban Jospeh in Scranton and Robinson Cano in the majors, it’s fair to question if he’s being held back by his position. While Machado was held back by JJ Hardy in Baltimore, the Orioles made a decision to get his bat in the lineup by putting him at thirdbase, the Yankees could certainly do the same.
Pirela had a better offensive year than Machado, and has much more experience at Double-A, yet he’s now two levels below. This speaks well for the Yankees’ patience with prospects, but also exhibits antagonism between their organization philosophy and the Orioles’. In the broad sense of prospects, I could see a case for aggression or patience, but with 842 plate appearances in Double-A, and the type of offensive numbers he’s producing at 22, it’s time Pirela receives his own promotion to Triple-A.
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6 Responses to On Manny Machado’s Major League Promotion
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TIQ IQ
Seems to me we might like to see if he can play SS.
Or does this mean the Yanks may let Cano walk?
Honestly, as much as I love Robbie, I cant see giving him 7/$140m.
He can’t play SS. He was the regular SS in Trenton last year, and he was an error machine! (and that was after two years of primarily playing SS in Charleston and Tampa). He’s been much better defensively this year playing 2B, LF, and a little 3B. I’d rather see the Yanks move him to 3B or LF, which would give him a clearer path to the majors, if they really see a future for him.
Personally, I’m not so sure about him… This year’s offensive production seemed to come out of nowhere. He’s never hit like this before. The closest he came was in Tampa where he hit .295 with a .354 OBP, but he had only a .381 SLG with no homers. He started showing more power in the last couple years, but his average and OBP dropped significantly. Maybe he’s just putting it all together this year, but I’m still skeptical, thinking this could be a fluke year for him.
Absolutely great article. Very nice comparrison, and kodus for seeing it. It seems to me that the Yankees sort of hide the players they really want to be on the big team, while guys with big hype get traded and Pirella could be one of those guys. I dont think its a big deal that hes not in AAA, plenty of guys go from AA to MLB and do fine.
I mean it could be that the Yankees are keeping low key with Pirella so they can trade Cojo (a suspect fielder at best) and Adams (getting long in the tooth) while holding onto Pirella. If Pirella gets promoted to AAA and excells, he would be in demand. Why not get rid of Cojo and Adams for some quality major leaguers while holding onto Pirella?
THere is another part to this story that I think is hinted at…the Yankees can be slow to give a young guy a shot (it works great for them, but can be frustrating for fans). I think Phelps should have took Freddy’s spot in the rotation. Freddy would have missed one or two starts before the Yankees sent NOva down to work on his command. Instead they stuffed Phelps in the pen ruining any starting pitching depth they had, and now we watch Nova struggle every 5th day. Another example is trading for Ichiro. THere cant be a worse offensive LF in baseball, and his D hasnt been anything other than average. THe Yankees gave up DJ a potential cheap 5th starter for alot of teams to get him. I mean do any of us have any doubt that Dickerson is at least the equal of Ichiro at this point? I mean Ichiro has a 255/292/355 line, thats as bad as it gets for any postion which doesnt throw 95mph.
Very good piece but I’m surprised you didn’t extend the article beyond Pirella.
There are several position players at Trenton who are significantly outperferming their offense-challenged league. I would start with Adams, hitting around .320 and always considered a more than competent defender. (Don’t know how he’s faring at third, but that should only make him a more attractive big league option). Then, of course, there are the Almontes. Abe is a defensive wizard who had 30 steals before an injury last month. Zoilo, as has been noted, has been incandescent with 17 HRs. Both have great splits (against righties, as I recall) and should be candidates for platoon spots if Swisher is not re-signed. But of course the AAA roster is cluttered with retreads, and the Yankees have not even given these youngsters a shot at the higher level. Melky Mesa also deserved a promotion — and he did get it. But there’s four guys — all legit prospects — outperforming in a pitcher’s league. Let’s see if the Yankees ever give them a legit shot.
Great article and great comments. I learned several things. Thanks.
Understanding that their season is coming to an end soon, maybe the better use of his AA trap is to see if he can be developed into a super sub. Try him at SS, as mentioned, but also 3rd and perhaps outfield. That way he can be more likely to be on a path to the majors. But I agree with the statement about Cano. Love him at 5 years and 100 including next year. Over 5 years, including next year, let him walk.